Ratings Predictions: OSU-Penn State & More

Since ESPN and Fox Sports began splitting Big Ten rights last season, most of the big games have gone to FOX. That includes last year’s Penn State-Ohio State game, which scored a hefty 5.75 rating. This year’s top ten matchup between the teams is ESPN/ABC’s biggest Big Ten game since it last aired Michigan-Ohio State in November ’16. Tough competition on NBC will be a factor, but expect a big rating nonetheless. The current season-high is a 4.2 for Ohio State-TCU two weeks ago. Prediction: 4.7.

NBC has rarely had as attractive a Notre Dame game as Saturday’s top ten matchup against Stanford. Unfortunately, the primetime start puts it in direct competition with Ohio State-Penn State on ABC. As big a draw as Notre Dame is, Ohio State is arguably bigger. There can be no question that Penn State has a bigger national following than Stanford. Expect Saturday’s game to get swamped by the competition. Prediction: 2.3.

On a weak Sunday of NFL games, the singleheader window has a decent shot of topping the charts. FOX is sending most of the country either the Cowboys or the suddenly-intriguing Browns. Despite CBS competition that includes the 1-2 Patriots against the 3-0 Dolphins, expect a strong rating. With that said, do not expect an increase. In Week 4 last year, FOX had a singleheader season-high 11.5 for coverage featuring the Cowboys and Patriots. Prediction: 10.7.

One wonders what the NFL was thinking when it set aside a Giants game for the national window this week. Surely New York made it clear last season that it was not worthy of national television. Alas, when you play in New York you’re always deemed worthy of national television (ask the Knicks). Lucky for CBS, last year’s national window set a historically low bar with a 9.1 rating. Prediction: 10.2.

Ravens-Steelers ratings are much like the matchup itself – not the prettiest, but reliably consistent. You know what you are going to get on the field Sunday night, and in the Nielsens early next week. Not counting a 2014 matchup that followed months of off-field scandal, ratings for the teams’ primetime matchups have ranged between 10.1 and 11.8 over the past five years. Expect something in that range this week. Prediction: 10.5.

The Ryder Cup is a feast-or-famine event. When it takes place in the U.S., it is one of the stronger draws on the golf calendar. When it takes place in Europe, not so much. The last overseas Ryder Cup in 2014 earned a record-low Sunday rating of 1.6. This year’s rating should be higher with Tiger Woods in the field and coming off of his first victory since 2013. Even so, do not expect anything too spectacular. Prediction: 1.9.

The NBA is an odd duck. We all know how the season will end and that the conclusion will not be too exciting. Yet the league is in excellent shape. With LeBron James a Laker, the NBA is entering what could be its highest rated season in years. LeBron’s drawing power made the Cavaliers a marquee draw for 11 years and the Heat the league’s biggest draw since the Jordan-era Bulls. Combine his personal drawing power with that of the Lakers – the NBA’s answer to the Yankees – and the good times figure to roll. As far as this week’s preseason matchup, expect a big increase over ESPN’s Sunday night preseason game last year, Kings-Lakers (0.27). Prediction: 0.44.

Much has been made of Charlotte’s “Roval” this week, but NASCAR has made numerous changes over the years that have not made a dent in the ratings. Will this be an exception? Last year’s race had a 1.8 rating, the lowest on record for a Cup Series race on broadcast television. Given the hype, the low bar, and a lead-in from the Ryder Cup, NASCAR could actually eke out an increase this week. Prediction: 1.8.