Ratings predictions: CFB Week 1 & more

The college football season gets fully underway with a Labor Day weekend light on marquee games. Had it not been moved up to “week zero” last weekend, Miami-Florida would probably have been the highest-profile matchup.

CFB: #9 Notre Dame-Louisville (8p Mon ESPN). While Notre Dame-Louisville is not a compelling matchup on paper (Notre Dame is favored by 21), ESPN has two factors working in its favor: the presence of a top-ten ranked Notre Dame team and a Labor Day window that features no other competition. This year marks the first time that Notre Dame has played in the Labor Day slot, and one imagines that the team should be at least as strong a draw on the holiday as Florida State has been. Last year’s Virginia Tech-FSU game had a 3.4 rating. Prediction: 3.7.

CFB: Houston-#4 Oklahoma (7:30p Sun ABC). For the fourth straight year, ABC airs a non-conference matchup on the Sunday before Labor Day. Jalen Hurts‘ Oklahoma debut carries some intrigue, but with Oklahoma favored by 23 against a low-wattage Cougars team, it is hard to imagine ratings coming particularly close to last year’s 3.8 for Miami-LSU. Prediction: 2.9.

CFB: #11 Oregon-#16 Auburn (7:30p Sat ABC). For the first time in five years, ABC’s Saturday Night Football debut does not feature Alabama. Instead, the network gets a 2011 title game rematch and the only matchup of ranked teams this weekend. If the game is as competitive as expected, ratings should top last year’s 2.7 for an Alabama-Louisville rout. Prediction: 3.1.

CFB: Duke-#2 Alabama (3:30p Sat ABC). Unless Duke can surprise everyone and make it a game against Alabama, expect ABC to see a decent drop in ratings for the middle game of its season-opening tripleheader. Last year’s comparable top ten matchup between Washington and Auburn had a 3.2. Prediction: 2.5.

CFB: FAU-#5 Ohio State (Noon Sat FOX). FOX is all-in on the Noon ET window this season, even branding its coverage as “Big Noon Saturday.” While the moniker seems ill-suited to a game involving FAU, expect a solid increase in ratings nonetheless. Last year’s comparable window, which pit the same FAU squad against Oklahoma, had a mere 0.9. Given Ohio State is a stronger draw than the Sooners, an increase seems to go without saying. Prediction: 1.5.

The Mets have faded a bit after surging back into playoff contention, but they are still in the hunt for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. So too are the Phillies. Can the playoff implications keep ratings respectable on the first football Sunday of the season? Maybe not, but it will not take much to top last year’s 0.6 for Angels-Astros. Prediction: 0.7.

The BIG3 TV deal with CBS has been a trade-off for the three-year-old league. The deal has included a substantial increase in broadcast network exposure, with CBS airing games in most weeks of the season. Yet those telecasts have largely aired in the early afternoon, generating weaker ratings than last year’s Friday night windows on FOX. The time shift should sink this weekend’s championship game; last year’s primetime telecast had a 0.7 on FOX. Prediction: 0.45.

How to characterize NASCAR’s 2019? More races have increased this season than in the previous two combined, an unqualified success for a series that had been sinking like a rock. At the same time, a slightly greater number of races have declined, and all of the races remain at or near historic lows. Don’t call it a comeback — maybe a reprieve. Expect Darlington to continue the mixed trend, increasing over last year’s 1.5, if not by much. Prediction: 1.7.

— CFB: Miami-UF. Prediction: 2.8; result: 3.4
— NFL preseason: Steelers-Titans. Prediction: 3.6; result: 3.8
— MLB: Yankees-Dodgers. Prediction: 1.6; result: 1.5
— LLWS World Championship. Prediction: 1.9; result: 1.9
— PGA Tour: final round of the Tour Championship. Prediction: 2.0; result: 2.5