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Home › Features › Ratings predictions › Ratings prediction: Spurs/Cavs Game 4 will set all-time record low.

Ratings prediction: Spurs/Cavs Game 4 will set all-time record low.

by Jon Lewis
19 years ago
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NBA Finals on ABC, San Antonio at Cleveland Game 4, 9:00 PM Thursday — The highest rated game of this year’s positively putrid NBA Finals drew a 6.4/11. That was Game 3 — a relatively close game that just happened to be as watchable as a typical episode of 7th Heaven or Emily’s Reasons Why Not.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are trailing the San Antonio Spurs three-games-to-none in an NBA Finals that was never in doubt. Casual fans are not the only ones completely uninterested in this series; hardcore basketball fans, the type that post on countless message boards and vividly remember Olden Polynice, are barely interested as well. While Game 1 was the only ABC program in the Top 10 in prime-time last week, the numbers have been terrible; no game has even cracked the 6.5 threshold as of yet. Game 3 set a series high in viewership — 9.5 million tuned in to watch a horribly-played game by two teams seemingly intent on setting the game of basketball back to 2003 levels. By comparison, the 2006 NBA Finals averaged 12.5 million viewers.

Considering the poor ratings and considering the poor play, one would expect that barely anyone will be tuning into the final game of this series tonight. Cleveland and San Antonio are the #17 and #37 media markets in the nation, certainly not helping matters. The fact that the vast majority of the sporting public either dislikes or is indifferent to the Spurs also hurts the league. The presence of the Spurs could have been tolerated if countered by the brilliance of LeBron James. So far this series, however, the most spectacular action taken by James was giving his newborn child the middle name Maximus.

In order to tie the record low average set in 2003, tonight’s game needs to draw a 7.7 final rating. Considering the numbers for the first three games of this series, 6.3, 5.6 and 6.4, that seems impossible to achieve. In order to draw a 6.0 average rating, tonight’s game needs to score at least a 5.7. Even that will be a tall order for a small-market series with two teams who cannot shoot, cannot entertain, and cannot even draw the slightest interest from the sporting public.

Currently, the lowest rated NBA Finals game of all-time is Game 2 of the 2003 series between the Spurs and the New Jersey Nets. The second of four unwatchable Spurs championship series featured amazingly poor play, horrible shooting, lifeless basketball and a horrible three-man booth from ABC. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

The record low rating for Game 2 of that series was 5.2/10. That game aired on a Friday night, and certainly helped the NBA make the decision to switch from the Wednesday/Friday/Sunday format to the Thursday/Sunday/Tuesday schedule currently used. After tonight, that record low may no longer remain standing.

Prediction: 4.9.

Previous Post

Game 3 ties for fifth lowest-rated Finals game since ’81.

Next Post

Stern on the ratings.

Jon Lewis

Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.

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