Predicting British Open ratings on NBC. With Tiger Woods making the cut, just how high will the numbers go? Also on tap, baseball on FOX and ESPN and NASCAR’s Cup Series.
Last week’s results at the bottom of the page. All times Eastern.
BRITISH OPEN (9 AM SAT & SUN NBC)
Tiger Woods will play the weekend at the British Open for the first time since 2014, likely ensuring a strong performance for NBC. British Open ratings have returned to form since the event moved back to broadcast television in 2016. Final round coverage scored a 3.2 last year and a 3.3 in 2016, the two highest ratings for the event since 2009 (3.8). If Woods is remotely in contention, this year’s numbers should be even higher.
As of early Saturday, Woods was tied for 29th place but a modest six shots off the lead. If he can somehow not just get into the mix, but have a legitimate chance to win, ratings may well surpass 2009.
So far this season, ratings have increased for 19 of Woods’ 20 rounds on broadcast television. After this weekend, expect that to change to 21 of 22. Predictions: 2.6 and 3.7.
MLB: MOSTLY CARDINALS-CUBS (7 PM SAT FOX)
It has been a resurgent season for MLB on FOX, though the numbers still pale in comparison to earlier in the decade. After going five years without cracking a 2.0 rating, the network reached that mark twice this season. Ratings increased in five of the seven windows that can be compared to last year.
No doubt some of the rebound can be attributed to the ‘World Cup halo’ that benefited most Fox Sports programming over the past month. Even with that rising tide gone, FOX should still pull a respectable number for its final primetime window of the regular season. Prediction: 1.6.
MLB: METS-YANKEES (8 PM SUN ESPN)
After a rough start to the season, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball ratings increased in three of five windows entering the All-Star break. Not coincidentally, the Yankees or Cubs played in those three windows. One of those games pit the Yankees against the Mets, netting a 1.4 rating. The Subway Series is back on the schedule this weekend and a similar number seems likely. On the same weekend last year, Cardinals-Cubs had a 1.3. Prediction: 1.4.
NASCAR CUP SERIES: NEW HAMPSHIRE (2 PM SUN NBCSN)
Surely even NBC did not expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to turn NASCAR’s flagging ratings around. Announcers simply do not have that kind of impact on the numbers. Not even John Madden could save ABC’s fading Monday Night Football ratings in the early 2000s.
It is of course still early, but the results of Earnhardt’s three-race stint in the booth are no different than on FOX earlier in the season. Unless aided by a schedule change, ratings just keep dropping. This week’s race at New Hampshire seems almost certain to drop; last year’s 2.0 rating is simply out of reach for a race on cable this season. Not one cable race has exceeded a 1.7 this year. Prediction: 1.5.
Ratings predictions return next month.
Last week’s results
— FIFA World Cup Final. Prediction: 6.8 (FOX), 18.7M viewers (combined); results: 6.8, 17.8M
— Wimbledon women’s final. Prediction: 1.7; result: 1.8
— Wimbledon men’s final. Prediction: 1.4; result: 1.1
— MLS: Atlanta-Seattle. Prediction: 1.3; result: 0.9
— MLB: Mostly-Yankees Indians. Prediction: 1.9; result: 1.5
