Reviewing the predictions made on this site last year, on a “Nostradamus scale” of 1 to 10.
Ratings
Thanks to the New York location and the possibility of snow, Super Bowl 48 between the Patriots and Saints earns a record 113 million viewers on FOX.
Nostradamus scale: 9 – Swing and a miss on the participating teams, but Super Bowl 48 did set an all-time viewership record with 112.2 million viewers.
NBC’s primetime coverage of the Winter Olympics is the second-lowest rated ever (13.0), ahead of only Turin in 2006. However, live figure skating boosts NBC Sports Network to record-highs, even surpassing the network’s coverage of the London Olympics in 2012.
Nostradamus scale: 9 – The Winter Olympics was indeed the second-lowest rated ever in primetime, edging Turin 12.3 to 12.2, and NBCSN had gains for its daytime Olympic coverage compared to London in 2012. However, figure skating was just one of several factors propelling NBCSN, and the network’s gains came with a few caveats (namely that late afternoon coverage in 2012 was excluded).
The final World Cup on ESPN/ABC builds on the record numbers set in 2010, averaging a 3.0 rating and over five million viewers on the two networks alone. Univision chips in an additional three million of its own, bringing the total average to eight million viewers. The World Cup final earns over 28 million viewers across ABC and Univision.
Nostradamus scale: 10 – The World Cup averaged 4.6 million viewers on ESPN/ABC and 3.5 million on Univision, equaling 8.1 million across the two families of networks.
The BCS era ends with a cable record 27.3 million viewers for the Auburn/Florida State championship game. ESPN also hits multi-year highs for the Rose, Sugar and Orange Bowls, with the Baylor/UCF Fiesta Bowl the only dud.
Nostradamus scale: 8 – The BCS title game had 26.1 million viewers, not quite a cable record. However, ESPN did hit a three-year viewership high for the Rose Bowl, a six-year high for the Orange, and a ten-year high for the Sugar. The Fiesta, as expected, was the only game to decline.
The NBA dodged the ratings nightmare of Pacers/Spurs in 2013 and does so again in 2014. However, the Thunder/Pacers NBA Finals hits a five-year low in the ratings, averaging an 8.6 over six games.
Nostradamus scale: 7 – Another swing and a miss on the participating teams, particularly the Pacers, but the NBA Finals did in fact hit a five-year low with a 9.3 average rating.
The NCAA Tournament Final Four semis hit an 11-year low in ratings and viewership on TBS, but the simulcasts on TNT and TruTV are strong enough to keep the overall numbers solid.
Nostradamus scale 7 – TBS alone averaged just 7.1 and 10.4 million viewers for its Final Four doubleheader, compared to 9.9 and 12.6 million in 2003, when tournament ratings sank due to coverage of the Iraq War. The rather low numbers were largely due to viewers tuning into TNT, expecting the traditional broadcast (the resulting confusion resulted in numerous Twitter complaints about biased announcers). Overall, the games combined for 11.7 and 16.3 million viewers – both multi-year lows, but not bad given they aired on cable.
With only twelve telecasts on the schedule – and all in primetime – FOX averages a six-year high 2.1 rating for regular season baseball. The Tigers/Cardinals World Series averages a 9.2 rating for seven games.
Nostradamus scale: 3 – FOX never released its average rating for Major League Baseball during the regular season, but the numbers were almost certainly terrible. The season included several of the least-watched baseball telecasts ever on primetime network TV, and the network twice dipped below a 1.0 rating. The seven-game Giants/Royals World Series flirted with a record low before Game 7 lifted the average to an 8.2 – the second-lowest ever.
More is less for the NHL, as all six “Stadium Series” games rank below the least-viewed Winter Classic.
Nostradamus scale 5 – If one includes last year’s Maple Leafs/Red Wings Winter Classic as part of the ‘Stadium Series,’ then this prediction was another swing and a miss. The game had 4.4 million viewers, tied as the second-largest NHL regular season audience on NBC since the network reacquired rights. The other five games, however, did in fact rank well below the least-watched Winter Classic.
