Ratings predictions: Final fours and more

Of all the sports affected by the wave of cancellations and postponements last year, perhaps none took a bigger hit than basketball. There was no NCAA Tournament last year and the NBA Finals — pushed four months out of season — plumbed the ratings depths. Not a single basketball game has cracked the 10 million viewer mark since Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals, when the Warriors still played in Oakland and Kawhi Leonard still played for Toronto. The most-watched basketball game over the 20 months came last weekend — Michigan-Florida State in the Sweet Sixteen, with just over nine million viewers.

Ratings have been a mixed bag for the men’s tournament this year. While no individual game has reached the heights of a typical year — at the same point of the 2019 tournament, five games had topped the 10 million mark, including 16.2 million for Michigan State-Duke — the numbers have been healthy by the ever-falling standards of linear TV. That viewership is down around 12% entering the Final Four, as opposed to 20, 30 or 40 percent, is what now qualifies as a success story.

So far, this year’s altered scheduling format has been the biggest factor in the ratings. The weekend Sweet Sixteen was the most-watched in 28 years, while the weeknight Elite Eight was the least-watched on record. With the Final Four (mostly) keeping its usual schedule, the matchups figure to be the determining factor on Saturday — and that may not be a good thing.

#2 Houston-#1 Baylor (5:14p): The first all-Texas matchup in the Final Four pits two teams that are not often at the top of the marquee. Houston has not been to the Final Four since the 1980s. Baylor has not been there since 1950. These are not programs with the kind of strong national followings or individual stars that move the needle. While a good game is ultimately what matters most in the ratings, it is the case that a matchup like this — in a year when a 12 percent decline counts as success – seems unlikely to match the 7.6 rating for Virginia-Auburn in ’19.

The lowest Final Four rating on record is a 6.1 for Villanova-Oklahoma on Turner in 2016. [Related: men’s Final Four ratings history.] It would take a decline of at least 20 percent to set a new low. One possible factor that could affect the ratings is an earlier 5 PM ET start time. That will certainly not help. Prediction: 5.7.

#11 UCLA-#1 Gonzaga (8:34p): Gonzaga’s undefeated run has not captivated the country the way Kentucky’s did six years ago. Granted, it would be difficult for a mid-major — even the greatest mid-major of them all — to match the drawing power of a stacked Kentucky team. Still, it is hard to imagine Gonzaga attracting a particularly strong audience, even against that rare blueblood Cinderella, 11 seed UCLA. If the game is as lopsided as the oddmakers think (Gonzaga is favored by 14 points), ratings should sink pretty far below the 9.1 for Michigan State-Texas Tech in 2019. On the bright side, anything above a 6.8 would be the highest non-football sports rating since the wave of cancellations and postponements last year. Prediction: 6.9.

After winning four straight titles, UConn has now fallen short of the National Championship for a fourth-straight NCAA Tournament. UConn’s absence is not the end of the world, but an all-Pac-12 final may be a tough sell given the conference’s general lack of visibility. The last national championship in 2019 involved marquee programs in the women’s game, Baylor and Notre Dame. Its 2.1 rating ranks as the second-best for the title game since 2014. While there have been some positive numbers for the women’s tournament thus far, it seems unlikely that Sunday’s game will keep pace. The lowest rated national championship in recent years was a 1.8 for UConn-Louisville in 2009. [Related: Women’s Final Four ratings history.] Prediction: 1.6.

Sans LeBron, AD, and the other AD, the Lakers would seem to have little chance against the Clippers on Sunday. ABC certainly has little chance in the ratings of matching last year’s Sunday Showcase matchup between the teams, which had a 2.3 rating on the weekend before sports went dark. The real question is whether the Lakers’ brand name, or their less-than-compelling rivalry with the Clippers, will be enough to keep the ratings semi-decent. ABC’s highest non-Christmas rating this season was just a 1.6 for Lakers-Celtics in January. Its two previous Sunday games drew ratings of 1.4 (Celtics-Pelicans on February 21) and 1.0 (Clippers-Bucks on February 28). Prediction: 1.5.

Sunday Night Baseball is scheduled to return this weekend with the White Sox and Angels in the first primetime, nationally televised game of the season. Do not expect much out of this matchup. The first Sunday night game in 2019 — Braves-Phillies — pulled a 1.1. In this era of sports TV, that seems unrealistically high. Prediction: 0.8.