Weekend Ratings Predictions

Posted by | 08/29/2010 at 3:07 am

Ratings predictions for this weekend’s sporting events, including preseason NFL action on FOX and CBS, the Little League World Series on ABC and The Barclays on CBS.

First, the results of last week’s predictions












Sport Game/Event Net
Prediction
Rating
NFL Vikings/49ers NBC
6.0
6.7
Last Sunday’s Vikings/49ers NFL exhibition game, featuring the preseason debut of returning Vikings QB Brett Favre, drew a 6.7 final rating on NBC — up 3% from the network’s second preseason game last year, Bears/Broncos (6.5). The 6.7 rating is the third-highest for an NFL preseason game in the past six years.
NASCAR Irwin Tools Night Race ABC
3.6
3.5
In its NASCAR season debut, ABC drew a 3.5 final rating for last Saturday’s Irwin Tools Night Race — up 6% from last year (3.3) and up 17% from 2008 (3.0). Keep in mind ESPN aired the race in those years.
MLB Braves/Cubs, Angels/Twins or Rangers/Orioles FOX
1.9
1.8
Regional MLB action on FOX drew a 1.8 final rating last Saturday, down 22% from coverage featuring Yankees/Red Sox last year (2.3), but up 20% from the comparable telecast in ’08 (1.5).
Golf (M) Wyndham Championship, Third Round CBS
0.7
1.0
Wyndham Championship, Final Round
1.4
1.4
Ratings for the Wyndham Championship increased 25% on Saturday but declined 13% on Sunday.
WNBA Sparks/Storm ESPN2
0.1
–
U.S. HH ratings for last Saturday’s Sparks/Storm WNBA regular season game were not immediately available. The game drew 161,000 viewers.

This week’s predictions:


















Sport Game/Event Day/Time Net Prediction
NFL Steelers/Broncos 8 PM Sunday FOX
5.0
Sunday Night Football has been a boon to NBC this preseason. Will FOX have the same success? NBC owes much of its good fortune this year to some high-profile storylines: Terrell Owens facing his former team, the Cowboys, in the Hall of Fame Game (the game also featured the debut of Owens and Chad Ochocinco as teammates) and Brett Favre‘s preseason debut last Sunday, just days after he announced he would return to the Vikings. This week’s Steelers/Broncos game on FOX does not quite have as much appeal. In Week 3 of last year’s preseason, NBC drew a 6.5 rating for a Bears/Broncos Sunday night game.
NFL Cowboys/Texans 8 PM Saturday CBS
3.5
Even though the ratings are not likely to be stellar, look for Saturday’s Cowboys/Texans preseason matchup on CBS to have a solid increase in ratings over Chargers/Falcons last year (2.7).
Golf (M) The Barclays, Third Round 3 PM Saturday CBS
1.4
The Barclays, Final Round 2 PM Sunday
1.9
Unless Tiger Woods somehow manages to win, expect sizable declines for The Barclays on CBS. Last year, when Woods won the tournament, CBS drew ratings of 1.9 (Saturday) and 3.2 (Sunday).
LLWS U.S. Championship Game 4 PM Saturday ABC
1.7
Originally slated to air in primetime, the U.S. Championship of the Little League World Series gets a late afternoon slot on ABC Saturday. Ratings are virtually guaranteed to increase from last year, when the game aired in the evening on ESPN2 (0.7).
LLWS Championship Game 3 PM Sunday ABC
2.7
In four of the past five years, the Championship Game of the Little League World Series has failed to draw a 3.0 final rating. To put that in perspective, the game topped 4.0 in four of the previous six years. Last year, the game drew a 2.4, the third-lowest for the Championship Game since at least ’97. Will this year’s game reverse the downward trend?
MLB Phillies/Padres (76%) or Twins/Mariners (24%) 4 PM Saturday FOX
1.8
Owners of the best record in the National League, the Padres take on the two-time defending NL champion Phillies on FOX Saturday. Will the ratings reflect the high quality matchup? Last year’s comparable telecast (feat. Mets/Cubs) drew a 1.6.
WNBA Mercury/Silver Stars Game 2 1 PM Saturday ESPN2
0.20
Storm/Sparks Game 2 3 PM Saturday
0.27
Liberty/Fever Game 2 8 PM Sunday
0.33
The WNBA Playoffs continue on ESPN2 this weekend with three Game 2s. While three of the four playoff teams in the West had losing records in the regular season, the conference still features arguably the highest-profile teams in the league — the defending champion Mercury, the big-market Sparks and the #1 seed Storm. That said, Sunday’s Liberty/Fever Game 2 could be the biggest draw of the weekend, owing to its Sunday night timeslot.

(Ratings From Sports Business Daily)