Two games too soon for network executives, the Los Angeles Lakers were summarily trounced by the Phoenix Suns last night, 119-110, and eliminated from the playoffs.
The Lakers finished with the 7th best record in the Western Conference and a 42-40 record. The team only has one player of note, and that would be star player Kobe Bryant. Aside from Lamar Odom and Luke Walton, the rest of the Lakers roster is teeming with NBDL quality players ? far from the best the NBA has to offer.
The Dallas Mavericks finished with 67 wins this year. The Phoenix Suns exciting, high-paced brand of basketball has led them to the Conference Finals each of the last two years. The Miami Heat won the NBA Finals last year behind a legendary performance by Dwyane Wade ? and were promptly swept this year by the up and coming Chicago Bulls. The Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs are perennial title contenders. Even the Golden State Warriors, as of the time of this writing up 3 games to 2 on Dallas, are lighting up the NBA.
And still, the biggest draw in the NBA is the Los Angeles Lakers. Still, the highest rated games will involve the Lakers. Somehow, some way, a Lakers squad with very little talent is still the most popular team in the NBA. In fact, one could very easily tie the NBA?s ratings problems to the Lakers ? entirely.
Only once in the past four years has the NBA Finals drawn a double-digit average rating ? 2004. That year, the Shaq-Kobe-Malone–Payton Lakers were involved, as they were humiliated by the Detroit Pistons, 4-1. Not even the star-studded Miami Heat were able to come close to the 2004 number of 11.5; the 2006 Finals averaged a relatively paltry 8.5 rating, and the highest rated game (Game 6) could only muster a 10.1.
The most recent plunge in television ratings for the NBA occurred in 2005. Some may blame the Pacers/Pistons brawl for the huge drop in ratings from the 2004 Playoffs to the 2005 Playoffs, but that would be discounting the most important variable: the Lakers missed the playoffs that year.
During the first round of the 2005 NBA Playoffs, so far the only First Round not to involve the Lakers this decade, ABC drew ratings of 2.1, 3.1 and 2.9 for 76ers/Pistons Game 1, Nets/Heat Game 1 and Heat/Nets Game 4, respectively. The previous year, ABC drew ratings of 3.0 and 4.8 for two first round games ? and the game with a 3.0 rating was between Dallas and Sacramento.
In 2003 and 2004, the only years of the ABC era to involve a competitive Lakers team, ABC drew average ratings of 4.6 and 4.3 for playoff coverage. Since the Lakers have been broken up, ABC has averaged a 3.3 and a 3.8 for playoff coverage in 2005 and 2006, respectively.
The Lakers? success in the early part of this decade did not translate to the other teams in the league. For example, in 2004, ABC aired two playoff games that did not involve the Lakers, and both failed to draw even a 4.0 rating. Dallas/Sacramento Game 1 in the First Round drew a 3.0, and Minnesota/Sacramento Game 6 in the Semifinals drew a 3.9.
Since ABC took over as the network partner of the NBA, only seven non-Finals games that did not involve the Lakers have drawn at least a 4.0 rating: Dallas/Portland Game 7 in 2003 (4.6/12), Detroit/New Jersey Game 3 in 2003 (4.2/7), Detroit/Indiana 6 in 2005 (4.1/7), San Antonio/Phoenix Games 1 and 4 in 2005 (4.1/10 and 4.7/8, respectively), Cleveland/Detroit Game 7 in 2006 (6.1/14) and Detroit/Miami Game 4 in 2006 (5.5/9). It should be pointed out that four of those games aired in prime-time. Compare that to the nine non-Finals Lakers games (out of twelve total) that have drawn a 4.0 rating or higher.
ABC?s highest rated Finals involved the Lakers. ABC?s highest rated regular season game involved the Lakers (7.3/21 for Heat/Lakers on Christmas of ?04). ABC?s highest rated playoff game involved the Lakers (6.5 for Spurs/Lakers Game 6 in ?03). TNT?s highest rated Conference Final came when the Lakers dispatched the Timberwolves in 2004. Even today, while the numbers are far lower than they were two or three years ago, Laker games frequently outdraw the games of the other teams in the league.
During the most recent NBA season, NBA games on ABC involving the Lakers averaged a 2.7 rating, the best of any team in the league. During last year?s playoffs, the 7 seeded Lakers put a scare into the Phoenix Suns and injected life into television ratings. Game 6 of the First Round series set a record for the highest rated first round playoff game ever on cable, and Game 4 was (and still is) the highest rated first round playoff game in the past three years (with a 4.3/10 rating).
So why are the Lakers the NBA?s biggest draw? The obvious answer is that the team operates in the #2 media market in the country, and has one of the most polarizing, well-known athletes in sports on its roster. Furthermore, the team has a strong pedigree of winning, and was the dominant power in the NBA as recently as five years ago.
Still, with so many NBA teams doing so much better, and with so many new stars in the league, it has to worry David Stern that the Lakers are still the number one draw. After all, what does it say about the growth of the league when mainstream America prefers a bad Lakers team to teams like Phoenix, San Antonio or Detroit?
Certainly, the Lakers are not unique. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have dominated Major League Baseball television ratings; regular season games between the two teams draw ratings much higher than games featuring other teams. That being said, the Yankees and Red Sox are, at the very least, contenders to make ? or win ? the World Series on a yearly basis. The last time the Lakers were contenders for an NBA crown was when Shaq was still wearing #34.
While it is never healthy for a league to depend on one or two teams for good ratings, baseball does find itself in better position than the NBA. At least there is a possibility of the Yankees or Red Sox making an LCS or World Series ? thereby inflating ratings well above the low levels of a Cardinals/Tigers series. The NBA cannot depend on the Lakers, as they could be several years away from even making the second round.
The league is in trouble, as long as its most recognizable team continues to get trounced in the first round. And barring some major offseason changes, it looks like the league is headed into several years of big-market purgatory.
