Ratings predictions: NFL, Championship Saturday, and more

The last meeting between the Chiefs and Patriots was an all-time classic AFC Championship that attracted the NFL’s largest non-Super Bowl audience in five years. Sunday’s rematch is not the clash of titans that seemed likely when the schedule came out in April, with Kansas City recovering from a midseason slide and New England looking vulnerable of late. Even so, the stakes are high.

Last year’s comparable window featured Cowboys-Eagles and averaged a 14.2 — tied as the fourth-highest NFL rating of the past three seasons. That is a high bar by late 2010s standards, but NFL ratings have been impressing of late. Prediction: 14.6.

For the second-straight week, FOX gets a primetime-quality matchup in its singleheader window. Last week, coverage featuring 49ers-Ravens averaged a 12.0 rating, the highest for the window since 2015. This week’s featured game pits the 49ers against the Saints in a matchup of 10-2 Super Bowl contenders. Given New Orleans’ drawing power, look for ratings to top last week and set a new four-year high. Prediction: 12.4.

NBC would have no doubt loved for the NFL to flex 49ers-Saints to Sunday night, but Seahawks-Rams is a decent enough consolation prize. The Rams are theoretically still in the playoff race, while Seattle has been surging of late. Expect a modest increase over last year’s 11.2 for Rams-Bears. Prediction: 11.6.

Since 2001, the eight highest rated SEC Championship games have involved Alabama or Auburn, including last year’s Alabama-Georgia national championship rematch (10.1). Expect that to change this year. With a playoff berth on the line, Georgia-LSU should be one of the stronger draws in SEC title game history, even if not quite as strong as last year. The game averaged an 8.0 the last time it did not include Alabama (Georgia-Auburn in 2017) and a 7.3 the last time it did not include Alabama or Auburn (Georgia-LSU in 2011). Prediction: 8.8.

With Utah’s loss on Friday, the Big 12 Championship looks to be a win-and-you’re-in affair. Baylor had Oklahoma on the ropes earlier this year with that most insurmountable of leads: 28-3. The Sooners’ comeback gives Saturday’s rematch some added juice. Will any of that will be enough to match last year’s Red River rivalry rematch (6.2)? Prediction: 5.6.

History will not soon forget Ohio State taking Wisconsin to the woodshed to the tune of 59-0 five years ago, but the most recent Big Ten Championship between the Buckeyes and Badgers was a closer six-point affair. That 2017 game averaged a 7.3 rating, the second highest in the short history of the Big Ten title game. A similarly close result this time should generate a similarly strong rating, but the oddsmakers have Ohio State as a comfortable two-touchdown favorite. Anything closer than 59-0 should at the very least top last year (5.0). Prediction: 6.0.

Ratings have declined for every Clemson appearance in the ACC Championship, including each of their appearances during their run of title contention. Last year’s 2.5 was the lowest for the game since it last aired on cable in 2012. Perhaps that is where the numbers will bottom out. Perhaps not. Clemson is favored by four touchdowns. Prediction: 2.5.

ESPN is going with UFC Saturday night rather than a conference championship game, a decision that is less curious than it looks. In the same window last year, the network drew a 0.6 for the Mountain West Championship. It is certainly plausible that UFC could match or surpass that low bar. Just last month, ESPN2 scored a 0.5 for primetime UFC prelims on a college football Saturday. Prediction: 0.6.

Tiger Woods is in contention at golf’s World Challenge, which should mean a strong increase in ratings over last year, when he finished 17th in the 18-player field. Last year’s 0.6 final round rating was the lowest in years. How high will ratings go? The early Saturday afternoon finish is not ideal, but features far less competition than the traditional Sunday afternoon window. The tournament has not exceeded a 1.4 rating since Woods’ 2011 win (2.4). Prediction: 1.6.