First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- Indianapolis 500 on ABC. Prediction: 4.6. Final rating: 4.3. Rain certainly did not help the fortunes of the Indy Racing League’s biggest event.
- NASCAR on FOX, Coca-Cola 600. Prediction: 5.3. Final rating: 4.5. Ratings for NASCAR races have been declining steadily for two years now; how long before NASCAR goes down the same path of MLB and the NBA?
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, San Antonio at Utah Game 3. Prediction: 2.3. Final rating: 3.1. Not only was this the the lowest rated Conference Final game ever to air in primetime on network TV, but the two games of this series on ABC were easily the two lowest rated Conference Final games ever on network TV.
- NBA Playoffs on TNT, Detroit at Cleveland Game 3. Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 2.9. The first three games of Pistons/Cavaliers drew mediocre ratings. However, with Cleveland up 3-2, and in the wake of an epic Game 5, one would expect the numbers to increase for Game 6 and a possible Game 7.
- Stanley Cup Finals on Versus, Ottawa at Anaheim Game 1. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 0.7. The ratings for the Stanley Cup Finals are embarrassing; as mentioned before in this space, Game 2 of the series was watched in fewer households than the 2006 WNBA All Star Game.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on TNT, Detroit at Cleveland Game 6, 8:30 PM Saturday — Coming off of LeBron James‘ performance in Game 5, one would expect big numbers for Game 6. It is safe to assume that Game 6 on cable will at least double the rating for Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals on broadcast. Prediction: 3.8.
- NBA Playoffs on TNT, Cleveland at Detroit Game 7, 8:00 PM Monday* — ABC is rooting for Cleveland. TNT is rooting for Detroit. For the latter, it does not matter who wins the series, as long as there is a Game 7. The last time the Conference Finals went seven games was in 2005, also on a Monday night on TNT. That game, between the Heat and Pistons, drew a stellar 6.2 national rating — the highest rated playoff game ever on cable. Prediction: 5.9.
- Stanley Cup Finals on NBC, Anaheim at Ottawa Game 3, 8:00 PM Saturday — The NHL made a bad move by starting the Stanley Cup Finals a week earlier than last year. Last year, no Stanley Cup Final game had to compete with an NBA Playoff game. This year, Games 3 and 4 could potentially go up against Games 6 and 7 of the Cavaliers/Pistons series. Take into account the fact that the numbers are already atrocious for this series, and things do not look good for NBC. Prediction: 1.5.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees at Red Sox, 3:30 PM Saturday — It would seem that the vast majority of the sporting public is sick of seeing these two teams, especially when one of them is having such a bad season. That being said, whenever they play, the ratings are stellar. Prediction: 3.3.
- NASCAR on FOX, Autism Speaks 400, 1:00 PM Sunday — NASCAR ratings may be off from last year, but races are typically the highest rated sporting events of the week, beating the NBA Playoffs and baseball. Last year’s comparable race aired on FX and drew a 4.6 rating. Prediction: 5.0.
- French Open on NBC, 1:00 PM Saturday and Sunday — Serena Williams is the only American left in Paris, and the ratings should reflect a national disinterest. In terms of television ratings, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons of tennis, respectively; do not expect those two to help boost the numbers. On the comparable weekend last year, the French Open drew ratings of 1.1 and 1.3 on Saturday and Sunday; expect more of the same this year. Prediction: 0.9 and 1.1.
