Ratings predictions and analysis for what should be a highly-viewed 48 hours in college basketball, highlighted by the much-anticipated rematch of last year’s LSU-Iowa women’s national championship.
Women’s tournament viewership continues to surge
Last year’s NCAA women’s basketball tournament was a ratings hit by any historical standard and this year’s version is obliterating the year-ago pace. Through the first two rounds, the tournament was averaging 812,000 viewers, more than double the same point last year.
Caitlin Clark and Iowa were the driving force behind last year’s ratings success and remain so. The Hawkeyes’ first two tournament games averaged a whopping 4.1 million viewers, nearly five times last year’s average of 729,000. In particular, their narrow escape against West Virginia averaged 4.90 million and an opening round rout of #16 seed Holy Cross averaged 3.23 million, the two largest audiences ever for the women’s tournament outside of the Final Four. The game against Holy Cross — again, a 16 seed — averaged more viewers than UConn’s most recent national championship victory in 2016 (2.97M). The West Virginia game averaged more viewers than every national title game from 2005-22.
It is worth noting that Iowa was an unusually strong draw a year ago. To not just build on that already-elevated audience, but increase it several times over, is unusual to say the least.
Make no mistake, no team draws like Iowa. Yet the good times are not limited to the Hawkeyes. If Clark and company have been the rising tide, there have been no shortage of boats lifted in their wake — among them the ocean-liners of LSU, USC and UConn. This year’s tournament has delivered the five largest first or second round audiences on record, topped by the two previously-mentioned Iowa games. The other three were UConn-Syracuse (2.05M), LSU-Middle Tennessee (2.01M) and USC-Kansas (1.76M). All three games outdrew Iowa’s second round win over Georgia last year, which was the high heading into this season.
In other words, not only is this year’s Iowa squad outdrawing last year’s version, so are the other marquee programs.
LSU-Iowa should deliver another ratings bonanza
If there was any question as to whether the good times would continue, they were answered on Saturday, when Iowa and defending champion LSU both won to set up a national title game rematch on Monday night.
Last year’s Iowa-LSU game may well be remembered as the women’s basketball equivalent of the 1979 Magic vs. Bird NCAA men’s final, still the most-watched college basketball game ever measured by Nielsen. With its audience of nearly ten million viewers, the Tigers’ win blew past any reasonable expectations and delivered the largest women’s pro or college basketball audience in the Nielsen people-meter era (dating back to 1988). (Prior to that point, the 1983 and ’86 title games averaged more viewers.) Even just six or seven million would have constituted a historic high.
It is highly unlikely that Monday’s rematch will be as big a draw. The Elite Eight is not the National Championship and ESPN is not ABC. Nonetheless, in a primetime slot unopposed by any men’s tournament action, set expectations high. Outside of last year’s national title game, one would have to go back to the CBS era of the 1990s to find any women’s tournament audience above the seven million mark. Between the national attention for last year’s game (not just during, but especially afterward), the sheer number of storylines and familiar names, and the expectation of a high quality of play, look Monday’s game to easily clear that bar.
NCAA women’s basketball tournament regional final: #3 LSU – #1 Iowa (7:15p Mon ESPN). Prediction: 8.10 million viewers.
As previously noted, Iowa-LSU is the headliner but the undercards are no slouches. In the alternate reality in which Caitlin Clark never becomes the face of the game, Monday’s matchup of USC’s JuJu Watkins and UConn’s Paige Bueckers would be considered among the most tantalizing in women’s tournament history. Fueled by a big lead-in and starpower in their own right, Monday’s UConn-USC nightcap should rank among the most-watched women’s games on record.
NCAA women’s basketball tournament regional final: #2 UConn – #1 USC (9:15p Mon ESPN). Prediction: 5.79 million viewers.
Despite detractors, men’s game faring well
The recent success of the women’s game is a story in its own right, but has often been used as a way to criticize the men’s game as comparably lacking. Surging interest in the women’s game is credited to its returning stars and resulting continuity, a contrast to the ‘one-and-done’ era men’s game. If the women’s game is a rising tide, the argument goes, the men’s game is a sinking ship. There was some evidence for that last year, as just one day after last year’s women’s final hit a record-high, the UConn-San Diego State men’s final hit a record-low.
Heading into this year’s tournament, there has been some speculation (including by this writer) that under the right conditions, the women’s final could outdraw that of the men. Perhaps spurred by such suggestions, there seems to be a misconception about just how close the audiences are for these events. (Tony Kornheiser’s suggestion on PTI last Monday that Iowa-West Virginia might outdraw any of the men’s games that weekend is but one example.)
Through the second round of each tournament, men’s games were averaging 2.98 million viewers, more than tripling women’s games (812K). If not growing at nearly the pace of the women’s game, viewership for the men was also up from last year — +1% — keyed by a UNC-Michigan State second round game that had more viewers on CBS (10.02M) than the record-setting LSU-Iowa title game a year ago.
None of the above is to diminish the success of the women’s game, but to simply suggest that reports of the men’s demise are premature. The men’s tournament remains arguably the biggest non-NFL event in sports, even if the Final Four and National Championship do not always stick the landing.
Combo of Duke, Easter, should deliver for CBS
A reminder of that status should come Sunday when perennial draw Duke faces #11 seeded ACC champion NC State in the Elite Eight. The late Sunday Elite Eight window has long been one of the most-watched basketball games in a given year, though not lately. Since Michigan State’s upset of Zion Williamson-led Duke scored 16.2 million viewers in 2019, there have been only two games in that late Sunday window — North Carolina’s rout of 15 seed Saint Peter’s in 2022 (13.58M) and Miami’s ho-hum win over Texas last year (11.30M).
Viewership should surge back toward the 15 or 16 million mark this year, and not just because of Duke’s presence. This year’s game airs on Easter Sunday, which in the out-of-home era has become a day of elevated sports viewing. Easter two years ago featured the most-watched opening weekend NBA playoff game in 20 years. Last year, it was home to the most-watched final round of the Masters in five. This year, Duke-NC State will almost certainly give the NCAA men’s tournament its most-watched Elite Eight game in five years, and perhaps much longer. Any viewership figure higher than 2019 will be the best for an Elite Eight game since 2005.
Do not be surprised if the game is the most-watched basketball telecast of the year, including the men’s Final Four, women’s title game, NBA Finals and Olympics. Outside of football, there are not many sporting events that have cracked the 15 million mark since the wave of cancellations and postponements that decimated the industry four years ago.
NCAA men’s basketball tournament regional final: #11 NC State – #4 Duke. (4:55p Sun CBS). Prediction: 15.93 million viewers.
The Tennessee-Purdue undercard also figures to benefit from the Easter holiday. One possible complication is that there will be women’s Elite Eight games airing on ABC at the same time, which could take a bite out of the numbers. Expect a bigger-than-usual turnout nonetheless. Anything above 10.56 million (Michigan State-Louisville in 2015) would be the highest in the window since 2005.
NCAA men’s basketball tournament regional final: #2 Tennessee – #1 Purdue. (2:20p Sun CBS). Prediction: 11.09 million viewers.
