Ratings Predictions: PGA Championship & More

PGA Championship ratings have been forgettable of late, with final round coverage falling below 4.0 in four of the past six years. Last year’s 3.2 was the lowest final round rating since 2008 and second-lowest since 1981.

The numbers are no real surprise. The PGA lacks the tradition of the Masters, US Open and British Open, serving as an afterthought during one of the deadest periods on the sporting calendar. A move to May should provide a shot in the arm, but that is still nine months away.

Luckily for the PGA, this year’s tournament has the benefit of sports television’s surest thing, Tiger Woods. There are few guarantees in the sports media industry, but when Woods plays a tournament he missed the previous year, it is a virtual lock that ratings will increase double — even triple — digits.

The real question is not whether ratings will rise, but by how much. The floor is probably an increase in the high 20 percent range, which would equal about a 2.8 on Saturday and a 4.0 on Sunday. As for the ceiling, Woods’ second-place finish in 2009 had a 4.3 and 6.6 respectively. Those numbers are probably out of reach for any non-Masters tournament today, even with Woods.

2014 might be a more manageable goal. That year, the third and final rounds had ratings of 3.0 and 5.3, still on the high side for golf in 2018. Predictions: 3.1 and 4.8.

Hope you enjoyed your reprieve, because another six-month slog of overanalyzing NFL ratings is around the corner. NFL Network got off to a decent start to the preseason on Thursday night, with Browns-Giants posting an 11 percent ratings bump. Do not expect a repeat for Saturday’s Vikings-Broncos game; the same window last year featured the Cowboys (1.1). Prediction: 0.9.

NASCAR ratings have increased just three times this season, and all three times it was primarily due to a scheduling change. No such luck this week at Michigan, which airs on the same network and on the same weekend as last year. Will last week’s drama — Chase Elliott‘s win and Brian France‘s arrest — have any impact one way or the other? Signs point to no. Last year’s race had a 2.0. Prediction: 1.6.

The Premier League is back after a brief offseason. The jewel of the opening weekend is defending champion Manchester City against Arsenal in a matchup of traditional powers. With the game airing in the cushiest timeslot of the weekend – late Sunday morning – expect a strong number by EPL standards. Manchester United-West Ham had a 0.44 in the same window last year. Prediction: 0.48.