Week 4 of the NFL season highlights this weekend’s ratings forecast. Also on tap, week five of the college football season, golf’s Presidents Cup, and the NASCAR playoffs.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NFL: Raiders-Broncos (4:25 PM Sun CBS)
Coming off their first playoff appearance since 2003, the Raiders will make as many as nine appearances this season either in primetime or the featured game of the 4:25 PM ET window, more-than-doubling last year. The first of those nine was a dud, with Oakland’s blowout loss to Washington last week scoring a 10.1 rating on NBC’s Sunday Night Football — down 14% from last year and the lowest Week 3 SNF rating since 2008. This week’s game will pull better numbers thanks to a higher-profile opponent and a stronger timeslot, but it seems likely that ratings will again drop to a multi-year low. Last year’s comparable window featured Cowboys-49ers and earned a 13.1 rating, the lowest for the Week 4 national window since 2008. Prediction: 11.8.
NFL: Colts-Seahawks (8:30 PM Sun NBC)
There are certain teams that find their way onto the primetime stage each year despite a history of generating mediocre ratings. The Bears and Jets have their market size to thank. The Colts have Andrew Luck, who as NBC’s luck would have it, is not playing this Sunday. That leaves the network with a forgettable 1-2 squad facing another 1-2 squad in a pretty unappealing matchup. Last year’s Chiefs-Steelers game set a low bar with a 10.3 rating. That bar may not have been low enough. Prediction: 9.5.
NFL: Mostly Rams-Cowboys or Panthers-Patriots (1 or 4 PM Sun FOX)
Most of the country will get the Cowboys against the surprising Rams or the Patriots against the once-relevant Panthers on FOX this weekend, a pretty decent slate for a singleheader. Expect ratings to comfortably surpass last year’s 9.4 on CBS. Prediction: 10.2.
CFB: #2 Clemson-#12 Virginia Tech (8 PM Sat ABC)
ABC’s Saturday Night Football is off to a hot start this season, with double-digit increases for each of its four telecasts. The good times should slow this week, with Clemson-Virginia Tech unlikely to match last year’s much-hyped matchup between Clemson and Louisville (5.5). Despite what should be a steep decline, expect the game to rank atop the college football charts this weekend. Prediction: 3.3.
CFB: Mississippi-#1 Alabama (9 PM Sat ESPN)
Mississippi-Alabama has delivered some strong ratings in recent years, largely due to the very real possibility that the Crimson Tide would lose. Mississippi’s upset wins scored a 3.7 in 2014 and a 4.6 in 2015 and Alabama’s narrow win last year had a 5.0. With Mississippi a four touchdown underdog and Alabama coming off of a low-rated blowout of Vanderbilt, it is a safe bet that this year’s game will not do as well. On the comparable day last year, Kentucky-Alabama had a 1.9 on ESPN. Prediction: 2.2.
CFB: Miami (OH)-#22 Notre Dame (5 PM Sat NBCSN)
For just the second time, Notre Dame football is headed to NBCSN. Given the network, matchup, and odd 5 PM ET timeslot, this game should be the lowest rated Notre Dame home game since NBC acquired rights. The current mark is TV sports’ Mendoza line, a 1.0. Prediction: 0.7.
Golf: Final Day of Presidents Cup (Noon Sun NBC)
The only headline coming out of the Presidents Cup thus far has been the presence of actual presidents — Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. The tournament itself has been nothing to write home about, with the U.S. opening such a big lead entering the weekend that it could clinch the tournament on Saturday. Final day coverage in 2015 had a 0.8 rating, but that year the tournament took place overseas. In 2013, the last time it took place in the U.S., the final day delivered a 1.9. Prediction: 1.3.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: Dover (3 PM Sun NBCSN)
NASCAR entered 2017 looking to rebound from the previous year’s historically low ratings. Instead, this season has been even worse. Entering Dover this weekend, 23 of 27 races have declined, 22 to an all-time or decade-plus low. The past three races — Richmond, Chicagoland and New Hampshire — have been the lowest rated at any track since 2000, each sinking double-digits from last year’s already-low numbers. There is no reason to believe that ratings will improve this week. Last year’s race had a 1.5. Prediction: 1.4.
Last Week’s Results
— NFL: Mostly Bengals-Packers. Prediction: 11.8; result: 12.2
— NFL: Oakland-Washington. Prediction: 12.4; result: 10.1
— CFB: Alabama-Vanderbilt. Prediction: 3.6; result: 1.9
— CFB: TCU-Oklahoma State. Prediction: 1.7; result: 1.5
— CFB: Notre Dame-MSU. Prediction: 2.4; result: 2.1
— WNBA: Sparks-Lynx Game 1. Prediction: 0.44; result: 0.39
— PGA: Tour Championship. Predictions: 1.1 and 1.7; results: 1.1 and 1.4
