First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX, Regional action. Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 2.4. A decent rating for an April baseball game. The 2.4/5 was higher than the Suns/Lakers NBA game on ABC the next day (2.3/6), but down 17% from last year’s season opener, which occurred on May 20.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers at Pistons. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.8. Despite LeBron James’ presence, Cleveland/Detroit was only able to tie the 1.8 rating that the comparable Indiana/Detroit game drew last year. ABC may want to think about doing away with 1:00 PM starts next season; the highest rated game so far this season in the 1:00 – 3:30 timeslot was a 2.1 for Suns/Cavaliers on January 28.
- NBA on ABC, Suns at Lakers. Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 2.3. Suns/Lakers came to within .1 of last week’s Suns/Mavericks game; the game was also up 28% from the comparable date in 2005 (there was no comparable timeslot last season).
- The Masters on CBS, Final Round. Prediction: 9.7. Final rating: 9.1. Tiger was indeed in contention, and the numbers were superb. Still, golf’s biggest event has not drawn a double-digit rating since 2001.
- NHL on NBC, Regional action. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 0.9. In the two weeks since tying an NBA game in the ratings, NHL telecasts on NBC have failed to draw even a 1.0 rating.
- MLS on ABC, United/Rapids. Prediction: 0.3. Final rating: 0.5. As I predicted, Major League Soccer drew a pitiful rating on ABC. The 0.5 tied the MLS opener with Cycling on NBC and the John Wooden Awards Show on CBS as the lowest rated sporting events of last weekend.
- Major League Baseball on ESPN2, Mets/Cardinals (April 1). Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 2.3. For the first time, the baseball season opener on ESPN2 beat both women’s Final Four games on ESPN. The 2.3 rating came to within .1 of the Mavs/Suns game on network television (ABC) that afternoon.
Ratings for the Women’s National Championship Game between Rutgers and Tennessee are still unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC: Bulls at Wizards, 1:00 PM Sunday — No Gilbert Arenas and no Caron Butler make the Washington Wizards a decidedly unsexy pick for a Sunday afternoon. Expect March ratings for what could end up as a blowout. Prediction: 1.4.
- NBA on ABC: Spurs at Mavericks, 3:30 PM Sunday — If ESPN/ABC cared even slightly about the NBA, there would be at least marginal hype for this game. As it is, the vast majority of the sporting public will likely not even know the game is on. Add the fact that the Mavericks and Spurs might both be resting players, and this game becomes less than what it could have been. Prediction: 1.9.
- MLB on FOX: Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — No competition, no problem. Prediction: 2.8.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC: Penguins at Senators Game 2, 3:00 PM Saturday — Without baseball to compete against last year, the first Saturday of the playoffs drew a 1.1/3. This year, NBC has Sidney Crosby to help boost ratings — however, the regional telecast will air opposite FOX Saturday Baseball. Prediction: 0.9.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC: Flames at Red Wings Game 2, 1:00 PM Sunday — The NBA may be tanking on ABC, but even a bad game between Chicago and Washington will serve as a formidable opponent to a playoff game involving a Canadian team. Last year’s comparable game between the Oilers and Red Wings drew a 1.4/4, a hefty rating for hockey. However, there was no NBA game airing in that timeslot. Prediction: 1.0.
- NASCAR on FOX, Samsung 500, 1:30 PM Sunday — With only the NBA to battle this Sunday, expect NASCAR to have its typical decent numbers. Prediction: 5.4.
