Ratings predictions: NBA and NHL returns (and more)

Books will be written about the 2019-20 NBA season, a campaign that was star-crossed even before things went truly bad. There was an international incident with China, a run of injuries to star players, and a steady decline in ratings — and that was just in 2019.

2020 has been unimaginably worse. The death of Kobe Bryant, his daughter and seven others in one of the worst tragedies in modern sports history. The death of David Stern. And, of course, a pandemic.

The NBA was the first U.S. league to shut down back in March and it was touch-and-go for awhile as to whether it would even try to come back. The league’s ‘bubble’ at Walt Disney World in Orlando generated skepticism at first, but a multi-week stretch without positive tests has at least temporarily quieted the doubters entering Thursday’s scheduled resumption of play.

As for the games, the trend so far with sports returning from hiatus has been a bigger-than-usual initial tune-in, followed by a quick reversion to the mean. MLB, for example, returned last Thursday with a record opening night audience, only for viewership to recede back to usual levels over the weekend. Expect similar results for the NBA.

Jazz-Pelicans (6:30p Thu TNT). Zion Williamson is a game time decision for Thursday’s first scheduled NBA game since March 11. His absence from TNT’s Opening Night game last October took a toll on the ratings, but do not expect a similar outcome if he is absent this time around. Under the circumstances, just about any match up would do well. Prediction: 1.9.

Lakers-Clippers (9:00p Thu TNT). Three days before the NBA went dark in March, Lakers-Clippers delivered the fifth-largest audience of the NBA season. The L.A. rivalry has generated three of the top seven so far. Expect Thursday’s game — postponed in January due to the Bryant tragedy and again in April due to the league’s hiatus — to make it four of the top eight. Prediction: 2.4.

Bucks-Rockets (8:30p Sun ABC). If the other sports are any indication, any NBA ratings bump will likely have subsided by the end of the week. Nonetheless, expect a good number for Bucks-Rockets on ABC, which would be the network’s first-ever primetime game on a Sunday, outside of the NBA Finals. Prediction: 2.2.

While the NBA’s return plan includes two weeks of regular season ramp-up, the NHL’s plan goes straight into an expanded postseason. On the opening day of play Saturday, NBC is scheduled to air a pair of qualification round openers involving two of the league’s most prominent teams, Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Again, the trend for sports returning from hiatus has been a strong opener, though there is some reason to wonder if the NHL might be an exception. As the last league back, the NHL returns to a sports calendar that — if all goes well — rivals normal times. Saturday’s games are scheduled to compete with an NBA quadrupleheader on ESPN, a Red Sox-Yankees game on FOX, plus a hodgepodge of golf, auto racing and other assorted events. Hockey could get lost in the shuffle.

On the other hand, the bar is low. On the first Saturday of last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, NBC averaged a 0.75 for Hurricanes-Capitals Game 2 and a 1.0 for Maple Leafs-Bruins Game 2. No amount of sporting competition should keep Saturday’s games from blowing past those numbers. Predictions: 1.5 and 1.4.

FOX aired a pair of Thursday night MLB windows last year with mixed results. One game had a season-low 1.2 rating, the other a healthier 1.7. Those games faced Thursday Night Football on NFL Network. While the NBA should provide formidable competition, look for MLB to hold its own. Prediction: 1.5.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry is set to return this weekend. While the animosity between these teams has largely cooled, it is still baseball’s best bet in the TV ratings. Their FOX meetings last season averaged ratings of 1.9 (London) and 1.6. Prediction: 1.6.

The WNBA has not had this much quality national television exposure since the days of NBC. Four games on the ESPN “Mothership” and ABC last weekend, two more on ESPN Thursday night, and then another ESPN window on Sunday. Plus, several more games on those networks are scheduled for the weeks ahead. The league would no doubt have preferred a normal season in home arenas and fans in attendance, but as far as consolation prizes go, the WNBA certainly cannot complain.

ESPN gets its second look at Sabrina Ionescu on Sunday, this time facing arguably the league’s greatest player of all time, Diana Taurasi. Ionescu’s debut last weekend scored a 0.28 rating. Prediction: 0.26.

With all of the “Big Four” leagues that went on hiatus in March set to return to play by this weekend, it is worth looking back at how NASCAR fared during the lengthy stretch in which it was one of the only major series in operation. The return at Darlington was strong with a 3.7 rating, but no other race came close. Talladega was unusually strong for a Monday makeup, but that was because of unusual national attention. The Brickyard scored a big increase, but only because last year’s race aired in September opposite the NFL. Beyond that, only the Coca-Cola 600 (2.4) and Atlanta (2.5) cracked even a 2.0 rating, and both of those numbers marked historic lows.

On the other side, midweek racing has been a ratings bust. Last Thursday’s outing at Kansas had a 0.9, tied as the lowest for a Cup Series race in at least 20 years (matching a midweek race at Martinsville last month). Most Sunday races have been unremarkable, falling in the mid-to-high 1.0 range as would be expected in any other year.

Any thought that NASCAR could break through without the other sports hogging the limelight has been put to rest. Now, facing a potential glut of sporting events that is unusual for the month of August, NASCAR’s best hope is that the numbers hold at current levels. Last year’s New Hampshire race had a 1.7. Prediction: 1.5.