Ratings predictions: “The Game” and more

The Big Ten’s fumbling, bumbling return-to-play plan last year put Ohio State-Michigan in October and then December, before the game was called off altogether. After that unplanned one-year hiatus, the “The Game” is back — on its regular post-Thanksgiving weekend and with both teams ranked in the top five. Absence does not always make the heart grow fonder, but the one-year hiatus, combined with the playoff implications and even the snow, should help Saturday’s game post college football’s largest regular season audience in at least two years.

The rivals’ previous meeting in 2019 averaged 12.42 million viewers, and the last time they were both ranked in the top five – Michigan at #3 and Ohio State at #2 in 2016 – the matchup averaged a whopping 16.8 million. It seems a safe bet that this year’s game will place somewhere in that range. Even if it falls short, this year’s edition would have to be the least-watched since 2014 (8.2M) in order not to set a season-high. The current mark is 9.3 million for Michigan-Michigan State. Prediction: 8.2, 15.75M.

Alabama is favored by three touchdowns in this year’s edition of the Iron Bowl, but the Tide has found themselves in surprisingly competitive games against theoretically weak rivals all season — most recently eking out a win against an unranked LSU team over which they were a four-touchdown favorite. Quality of the game certainly matters; the Tide’s blowout win last year averaged 6.66 million, while Auburn’s narrow upset two years ago was nearly twice-as-high at 11.43 million. Should the Tigers keep things closer-than-expected this time around, or even pull off the unlikely, expect a big increase. Prediction: 5.5, 9.63M.

The “Bedlam” game lacks the national renown of Ohio State-Michigan or Alabama-Auburn, but it can still draw well under the right conditions. With both teams in the top ten, this year seems to qualify. Ratings and viewership should comfortably top last year’s “Bedlam” game, which aired the weekend before Thanksgiving and drew 4.1 million viewers. It might be harder to catch 2019, when the game drew 5.82 million. So far this season, the largest Big 12 audience is 5.94 million for Oklahoma-Texas last month. Prediction: 3.7, 6.32M.

Notre Dame has flown under the radar this season, at least by its standards. One imagines that repeatedly getting blown out in the playoff has taken at least some toll on how seriously people take Notre Dame as a contender. Nonetheless, the team enters its rivalry game against Stanford a three-touchdown favorite firmly in the mix for a return to the Final Four. The last time these teams played in 2019, the mid-afternoon matchup on FOX had 3.21 million viewers opposite the Iron Bowl. Facing lesser competition from Bedlam, expect a modestly better audience. Prediction: 2.3, 3.75M.

Most of the country gets the Rams and Packers in the FOX national window this Sunday, a solid matchup that should deliver an OK rating. Do not expect the numbers to measure up with last year’s comparable window, Mahomes’ Chiefs against Brady’s Buccaneers (23.12M). The Rams’ previous appearance in the “America’s Game of the Week” window — against the Buccaneers in Week 3 – drew 22.60 million. Expect a similar performance. Prediction: 11.3, 21.95M.

The 6-5 Browns were expected to be a lot better this season, but the remain firmly in the playoff chase entering their matchup with their Baltimore-based predecessors. Coming off their breakthrough last season, Cleveland has had surprisingly few national games this year, having played in front of a majority of TV markets just three times all season. Sunday Night Football has been slumping of late, with ratings and viewership down for three of the past four games. This week may well make it four of five. Last year’s comparable Bears-Packers game had a 9.1 and 16.48 million, which in this environment qualifies as decent. Prediction: 8.9, 16.02M.