Ratings predictions for a quiet sports TV weekend, led by Eagles-Cowboys and Rams-Bears. Also on tap: the Army-Navy game, Heisman Trophy Presentation and MLS Cup.
All times Eastern. Last year’s results at the bottom of the page.
NFL: Mostly Eagles-Cowboys (4:25p Sun FOX)
With the Eagles showing signs of life and Dallas riding a four-game winning streak, Sunday’s NFL national window looks a lot better than it did a few weeks ago. Yet it will still have a hard time matching last year, when coverage featuring Eagles-Rams pulled a 13.7 rating. Only one NFL window all season has had as high a rating — Packers-Patriots in Week 9 — and no Eagles-Cowboys matchup has cracked even a 12.0 since 2015.
To put it another way, if FOX is to score an increase on Sunday, it will need a season-high rating that is the highest for the Cowboys-Eagles rivalry in at least three years. The network has a few things in its favor: the stakes, a third home market in Pittsburgh (which will get Steelers-Raiders), and the fact that the last two national windows have each rated a 13.5. Prediction: 14.0.
NFL: Rams-Bears (8:20p Sun NBC)
NBC has had no luck with flexible schedule games this season. Each of the first three has declined, the network’s only games since Week 1 to fall below last year. The fourth time should be the charm. Not only is Rams-Bears a matchup of division leaders, it also pits the nation’s #2 and #3 markets. Market size can be overrated, particularly in a league like the NFL, but having legitimate contenders in top-three markets is an excellent situation to be in. Ratings should comfortably clear last year’s low bar of 10.1 for Ravens-Steelers. Prediction: 12.0.
CFB: Army-Navy (3:00p Sat CBS)
In an era of declining — or at least fluctuating — ratings, the Army-Navy game stands apart. Ratings have increased in seven straight years and eight of the past nine, topping out at last year’s 5.2. No small feat for a game that just ten years ago bottomed out at a record-low 2.0. Why the growth? Most of the credit belongs to a 2009 scheduling change that moved the rivalry game to one week after championship weekend. Then again, even that does not explain why the game continues to add viewers each year. Eventually, the game will max out its potential audience, but for now the safe bet is another increase. Prediction: 5.5.
Heisman Trophy Presentation (8:00p Sat ESPN)
Ratings for the Heisman Trophy Presentation have declined in five straight years, falling from a 3.1 in 2012 to last year’s 1.3, the lowest of the century. The downward trend should finally end this year, thanks to a field that includes Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray, both of whom will be in the College Football Playoff. While the numbers will not be returning to 2012 levels any time soon, expect ESPN to potentially hit a multi-year high. Prediction: 1.7.
MLS Cup: Portland-Atlanta (8:00p Sat FOX)
The MLS Cup airs on primetime broadcast television for just the second time. The first time around, FOX scored a 0.8 rating for a matchup of Seattle and Toronto. This year’s matchup should fare better if for no other reason than both teams are based in the United States (Canadian markets do not count toward U.S. TV ratings). The MLS Cup has not cracked a 1.0 rating (on a single network) since 2001. Prediction: 0.9.
Last week’s results
— CFB: Alabama-Georgia: Prediction: 8.5; result: 10.1
— CFB: Oklahoma-Texas. Prediction: 4.4; result: 6.2
— CFB: Ohio State-Northwestern. Prediction: 5.9; result: 5.0
— CFB: Clemson-Pittsburgh: Prediction: 2.5; result: 2.5
— NFL: Mostly Vikings-Patriots. Prediction: 12.7; result: 13.5
— NFL: Chargers-Steelers. Prediction: 11.9; result: 10.5
— Women’s CBB: UConn-Notre Dame. Prediction: 0.48; result: 0.43
— Golf: World Challenge final round. Prediction: 1.4; result: 0.6