TV Deals
ESPN, to the surprise of no one, holds onto NBA TV rights. In the new deal, the NBA Finals shifts from ABC to ESPN starting in 2017. Meanwhile, Fox Sports swipes the other NBA package from TNT, with Fox Sports 1 getting Thursday night doubleheaders, NBA All-Star Weekend, and most of the playoffs starting in the 2016-17 season. Turner Sports maintains its partnership with the league on NBA Digital (including NBA TV and NBA.com).
Nostradamus scale: 2 – Even when this prediction was written last year, the idea of FOX swiping NBA rights from Turner had become a bit of a stretch. Even so, few prognosticators imagined that FOX would be shut out of the NBA game completely. ESPN and Turner renewed their NBA rights for a whopping $2.6 billion per year, partly to keep FOX out of the mix.
Having acquired NBA TV rights, Fox Sports fades as a challenger in the Big Ten TV race. By the end of the year, ESPN is widely expected to hold onto its current package.
Nostradamus scale: 0 – FOX did not acquire NBA rights, and there has not been much buzz on the Big Ten TV deal this year.
Personnel Moves
In the struggle to find a good fit for Erin Andrews, FOX moves her from college football to the NFL full-time, with Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch and Andrews becoming the network’s official #2 broadcast team.
Nostradamus scale: 7 – FOX did in fact move Andrews to the NFL full-time, but not to the network’s ‘B’ team. After 12 years, Pam Oliver was dumped to make room for Andrews on the ‘A’ team with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.
FOX goes with a three-man booth on Major League Baseball games, adding Turner Sports’ John Smoltz and Tom Verducci to replace the retired Tim McCarver. Speaking of whom, McCarver ends up taking a small role on TBS, working occasional regular season games and one of the network’s Division Series.
Nostradamus scale: 8 – Another technically correct prediction; FOX went with a three-man booth for baseball, with Verducci and Harold Reynolds joining Buck. The network also hired Smoltz, but as the analyst for its ‘B’ team with Matt Vasgersian.
Fox Sports hires John Daly as a contributor for its golf coverage.
Nostradamus scale: 0 – Not yet.
Turner Sports taps Marv Albert for the NCAA Final Four semifinals, but CBS’ Jim Nantz continues to call the championship game. Greg Anthony and Steve Kerr work all three games.
Nostradamus scale: 0 – Nantz called both national semifinals on TBS.
Despite some rumblings about an overhaul, ESPN makes no major changes to its college football broadcast team entering the first playoff season. Chris Fowler stays put on “College Gameday,” and Brent Musburger remains the network’s lead play-by-play voice.
Nostradamus scale: -8 – Those rumblings were absolutely correct. ESPN replaced Musburger with Fowler in March, exiling the former to SEC Network. Musburger called just one game on ESPN/ABC during the regular season.
Miscellaneous
Fox Sports 1 shortens “Crowd Goes Wild” to a half-hour, replaces most of the “Fox Sports Live” panel, and by the end of the year unveils a new graphics package.
Nostradamus scale: 5 – FOX did not bother trying to save Crowd Goes Wild, dumping it entirely early in the year. The network did unveil a new graphics package.
With ESPN and Turner Sports providing multi-network presentations of the BCS title game and Final Four, respectively, simulcasts of big events become en vogue. ESPN puts Game 1 of the NBA Finals on ABC, ESPN and ESPNEWS, while FOX puts the Big Ten Championship Game on both FOX and Fox Sports 1.
Nostradamus scale: 0 – So far, the multi-network presentations have been limited to college football on ESPN and college basketball on Turner.
The NFL awards ESPN rights to a Wild Card playoff game starting in 2015.
Nostradamus scale: 10 – This was less of a prediction than it was a formality.
