Ratings predictions: NBA Finals, NFL and more

2020 has been a year for resetting expectations. Sports schedules once chiseled in stone are now scrawled hastily in pencil. Staples of spring and early summer long tied to their place on the calendar — the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, Memorial Day weekend at the Brickyard, Father’s Day weekend at the U.S. Open — have plunged in strange times of year that have long been claimed by other sports.

It is increasingly clear that a not-insignificant amount of sports viewing is a force of habit. Break the habit and all bets are off. For the NBA, that means numbers once unthinkable are now on the table. Wednesday’s Game 1 of the NBA Finals had just a 4.1 rating, more than a full point lower than the previous record-low of 5.2 for Nets-Spurs in 2003. That is despite the presence of LeBron James and the Lakers, the league’s most prominent player and team.

That 4.1 may well end up as the series’ high-water mark, given Game 2 aired on a Friday night (among the least-watched nights of the week) and Game 3 will face the gauntlet of an NFL Sunday. It is worth noting that since the wave of cancellations and postponements in March, Game 1 is one of only two non-NFL sportscasts to crack even a 4.0 rating (the Kentucky Derby had a record-low 4.8).

How low can the NBA Finals realistically go? Eagles-49ers is not particularly formidable by NFL standards, but it is tougher competition than any NBA Finals game has faced since the O.J. Simpson chase. With the series perceived as a mismatch, even potential viewers uninterested in the NFL have little reason to tune in. Could Game 3 go below a 3.0 rating? Below a 2.0?

About 16 months ago, the NBA Finals opened with ratings in the 7.0 range and this writer was not impressed. Now a 7.0 looks unrealistically high for an NBA Finals that may well edge down into the frozen tundra of Stanley Cup territory.

Ultimately, a record-low NBA Finals rating is far better than the alternative, which was no NBA Finals at all. Whatever cheap shots the league might suffer in the short term pale in comparison to the long-lasting financial catastrophe that would have ensued had the season not resumed in July. The NBA has recovered from record-lows time and again; the numbers may well bounce back toward normal if the league can return to its usual time of year when conditions finally allow.

Still, even by the standards of bubble, out-of-season basketball, these numbers are attention-grabbing. In a year of resetting expectations, it may be time to rethink what the bottom might be for one of sports’ marquee events. Prediction: 2.5.

The record-low numbers for the NBA Finals still represent stronger competition than the NFL is used to this time of year, and with Sunday Night Football already somewhat soft to start the season, it is reasonable to expect a mediocre outing for Eagles-49ers. Expect a steep decline from last year’s strong-performing Cowboys-Saints game (13.7). Prediction: 8.8.

The sudden postponement of Sunday’s marquee Patriots-Chiefs game should have a big impact on the ratings (to say nothing of the league generally). Even with Tom Brady now in Tampa, the game was to be a marquee quarterback matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Cam Newton. As a result of the latter’s positive COVID-19 test, it will not be played until Monday or Tuesday at the earliest.

Instead, CBS has either Bills-Raiders or Bears-Colts. While the former is a decent enough matchup — Buffalo is 3-0 and the Raiders 2-1 — it is not the kind of game that can carry the NFL’s 4:25 PM ET window, the highest rated programming in all of television. In the same window last year, coverage featuring Vikings-Bears averaged an 11.3. Prediction: 9.9.

A top ten SEC matchup in October is usually attractive, though it is worth wondering just how much the conference’s late start has dampened the usual enthusiasm. None of last week’s SEC games was a particularly big draw, and it is hard to get into a ‘top ten’ matchup in a year when the rankings are as meaningless as ever. Last year’s Georgia-Auburn game had a 4.0 on CBS. Prediction: 2.0.

NASCAR’s first trip to Talladega this season delivered one of the sports’ better ratings in recent years (given the Monday afternoon timeslot), but that had nothing to do with the racing. Without any major national news drawing attention to the race Sunday, expect ratings to be what they usually are for NASCAR – down. The last time the Talladega playoff race was run as scheduled (2018) it had a 2.2. Prediction: 1.9.