Predicting Yankees-Red Sox ALDS ratings and more, including an NFC Championship Game rematch, the Red River Rivalry, and LSU-Florida.
All times Eastern. Last week’s results at the bottom of the page.
ALDS: YANKEES-RED SOX GAMES 1 & 2 (7:30P FRI & 8:15P SAT TBS)
For the first time in 14 years, the Yankees and Red Sox meet in postseason play. It is hard to overstate just how big a draw the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry has been in the month of October. Their last meeting — in the 2004 American League Championship Series — averaged an 11.7 rating. Only one World Series has averaged a higher rating in the years since, the Cubs’ curse-breaking win in 2016 (13.1). Game 7 of that ALCS had a whopping 19.4, better than every baseball game since, except for Game 7 of the aforementioned ’16 World Series.
The teams’ previous meetings in the 1999 and 2003 ALCS averaged ratings of 9.2 and 10.7 respectively.
There is no expectation that this year’s series will score those gangbusters numbers. Times have changed since the early 2000s and the hefty ratings Yankees-Red Sox used to draw are now out-of-reach. More importantly, this year’s matchup is in the Division Series and will air exclusively on cable.
Having said that, it is a safe bet that Yankees-Red Sox will be the highest rated Division Series in several years. The rivalry is still baseball’s biggest draw and the teams finished with two of the three best records during the regular season. Look for Games 1 and 2 to easily surpass last year’s comparable windows. Prediction: 3.9 and 3.7.
NFL: MOSTLY VIKINGS-EAGLES (4:25P SUN FOX)
Most of the country gets a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game in this week’s NFL national window, which may not be as appealing as it sounds. The Eagles smoked the Vikings in what was the NFL’s lowest rated conference title game since 2006. Minnesota’s shaky 1-2-1 start this season, including an inexplicable blowout loss to the Bills, also takes away from the matchup. The biggest headwind facing FOX is that last year’s comparable window pit the Packers against the Cowboys (13.6). Prediction: 12.6.
NFL: COWBOYS-TEXANS (8:20P SUN NBC)
One wonders when the NFL will wise up and stop giving the Texans primetime games. Houston drags their 1-3 record onto Sunday Night Football this weekend. Luckily for NBC, the Cowboys will be there too. Even luckier — last year’s comparable Colts-Texans game set a low bar with just a 9.5. Prediction: 10.4.
CFB: #19 TEXAS-#7 OKLAHOMA (NOON SAT FOX)
The Red River Rivalry returns to broadcast television this weekend for the first time since 2015. With both teams in the top 25 and ESPN’s College Gameday providing the “Game of the Week” imprimatur, ratings should improve over last year’s 2.1 on ESPN. Prediction: 2.8.
CFB: #5 LSU-#22 FLORIDA (3:30P SAT CBS)
Last year was the lowest rated season of the SEC on CBS in more than a decade, but the numbers are bouncing back so far this season. Ratings have increased for three of four windows that can be compared to last year. Credit an improved schedule that has included four top 25 matchups in five weeks, including this week’s meeting between LSU and Florida. Expect a solid increase in ratings over last year’s matchup between the same two teams, when LSU was #18 and Florida unranked (2.5). Prediction: 3.8.
CFB: #6 NOTRE DAME-#24 VIRGINIA TECH (8P SAT ABC)
Notre Dame in contention is always a good thing for the networks, but expectations should not be too high for Saturday’s matchup against Virginia Tech. After their loss to Old Dominion, the Hokies do not exactly appear to be a formidable opponent. Plus the competing Yankees-Red Sox playoff game figures to draw some potential viewers away. Last year’s comparable Michigan-Michigan State game had a 3.7. Prediction: 2.9.
NASCAR CUP SERIES PLAYOFFS: DOVER (2P SUN NBCSN)
NASCAR had a rare bit of good news last week as the much-hyped “Roval” delivered an increase in ratings – the first for any Cup Series race this season without aid of a scheduling change. Can the good times extend into a second straight week? Seems doubtful, but last year’s 1.3 rating was not exactly a high bar. Prediction: 1.2.
LAST WEEK’S RESULTS
— CFB: Ohio State-Penn State. Prediction: 4.7; result: 5.3
— CFB: Stanford-Notre Dame. Prediction: 2.3; result: 2.1
— NFL: Mostly Lions-Cowboys or Browns-Raiders. Prediction: 10.7; result: 10.3
— NFL: Mostly Saints-Giants. Prediction: 10.2; result: 12.1
— NFL: Ravens-Steelers. Prediction: 10.5; result: 10.4
— Ryder Cup: Final Day. Prediction: 1.9; result: 1.8
— NBA Preseason: Nuggets-Lakers. Prediction: 0.44; result: 0.7
— NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: Charlotte. Prediction: 1.8; result: 1.95
