PGA Torrey Pines and NFL Pro Bowl ratings predictions. Also on tap, a top-five college basketball matchup, a potential NBA Finals preview and Roger Federer‘s attempt at another Grand Slam title.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
PGA at Torrey Pines (4 PM Sat & 3 PM Sun CBS)
SAN DIEGO, CA – JANUARY 25: Tiger Woods watches his tee shot on the South Course during the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course on January 25, 2018. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
Tiger Woods has made the cut at a PGA event for the first time since 2015, but do not count on “The Tiger Effect” giving CBS much of a boost this weekend. Woods entered the weekend in a tie for 65th. Curiosity will likely give CBS a couple extra tenths, but Woods’ impact on the ratings is far stronger when he is remotely in contention.
A bigger factor on the ratings will be other sporting events. Saturday’s third round action has an unusually good lead-in, a top five college basketball game between Virginia and Duke. The college basketball game will push golf back to a 4 PM ET start (and a 7 PM finish), which should also help the numbers. As for Sunday, competition from the Pro Bowl will almost certainly hurt — unless Woods can somehow climb up the leaderboard. Last year’s weekend coverage scored ratings of 1.2 (Saturday) and 2.0 (Sunday). Predictions: 2.0 and 1.8.
NFL Pro Bowl (3 PM Sun ESPN/ABC)
Pro Bowl ratings have dropped for six straight years, with last year’s 4.2 the lowest since 2006. The declines have accelerated since the game returned to ESPN in 2015, a likely reason why this year’s edition will be simulcast on ABC. That is one of two scheduling changes for this year’s game, the other being a mid-afternoon start. The Pro Bowl can usually hold its own with the Sunday night competition, but CBS has the Grammy Awards this time around. Avoiding one of the most-watched shows of the year was a wise decision. Do not expect ratings to soar back to early decade levels, when the game topped a 7.0 rating for four straight years, but look for a slight rebound nonetheless. Prediction: 4.5.
NBA: Celtics-Warriors (8:30 PM Sat ABC)
With the Cavaliers having rediscovered their Ricky Davis-era form, Celtics-Warriors is a legitimate NBA Finals preview. Boston has already beaten Golden State this season, a November thriller that scored a strong-for-cable 1.8 rating on TNT. Expect this week’s matchup of the NBA’s top teams to soar past last year’s 2.0 for Clippers-Warriors. Prediction: 2.8.
CBB: #2 Virginia-#4 Duke (2 PM Sat CBS)
Top five matchups are not quite as important in college basketball as in college football, since there is really nothing on the line. Even so, expect a solid number for Saturday’s clash between Duke and UVA. The top three ratings this season have been a 2.1 (MSU-OSU), 1.9 (Northwestern-Indiana) and 1.8 (Duke-MSU). Expect this week’s game to rank just outside of that range. Prediction: 1.7.
NHL All-Star Game (3:30 PM Sun NBC)
The NHL All-Star Game airs on broadcast television for a second straight year, but do not expect the numbers to build on last year’s 1.3 rating. Direct competition from the Pro Bowl should take a big chunk out of the audience. Prediction: 0.8.
Australian Open Men’s Final (3:30 AM Sun ESPN)
The Australian Open singles finals were never going to match last year, when the four greatest players of their era met in a pair of throwback finals — Serena Williams against her sister Venus and Roger Federer against his ultimate rival Rafael Nadal. Only Federer returned to the final this year, facing an opponent in Marin Cilic who is probably the least interesting men’s champion of the past decade. Last year’s Federer-Nadal final had a 0.7. Prediction: 0.5.
UFC on FOX 27 (8 PM Sat FOX)
Last season was ice cold for the UFC on FOX, with the series delivering four of its five smallest audiences. On the one hand, the bar has been set low for this year’s cards. On the other, there’s no reason to expect a recovery. Last year’s January card had a 1.3 rating. Prediction: 1.2.
Jon Lewis has been covering the sports media industry on a daily basis since 2006 as the founder and main writer of Sports Media Watch. You can contact him here or on the social media websites X (Twitter) or Bluesky.
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