Ratings predictions on a busy weekend, including the marquee Cowboys-49ers Sunday Night Football game, the start of the MLB Division Series, the “Red River Rivalry” and the WNBA Finals.
Can Cowboys-49ers live up to its potential on the field, and in the ratings?
Coming off of an unusually strong outing last week for Chiefs-Jets, NBC has a good chance of repeating that success this weekend as the Cowboys face the undefeated 49ers. These tradition-rich franchises are historic rivals with a recent history of playoff matchups and high expectations for this season. If any matchup can meet or exceed the high bar set last week — nearly 25 million Nielsen-measured viewers — it is this one, at least on paper.
Games are of course not played on paper, and so far this season, the Cowboys have been too good for the networks’ own good. Dallas has been featured in three windows this season, winning by 40, 20 and 35 points respectively. (The Cowboys’ most competitive game this season, a 12-point loss to Arizona, was the secondary game of a window that featured Kansas City’s rout of Chicago in most markets.) Not coincidentally, each telecast averaged fewer viewers than last year, making the Cowboys — unthinkably — something of a ratings drag.
Oddsmakers expect a close game (the 4-0 49ers are favored by a field goal), meaning that this week will likely be a different story. Even if it is somehow another rout, viewership should at least increase over last year’s mere 15.9 million viewers for Bengals-Ravens. If the game lives up to its potential, then expect viewership to meet last year’s heights — and perhaps beyond.
NFL Sunday Night Football: Cowboys-49ers (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 25.27M Nielsen-measured viewers.
The Chiefs and Jets have each been featured in three of the six most-watched NFL windows this season, including their head-to-head matchup last week. This week, the teams headline the CBS national window as Kansas City faces Minnesota and New York takes on Denver. Given the state of the Vikings and Broncos, neither of these matchups are particularly alluring. Nevertheless, expect another audience in the 22-24 million viewer range.
NFL national window: Chiefs-Vikings or Jets-Broncos (4:25p Sun CBS). Prediction: 22.12M.
Can the MLB Postseason overcome a low-profile field?
It is less-than-ideal for the Texas Rangers to open their postseason directly opposite the Texas-Oklahoma “Red River Rivalry,” but such is life in the MLB Postseason, where dodging football is simply not always possible. The bigger problem for baseball this October is a postseason field light on marquee teams. Fully half of the Division Series field — the Orioles, Twins, Rangers and Diamondbacks — is comprised of teams with little recent success. That lack of familiarity is a double-edged sword; there is the potential for compelling underdog stories, but no guarantee those stories resonate with a casual audience.
The other half is stacked with teams who have made the World Series just in the prior three seasons, the Dodgers (2020), Braves (2021), Astros (2021 and 2022) and Phillies (2022). That sounds promising until one remembers that those World Series rank as the three least-watched on record.
For this year’s postseason — the first since 2014 to not feature the Red Sox or Yankees — the on-field play will have to be the draw. At least so far, that has not been the case. All four Wild Card series ended in sweeps, and viewership was unsurprisingly down double-digits. Baseball will need some five and seven-game series in order to salvage what has been a down year.
As far as Saturday’s Division Series openers, expect a mixed bag. The college football competition will hurt, but Saturday is still better for ratings than last year’s Tuesday afternoon start. At the same time, last year’s numbers were boosted by a FOX game (Phillies-Braves: 2.83M) and the presence of the Yankees, whose opener against Cleveland towered above the rest with 5.35 million.
MLB Division Series Game 1: Rangers-Orioles and Twins-Astros (2 and 4p Sat FS1), Phillies-Braves and Diamondbacks-Dodgers (6 and 9p Sat TBS). Predictions: 2.20, 2.42, 2.98 and 2.84M.
Expect the most-watched Red River Rivalry in 14 years
For the first time this season, Colorado will not register on the college football ratings charts. The Buffaloes are playing on the Pac-12 Network Saturday, a channel that is neither Nielsen-rated nor particularly easy to access. Thus, the big ratings story this weekend figures to be Oklahoma facing Texas in the rivals’ highest-ranked meeting since 2011. Not counting their meeting in the 2018 Big 12 title game (10.16M), the rivals most-watched matchup of recent years was their 2019 game that averaged 7.25 million. Given the Longhorns’ resurgence (and the addition of out-of-home viewing since 2019), it seems likely that this year’s matchup will surpass that mark to rank as the highest for the rivalry since 2009 (8.71M). Last year’s game, a 49-0 Texas rout, averaged just 3.36 million.
CFB: #12 Oklahoma-#3 Texas (Noon Sat ABC). Prediction: 7.56M.
Can the WNBA maximize viewership for its dream Finals?
There has never been a WNBA Finals with as much anticipation as this year’s matchup of defending champion Las Vegas and “superteam” New York. It has been 20 years since a single WNBA Finals game has averaged a seven-figure audience — Detroit over Los Angeles in Game 2 of the 2003 series (1.28M) — and if any series can end that streak, it is this one.
As ever, the league has done itself no favors. While two of the first three games are scheduled to air on ABC, marking the first final since 1999 with multiple games on broadcast television, those games are set for NFL Sundays. Not even the World Series bothers to compete on NFL Sundays anymore.
The aforementioned 2003 final was the first to stretch into the NFL season, and it is no coincidence that viewership has fallen off since. Prior to 2003, the Finals ended around Labor Day weekend, and ten of the 11 most-watched Finals games in league history are from that 1997-2002 era. Indeed, four of the five most-watched have involved the Liberty, who prior to this year had not been to the Finals since 2002. (The defunct Comets, who folded in 2008, played in each of the top five and six of the top seven games.) For as much momentum as the WNBA appears to have, trying to build an audience opposite NFL games is akin to running with a parachute.
Due to the NFL competition, it is the case that the WNBA generally draws better in the regular season than it does for the biggest games of the year. It would take a mere 595,000 viewers — less than ABC’s regular season average of 627,000 — for Sunday’s Game 1 to rank as the most-watched Finals opener since 2000 (Comets-Liberty: 872K). Such a superlative would generate celebratory headlines, but for a game of this made-for-TV Finals to clock in below any in the regular season (the most-watched was Wings-Sparks with 733K in June) would qualify as textbook failure to maximize one’s audience. Perhaps Game 1 will overcome the NFL competition and generate a season-high audience, but that will be easier said than done.
WNBA Finals Game 1: Liberty-Aces (3p Sun ABC). Prediction: 672K.
Previous predictions
— CFB: Colorado-Oregon. Prediction: 12.56M; result: 10.03M.
— CFB: Ohio State-Notre Dame. Prediction: 10.26M; result: 9.98M (Nielsen).
— CFB: Mississippi-Alabama. Prediction: 4.48M; result: 4.61M.
— CFB: Iowa-Penn State. Prediction: 3.45M; result: 2.75M.
— CFB: FSU-Clemson. Prediction: 5.92M; result: 6.71M.
— NFL: mostly Bears-Chiefs. Prediction: 22.75M; result: 24.32M.
— NFL: Eagles-Buccaneers. Prediction: 13.02M; result: 13.72M.
— NFL: Rams-Bengals. Prediction: 8.98M; result: 8.99M.
— MLB: Giants-Dodgers. Prediction: 727K; result: 773K.
— NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: Texas. Prediction: 1.75M; result: 2.00M.
