First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NASCAR on ESPN, Pennsylvania 500. Prediction: 3.8. Final rating: 3.8. NASCAR continues to draw strong numbers on ESPN; the 3.8 made the race the highest rated sporting event of the weekend on broadcast or cable. Still, while the rating is huge for cable, it should be pointed out that the 3.8 is down 31% from the 5.5 for the race on the comparable date last year. That race, the Allstate 400, aired on broadcast (NBC), as opposed to cable.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action. Prediction: 2.4. Final rating: 2.2. The 2.2 is down 4% from last year; this marks the sixth straight week baseball on FOX has seen a year-to-date decline.
- X Games on ABC. Prediction: 0.9 and 1.0. Final rating: 0.8 and 1.1. Ratings for the X Games were mixed. While Saturday coverage was down 27%, from a 1.1 in ’06 to a 0.8 this year, Sunday coverage was up 10%, from a 1.0 in ’06 to a 1.1.
- NFL on NFL Network, Hall of Fame Game. Prediction: 1.4. Final rating: 1.2. The gap between the coverage area rating for the Steelers/Saints exhibition (3.4) and the actual national rating (1.2) indicates just how much of an issue distribution still is for the NFL Network. The 1.2 rating is down 82% from last year, when the Hall of Fame game drew a 6.8 rating on NBC.
This week’s predictions:
- PGA Championship on CBS, 2:00 PM Saturday and Sunday — The PGA Championship seems to have snuck up on a sports world still buzzing from Barry Bonds‘ 756th home run. Still, expect a solid rating for the final major on the golf calendar. Last year, the event drew 4.9 and 7.0 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. Prediction: 5.1 and 7.5.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Dodgers/Cardinals, Pirates/Giants and Red Sox/Orioles is not a recipe to end a six-week ratings drought. FOX had been hoping that Barry Bonds would still be in striking distance of 756 on Saturday (hence the addition of two equally woeful teams, Pittsburgh and San Francisco, to the schedule). Prediction: 2.1.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Centurion Boats at The Glen, 2:00 PM Sunday — While ratings for NASCAR on ESPN should remain strong, expect a decent drop in the numbers for this week’s race. Prediction: 3.4.
- NFL on CBS, Bills at Saints, 8:00 PM Friday — Preseason football can draw big numbers, but not on Friday nights in the middle of August. Last year, a relatively star-studded Patriots/Falcons game on the comparable date drew a 3.5. Prediction: 2.7.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Seahawks at Chargers, 8:00 PM Sunday — Preseason football may fail on Friday nights, but with a captive Sunday night audience (and very little competition on the other networks) expect relatively big numbers. Prediction: 5.2.
- WNBA on ABC, Fever at Shock, 1:30 PM Sunday — Two regular season games on ABC drew a 0.6 average rating on the comparable weekend last year; expect even lower numbers this time around. Prediction: 0.4.
