First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Bulls at Wizards. Prediction: 1.4. Final rating: 1.4. Prediction right on target — and not surprising. No Gilbert Arenas plus a 101-68 final score equals little national interest. The 1.4 rating is the lowest non-March rating for an NBA game ever.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs at Mavericks. Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 2.2. The 2.2 was about as good as the NBA could expect, considering the stark lack of promotion for the game. The game managed to scrounge up three million viewers, making it the seventh NBA game on ABC to draw three million viewers this season (out of nineteen games).
- MLB on FOX, Regional action. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 2.4. Not bad. Expect numbers around this level for the balance of the season.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Penguins/Senators or Rangers/Thrashers. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 1.0. A playoff telecast involving star Sidney Crosby and the large market New York Rangers (playing in separate games) gets as good a rating as the lowest ever rated NBA game.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Flames/Red Wings. Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 1.0. The combined rating of two playoff games on NBC (2.0) is lower than regular season baseball (2.4) and NBA (2.2) telecasts.
- NASCAR on FOX, Samsung 500. Prediction: 5.4. Final rating: 5.6. NASCAR’s ratings may be down from previous years, but numbers for races on FOX are still better than ratings for early round NBA and baseball playoff games. The Lakers and Yankees pale in comparison to Dale Jr. and Jeff Gordon.
- Women’s College Basketball Nat’l Championship Game, Rutgers/Tennessee (April 1). Prediction: 3.4. Final rating: 1.9. Rutgers may have been in the news because of the Don Imus controversy, but the actual basketball game the team participated in drew a disappointingly low rating on ESPN.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Heat at Bulls, 3:00 PM Saturday — The defending champions take on the team from the third largest media market in the country, in a rematch of a hotly contested first round series from last year. While that is a recipe for high ratings, consider this — the same two teams last year drew a 2.9 rating for Game 4 on ABC (in a weak 1:00 PM timeslot), and ABC has drawn ratings of 2.1 and 2.4 in the comparable 3:00 PM Saturday timeslot each of the last two seasons. Add in the fact that this game will be airing opposite Yankees/Red Sox on FOX, and look for these numbers to be less than fantastic. Prediction: 2.5.
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Lakers at Suns, 3:00 PM Sunday — The NBA gets what it wished for; Kobe Bryant and the L.A. Lakers take on Steve Nash and the Suns in a rematch of one of the best first round series ever. Last year, Lakers/Suns drew ratings of 3.4 and 4.3 on ABC (Games 1 and 4, respectively). Considering the history the two teams have, and the lack of competition on the airwaves during the timeslot, one would expect a high rating. However, one must take into account the fact that ABC has not drawn a 4 rating on the opening Sunday of the playoffs since 2003, when Lakers/Wolves drew a 4.1 rating. Prediction: 3.7.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox, 3:30 PM Saturday — The last time the Yankees and Red Sox met this early on FOX was April 16, 2004 in primetime. That game drew a 3.6 rating. Obviously, as this game is in the afternoon (and this year’s game is not coming on the heels of a seven-game ALCS), the number will be much lower. But, thanks to the tear Yankees star Alex Rodriguez is currently on, expect FOX to out duel the competing NBA and NHL Playoff games. Prediction: 3.1.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Flames/Red Wings Game 5, 3:00 PM Saturday — Yes, Detroit/Calgary is tied 2-2, making Game 5 a pivotal one. Unfortunately for the NHL, the game will air opposite an NBA Playoff game on ABC and Yankees/Red Sox on FOX. Add in the fact the game features a Canadian team, and all the ingredients point to a record low playoff rating. Prediction: 0.7.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Devils/Lightning, Game 6, 1:00 PM Sunday — The Rangers swept the Thrashers and the Senators thrashed the Penguins, meaning that NBC is left stuck with New Jersey and Tampa Bay. Expect this one to get outdrawn by the NBA Playoff game airing on cable in the same timeslot. Prediction: 1.1.
- NASCAR on FOX, Subway Fresh 500, 8:00 PM Saturday — Last year’s race under the lights drew a 4.8 rating. With only Magic/Pistons and Jazz/Rockets on ESPN to contend with (far less formidable than last year’s Bulls/Heat game), expect this to be one of the few NASCAR races with higher year-to-date ratings. Prediction: 5.3.
