Ratings predictions: CFP semis, Winter Classic and more

College football had a resurgent year in the ratings, but will that be enough to help the CFP semifinals overcome the ratings drag that is New Year’s Eve? This year marks the first time since 2016, and just the third time overall, that the semifinals have aired on the final day of the year. One might recall that when the playoff was first announced, the semifinals were set to air on New Year’s Eve each year unless being hosted by the Rose or Sugar bowls. The ratings for the first two years on the date were so low that the CFP changed plans.

One could credibly argue that the negative impact of New Year’s Eve is overstated. The New Year’s Eve ratings of 2015 and 2016 were not much worse than in 2018 (December 29), 2019 (December 28) or even last season — when neither of the New Year’s Day games managed a double-digit rating or 20 million viewers (no doubt hampered by COVID-related malaise). On the other hand, it may be possible that the soft numbers of the past few years would have been even worse if the games were played on New Year’s Eve.

This year’s semifinals figure to answer the question of just how big an impact New Year’s Eve has on the numbers.

Cotton Bowl: #4 Cincinnati – #1 Alabama (3:30p Fri): Cincinnati is the first group of five team to ever make a College Football Playoff semifinal and the Bearcats would seem to have their work cut out for them against a dynastic defending champion in Alabama. The Tide is favored by a modest two touchdowns, and anything approaching a competitive game — or an upset — should pique viewer interest. There are rarely David vs. Goliath matchups at this level of college football and they are usually outrageous blowouts. Cincinnati already proved last year that it could push an SEC team to the limit and the result was a strong showing for the Sugar Bowl. If they can do it again, one would think ratings could challenge last year’s 9.6 for Alabama’s rout of Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl.

On the other hand, the non-traditional matchup, weak timeslot and New Year’s Eve date all figure to be serious drags. It will have to be a great game to hold up in the ratings. Prediction: 8.1, 15.97M.

CFP Orange Bowl: #3 Georgia – #2 Michigan (7:30p Fri): Michigan is one of college football’s strongest draws, if not quite at the level of rival Ohio State. Facing a Georgia team that looked dominant all season until being humbled in the SEC title game, the Wolverines’ first trip to the CFP figures to be a strong draw — especially if the game is as close as the -7.5 spread. The New Year’s Eve competition puts a lower ceiling on just how well this game can do, but at the very least expect a stronger number than for Alabama-Cincinnati earlier in the day. Ohio State-Clemson last year drew a 9.8 and 19.15 million. Prediction: 8.9, 18.08M.

Notre Dame just missed out on the playoff this year, instead facing a top ten Oklahoma State team in a better-than-average Fiesta Bowl. In the same early New Year’s Day window last year, Georgia-Cincinnati scored a healthy 4.9 and 8.73 million in the Peach Bowl. That figure will be hard to top, but expect similar numbers. Prediction: 4.7, 8.98M.

The Rose Bowl gets the benefit of Ohio State’s presence this year in what should be a strong matchup against Utah. The Rose Bowl had a strong 8.7 and 16.30 million the last time it was played as scheduled (last year’s game took place in Arlington, Texas) and a similar number seems likely. The last time Ohio State played in the game, it drew an 8.9 and 16.78 million. Prediction: 8.8, 17.98M.

Two of the top teams in the NFC face off in the NFL national window Sunday as the Cowboys host the slumping Cardinals. Dallas has featured in four of the ten most-watched NFL windows this season, more than any other team. This week’s game should make it five. Prediction: 12.4, 24.21M.

The last time Sunday Night Football featured Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, it was against a sub-.500 NFC North rival and the game delivered NBC’s highest rating (10.2) since Week 4. Rodgers and the Packers face another sub.-500 NFC North rival this week. Will NBC have the same luck? Prediction: 9.6, 17.98M.

Perhaps no league has had its schedule torn up more than the NHL, which had to pull out of the Olympics in order to reschedule the dozens of games postponed thus far (the count is now 90). Nonetheless, the Winter Classic seems to be a go – though nobody can really know for sure until puck drop. If it is played, expect easily the lowest rated Winter Classic ever.

For events like the Winter Classic, habit is key. It is easy to imagine some viewers who have not kept up with NHL news tuning into NBC at 1 PM ET New Year’s Day, rather than remembering that the game is actually on in primetime on TNT. It also bears noting that ratings would likely decline under any conditions; the previous Winter Classic in 2020 (1.15) took place prior to the COVID-era of lower ratings. Prediction: 0.42, 800K.