Weekend Ratings Predictions


First, the results of last week’s predictions

Sport Game/Event Net
World Cup Germany/Argentina ABC
ABC drew a 3.5 final rating for the Germany/Argentina World Cup quarterfinal last Saturday morning, the highest rating for any non-USA World Cup match on the network.
World Cup Spain/Paraguay ABC
Last Saturday’s Spain/Paraguay World Cup quarterfinal did not fare quite as well as Germany/Argentina hours earlier, drawing a 3.2 final rating on ABC.
Tennis Wimbledon, Women’s Final NBC
Wimbledon, Men’s Final
Ratings plunged for the Wimbledon singles finals, as both the Women’s and Men’s Finals drew a 1.6 rating — down 30% and 58%, respectively, from last year. Both finals rank as the lowest rated since at least 1996.
MLB Mets/Nationals (77%), Marlins/Braves (14%) or Rays/Twins (8%) FOX
Stephen Strasburg‘s FOX debut did not do very well in the ratings. Regional MLB action featuring Mets/Nationals drew just a 1.5 rating on FOX last Saturday, up 7% from the comparable telecast last year (1.4), but tied as the fourth-lowest rating of the season for MLB on FOX.
Golf (M) AT&T National, Third Round CBS
AT&T National, Final Round
Like the Wimbledon singles finals, the AT&T National suffered major declines in the ratings. Final round coverage on Sunday was down 58% from last year, while Saturday’s third round action was down 44%.
NASCAR Coke Zero 400 TNT
Not only was last Saturday’s Coke Zero 400 just the fourth NASCAR race of the season to have an increase in ratings (up 16%), it also outdrew both World Cup games on ABC earlier in the day.
IndyCar Camping World Grand Prix ABC
ABC drew a 0.9 final rating for last weekend’s IndyCar Camping World Grand Prix, even with last year (0.9), but down a tick from both 2008 and 2007 (1.0).
MLS Sounders/Galaxy ESPN2
ESPN2 drew a 0.2 U.S. rating for last Sunday’s Sounders/Galaxy telecast; the match was the most-viewed (391,000 viewers) MLS telecast of the season on the network.
WNBA Storm/Sparks ESPN2
U.S. HH ratings were not available for last Saturday’s Storm/Sparks WNBA matchup on ESPN2. The game drew 259,000 viewers.

This week’s predictions:

Sport Game/Event Day/Time Net Prediction
World Cup Netherlands/Spain 2:30 PM Sunday ABC 7.7
Univ. 3.2
The 2010 FIFA World Cup comes to a close on Sunday, after weeks of substantial ratings gains fueled by Team USA. The numbers for matches not involving Team USA on ESPN/ABC have been solid, but not particularly huge. That said, Sunday’s Netherlands/Spain final should rank as one of the top sporting events of the year. In 2006, ABC drew a 7.0 rating for France/Italy (includes pre-match coverage); this year’s final should draw higher numbers. Expect Univision to also put in bigger numbers for Sunday’s final; in 2006, France/Italy drew a 2.6 rating on the network (again, includes pre-match coverage).
World Cup Germany/Uruguay 2:30 PM Saturday ABC 3.0
By virtue of a move from broadcast to cable, Saturday’s World Cup third-place game should have a solid increase in ratings. The 2006 Germany/Portugal third-place game drew a 1.8 U.S. rating on ESPN.
NASCAR Lifelock.com 400 7:30 PM Saturday TNT 3.3
Following a double-digit increase in ratings last week, NASCAR on TNT concludes with this Saturday’s Lifelock.com 400. Has NASCAR gained some sudden momentum, or was last week an isolated incident? Last year’s Lifelock.com 400 drew a 3.0 rating, the lowest ever for the race.
Golf (W) U.S. Women’s Open, Third Round 3 PM Saturday NBC 0.9
U.S. Women’s Open, Final Round 3 PM Sunday 1.3
Last year, the final round of the U.S. Women’s Open drew a less-than-spectacular 1.2 rating (third round coverage drew a 1.1). Will ratings for the event increase this year?
Golf (M) John Deere Classic, Third Round 3 PM Saturday CBS 0.8
John Deere Classic, Final Round 3 PM Sunday 1.4
Ratings are unlikely to impress for this week’s John Deere Classic. Last year, coverage of the event drew a 0.8 on Saturday (second round coverage) and a 1.6 on Sunday (third and final round coverage).
MLB Braves/Mets (46%), Cubs/Dodgers (38%) or Twins/Tigers (15%) 4 PM Saturday FOX 1.5
Entering its last telecast before the MLB All-Star break, FOX continues to put up mediocre numbers for MLB regular season games. Will this week be any different? Last year, regional action featuring Yankees/Angels drew a 2.0.
WNBA WNBA All Stars/Team USA 3:30 PM Saturday ESPN 0.2
The WNBA All-Star Game returns to cable this year. This year’s game replaces the usual East/West format with the WNBA’s stars taking on the stars of Team USA. Can the format change boost the ratings beyond last year’s extremely low 0.4 on ABC?
Formula 1 British Grand Prix 12 PM Sunday FOX 0.7
The first two Formula 1 races of the year on FOX drew a 0.7 rating, not much worse than a typical IndyCar telecast on ABC. Expect similiar numbers for the British Grand Prix.

(Sports Business Daily)