Predicting NFL Week 1 ratings and more, including Tiger Woods in the BMW Championship, Serena Williams in the US Open final, the SEC on CBS and the Brickyard 400.
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
NFL WEEK 1 GAMES (SUN FOX, NBC, CBS)
After two years of declines, is this the year NFL ratings will get back on track? Thursday’s results point to no. The NFL Kickoff Game was the lowest rated in a decade, falling 11 percent from last year. There are some caveats — a lengthy rain delay, a 6-3 first half, the presence of the low-wattage Falcons — but it is hard to imagine the numbers will end up as an aberration.
Having said that, Sunday’s Week 1 games have a decent chance of rebounding from last year, when hurricane coverage depressed the numbers.
In the weekend’s top window, FOX sends Cowboys-Panthers to 80 percent of the country late Sunday afternoon. Dallas remains the NFL’s biggest draw and Carolina’s Cam Newton one of the league’s biggest stars. Expect a solid increase over last year’s comparable window, which featured Seahawks-Packers (12.7), even if the numbers still pale in comparison to 4 or 5 years ago. Prediction: 13.8.
Sunday night, the Bears-Packers rivalry takes center stage on NBC. Ratings will surely drop from last year’s higher-profile Giants-Cowboys game, which ended up as the highest rated primetime game of the season (13.4). Even so, expect the numbers to hold up relatively well. The Packers are the Packers, and the Bears look a little less moribund after the Khalil Mack trade. Prediction: 12.2.
Finally, CBS gets the Patriots in Week 1 for the first time since 2014, which should help the network surpass last year’s middling 7.6 rating. Do not expect the numbers to get back to 2016 levels (9.3), but up is up. Prediction: 8.4.
PGA TOUR: BMW CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL RD. (3P SUN NBC)
After shooting a 62 and finishing the day with a share of the lead on Thursday, Tiger Woods fell back toward earth on Friday. Yet he remains in contention in a tie for 12th, which should help NBC score a strong increase for coverage of the BMW Championship. There is a limit to how high golf can go on an NFL Sunday, but anything above a 2.0 rating would nearly double last year’s mark. Woods’ third-place finish back in 2012 had a 2.5. Prediction: 2.2.
US OPEN W. FINAL: SERENA WILLIAMS-NAOMI OSAKA (4P SAT ESPN)
For the first time since it became sole broadcaster of the US Open, ESPN has Serena Williams in the women’s final. Williams has been the biggest draw of this year’s tournament, lifting average viewership to a three-year high through Thursday’s play. Her prior appearance in the final four years ago had a 2.9 rating on CBS, albeit with an NFL lead-in — towering above the three subsequent years on ESPN (1.0, 1.1 and 1.2).
Ratings do not have to reach 2014 levels to constitute a success for ESPN. Williams’ presence should lift Saturday’s ratings well above the low bar of the past three years, particularly if the match is as competitive as it looks to be on paper. Prediction: 2.0.
US OPEN M. FINAL: NOVAK DJOKOVIC-J.M. DEL POTRO (4P SUN ESPN)
Juan Martin del Potro is a cult favorite in tennis circles, but it remains to be seen just how much interest casual fans have in the 2009 US Open champion. Novak Djokovic is well known, but not particularly beloved, and not a big draw on his own. Luckily, ratings for the men’s final have been so low of late that even a poor number would constitute a multi-year high. Last year’s Rafael Nadal-Kevin Anderson snoozer had a 0.95. Prediction: 1.2.
CFB: #3 UGA-#24 SOUTH CAROLINA (3:30P SAT CBS)
CBS usually settles for low-wattage SEC games the first two weeks of the season, but the network has a top 25 matchup this weekend as Georgia faces South Carolina. After a near-miss in the national championship game last season, the Bulldogs figure to have a somewhat larger following this year. With South Carolina a trendy upset pick, ratings should soar above last year’s comparable 1.5 for TCU-Arkansas. Prediction: 3.0.
CFB: #2 CLEMSON-TEXAS A&M (7P SAT ESPN)
Clemson faces old ACC foe Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M Saturday night in a decent non-conference matchup. A similar Clemson-Auburn matchup had a 1.8 rating in the same window last year, but that game faced much tougher competition from Oklahoma-Ohio State and Georgia-Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.3.
NASCAR CUP SERIES: BRICKYARD 400 (3P SUN NBCSN)
The Brickyard 400 has for many years been NASCAR’s biggest draw of the summer and fall. Last year, the race tied its highest rating since 2013 with a 3.4. All the more reason why this year’s scheduling change is so bizarre. Instead of airing virtually unopposed on a slow summer Sunday, the race is thrust into competition with Week 1 of the NFL season. Add to that a move from NBC back to NBCSN (where it aired from 2014-16) and a significant decline in ratings seems likely. Prediction: 1.7.
WNBA FINALS: MYSTICS-STORM GAME 2 (3:30P SUN ABC)
Sunday’s Game 2 of the WNBA Finals is the league’s first playoff game this year on a network other than ESPN2, ESPNEWS or NBA TV. Given the competition from Week 1 of the NFL, Tiger Woods, the US Open final and the Brickyard 400, the ABC exposure is unlikely to amount to much. Last year’s lone finals game on ABC, Game 1, had a 0.39 rating. Prediction: 0.36.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
— CFB: Michigan-Notre Dame. Prediction: 4.4; result: 4.0
— CFB: Louisville-Alabama. Prediction: 3.8; result: 2.7
— CFB: Washington-Auburn. Prediction: 4.3; result: 3.2
— CFB: Oregon State-OSU. Prediction: 3.7; result: 2.2
— CFB: Miami-LSU. Prediction: 4.1; result: 3.8
— CFB: VT-FSU. Prediction: 3.2; result: 3.4
— US Open: Serena-Venus. Prediction: 2.2; result: 1.2 (full window)
— PGA Tour: TPC Boston Final Rd. Prediction: 2.3; result: 2.1
— NASCAR Southern 500. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.5
