Much has been made of declining ratings for the World Series, but Major League Baseball’s regular season is in arguably worse condition.
As the FOX broadcast network enters its 21st season of MLB coverage, the “Game of the Week” has never had as diminished a profile. Last year’s regular season coverage averaged a 1.4 rating and 2.1 million viewers on the network, up a tick in ratings and 10% in viewership from the previous year’s record low 1.3 and 1.9 million, but the second-lowest averages ever for baseball on broadcast television. Though it was the first season since 2003 to post a year-over-year increase, one could argue there was no place to go but up.
Regular season ratings on FOX have collapsed over the past decade. Compared to 2006, the 2015 season declined 42% overall (2.4 to 1.4), 50% among adults 18-49 (1.0 to 0.5), and 52% each among African Americans (2.3 to 1.1) and Hispanics (2.1 to 1.0). The median age soared from 51 in 2006 to 60 in 2014, before rebounding to 58 last year.
Compared to other network sports properties, MLB on FOX was closer last year to the NHL on NBC (0.9) than the NBA on ABC (2.2). After topping its NBA counterpart each year from 2003 to 2007, MLB on FOX has trailed every year since — and by more than a third in each of the past five.
The downturn has not been sharp or sudden, but instead a gradual erosion. Just twice over the past decade have ratings dropped double-digits from the previous year — 2008 (-14%) and 2014 (-19%). Unlike in the NBA, where ratings soared after LeBron James joined the Miami Heat and fell back to earth when he left, there is no easy explanation. One could point to the demise of the Yankees, but ratings set a record-low in the season they last won the World Series (2009) and then tied that mark in the season afterward.
The launch of Baseball Night in America, an eight-week stretch of primetime windows that started in 2013, has done nothing to lift the numbers. Neither has a reduced schedule that resulted in just 11 windows last season, likely the fewest ever for baseball on broadcast TV.
It should be noted that FOX is not alone in seeing viewer erosion. ESPN averaged a 0.7 and 1.1 million for its baseball coverage last year (not including ESPN2), the network’s lowest figures since at least 2005. Ratings and viewership dropped 42% and 39%, respectively, from the 2007 season, while median age increased five years over that span (from 48 to 53). TBS has saw its baseball viewership drop nearly in half from 615,000 in 2009 to 309,000 in 2014, though the numbers perked back up to 413,000 last season.
Yet even a generation after its heyday, the “Game of the Week” remains bigger than any window on cable. FOX is still the highest rated and most-watched MLB broadcaster, averaging more viewers during its record-low 2014 season than ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball has in the past four. The decline of MLB’s regular season showcase may not be as big a headline as that of the World Series, but it is not a great sign for the sport. As FOX embarks on a new season, it can pin its hopes on the Chicago Cubs’ hot start, or on the possibility that the numbers have already hit rock bottom.
