The first week of the NFL season highlights this weekend’s ratings predictions. Also on tap, Oklahoma-Ohio State, the U.S. Open singles finals, and Major League Baseball.
First, Last Week’s Results
— CFB: Alabama-FSU. Prediction: 7.0; result: 6.9
— CFB: Michigan-Florida. Prediction: 4.5; result: 4.9
— CFB: West Va.-Virginia Tech. Prediction: 3.0; result: 2.9
— CFB: Texas A&M-UCLA. Prediction: 2.3; result: 1.9
— CFB: Tennessee-Ga. Tech. Prediction: 2.3; result: 2.9
— MLB: Red Sox-Yankees. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.2
— NASCAR: Darlington. Prediction: 2.1; result: 1.8
This Week’s Predictions (All Times ET)
NFL Sunday Night Football: Giants-Cowboys (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
Coming off the lowest rated NFL Kickoff Game in nine years, NBC is looking to the Giants-Cowboys rivalry to salvage its Week 1 slate. The Cowboys enter the new season as legitimate contenders, boasting a pair of second-year offensive stars in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The league has managed to transform assault accusations against Elliott into yet another protracted conflict over player discipline, turning an otherwise serious story into the kind of circus that was its two-year pursuit of Tom Brady. The back-and-forth surrounding Elliott’s status this week has undoubtedly generated even more attention for the game than usual. The potential absence of Odell Beckham Jr. may take some of the luster off the matchup, but expect good ratings nonetheless. Last year’s Week 1 SNF game, Patriots-Cardinals, had a 13.1 rating. Two years ago, the same Giants-Cowboys matchup had a 15.4 in the window. Prediction: 14.8.
NFL Late DH Window: Mostly Seahawks-Packers (4:25 PM Sun FOX)
Two of the NFL’s most prominent teams take center stage in the league’s highest rated TV window. The Seattle-Green Bay matchup has become a reliably solid draw and should give FOX some good numbers Sunday. That may not be enough to match last year’s high bar, a 15.5 for Giants-Cowboys. Prediction: 15.0.
NFL Singleheader: Various teams and times (1 or 4 PM Sun CBS)
The biggest intrigue on CBS this weekend will be the debut of Tony Romo on the network’s top NFL broadcast team. Only 23% of the country will get Romo’s call of the Raiders-Titans game, and realistically, few people tune in just to watch an announcer. Still, expect ratings to rise from last year’s 9.3, the lowest for the Week 1 singleheader since 2012. Prediction: 9.7.
CFB: #5 Oklahoma-#2 Ohio State (7:30 PM Sat ABC)
For the second straight week, ABC’s Saturday Night Football presents a top five matchup of traditional powers. When Oklahoma and Ohio State played each other last year, the game had a 3.4 rating — not eye-popping, but impressive under the circumstances. The game aired on FOX (which typically pulls lower CFB ratings than ABC), started 90 minutes late due to inclement weather, and was a blowout. This year’s game should put up significantly stronger numbers, barring another blowout, though competition from other games and weather coverage might suppress the numbers. Prediction: 5.2.
CFB: #14 Stanford-#6 USC (8:30 PM Sat FOX)
With ABC certain to take top honors Saturday night, look for FOX to place a distant-but-respectable second in primetime for Stanford against top ten-ranked USC. Ratings should more-than-double last year’s 1.0 for BYU-Utah. Prediction: 2.2.
CFB: Fresno State-#1 Alabama (3:30 PM Sat ESPN2)
Alabama’s drawing power is never more evident than when they play on ESPN2, usually against a team that rarely draws well otherwise. Last year, their ESPN2 games against Western Kentucky and FCS Chattanooga earned ratings of 1.4 and 1.5, easily the network’s two highest rated games of the season. Expect similar numbers for this week’s matchup with Fresno State, especially with the ESPN “mothership” otherwise occupied with tennis. Prediction: 1.5.
U.S. Open Women’s Final: Keys-Stephens (4 PM Sat ESPN)
For the first time since 2003, an American not named Venus or Serena Williams will win a Grand Slam title. Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens are not yet household names, but given the overall upward trend for the U.S. Open this year, their matchup Saturday should do well. The past two women’s finals set remarkably low bars — a 1.0 last year and a 1.1 in 2015. Prediction: 1.6.
U.S. Open Men’s Final: Nadal-Anderson (4 PM Sun ESPN)
Juan Martin Del Potro delivered the final finishing blow to this year’s U.S. Open men’s draw, eliminating Roger Federer and extinguishing what may have been the last chance to see a Federer-Nadal matchup at the event. The men’s draw had already been decimated by withdrawals — no Andy Murray, no Novak Djokovic, no defending champion Stan Wawkrina, not even one-time finalist Kei Nishikori. As a result, the largely anonymous Kevin Anderson is in the final. Even with Nadal on the other side of the net, expect ratings to fall below last year’s record-low of 1.1. Prediction: 0.9.
MLB: Mostly Yankees-Rangers (1 PM Sat FOX)
MLB on FOX returns Saturday with Yankees-Rangers in 90% of markets. The numbers still pale in comparison to earlier in the decade, but the Yankees have been moving the needle all season long. With both New York and Texas firmly in the Wild Card chase, expect ratings to improve over last year’s 1.0. Prediction: 1.2.
