Ratings predictions: Conference championships and more

College football has made it to championship Saturday, no small feat under the circumstances. This has not been a particularly strong season. Entering conference championship weekend, only two games in 15 weeks have averaged at least a 4.0 rating — compared to ten in 14 weeks last year. One of those games was the previous meeting between Notre Dame and Clemson, the top-rated game of the season at a 5.4.

Normally, a top-five rematch of the ‘game of the year’ would seem a shoo-in for a big rating — especially if it pit Notre Dame against the nation’s highest-profile player (Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence). Not the case this year. While Saturday’s game will not have to compete with another “Power 5” championship game, it will face the NFL head-to-head. That alone should depress the numbers.

In addition, the stakes are not as high as one would expect for a #2 vs. #3 matchup, given the high likelihood that both teams will be invited to the College Football Playoff.

Ratings will easily top last year’s ACC Championship, a snoozer between Clemson and Virginia (2.4). The numbers will probably be the best for the title game since 2014 (Florida State-Georgia Tech: 6.2). Just do not be surprised if the sequel falls short of the original. Prediction: 4.8.

The SEC Championship Game is always a big draw, but this year’s game faces the stiff headwind of NFL competition. As with the ACC title game, expect the NFL to take a chunk out of the numbers. Last year’s game LSU-Georgia title game drew a 7.9 rating; the last time Alabama and Florida met in the game, it had a 6.6.

Look for this year’s game to be the lowest rated SEC Championship since 2006 and nonetheless draw one of the season’s highest ratings. Prediction: 5.2.

The NFL’s late season Saturday games usually coincide with the start of college football’s bowl season, when the only games are low-wattage matchups of group of five teams. The competition will be far tougher this year, and so it stands to reason that the ratings will be lower than usual. Last year’s three Saturday games (all in Week 16) generated ratings of 3.3, 4.8 and 5.5. In 2018, four Saturday games averaged ratings of 2.9 and 4.2 (Week 15) and 3.6 and 4.6 (Week 16). How well can this year’s games reasonably hold up given the competition? The Bills and Packers are strong teams and the NFL is the NFL. It is hard to see the numbers falling too far. Prediction: 2.5 and 2.8.

The marquee quarterback matchup of Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees is finally set to take place Sunday, two years after they nearly met in the Super Bowl. NFL ratings have not exactly been impressive this season, but in a year with NBA Finals games in the 3.0s and World Series games in the 4.0s, it is hard to take issue with a league regularly landing 10.0s, 11.0s and 12.0s.

The highest NFL rating all season is a 13.2 for the Saints’ Week 1 matchup with Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Given the drawing power of Mahomes and Brees — and their teams’ combined 22-4 record — a new season-high seems likely. So too does a rare year-over-year increase; last year’s comparable Week 15 window (mostly Rams-Cowboys) averaged a 13.1. Prediction: 13.5.

The NFL flexed out a Cowboys game so NBC could air Browns-Giants on Sunday, a decision that looked far better after New York’s Week 13 upset of Seattle than after their Week 14 drubbing at the hands of Arizona. The Giants are in contention for the lead in the wretched NFC East, but that does not necessarily mean they are ready for primetime. The Browns, meanwhile, are one of the league’s best stories and are coming off of a thrilling loss to Baltimore Monday night. Now for a question rarely asked in sports TV — can Cleveland’s national appeal overcome the presence of New York? In Week 15 last year, NBC averaged a 10.5 for Bills-Steelers. Prediction: 7.9.

Facing the ACC Championship Game and the NFL, do not expect much of a rating for Saturday’s CBS Sports Classic clash between unranked UCLA and #20 Ohio State. Last year’s late game — Ohio State-Kentucky — had a 1.4. Prediction: 0.7.

The presence of Tiger Woods — and his 11-year-old son Charlie — should give golf’s father-son PNC Championship a boost. Do not expect a huge rating on a football-dominated weekend, but the numbers should cruise past last year (0.46 on Saturday and 0.38 on Sunday). Prediction: 0.6.