Ratings predictions: Wild Card weekend, NBA on MLK Day

Coming off its most-watched regular season in six years (admittedly with an out-of-home caveat), the NFL enters its postseason in position to keep the good times rolling. Wild Card weekend features a slew of marquee teams and traditional rivalries, and if the remaining five games are as competitive as Raiders-Bengals was on Saturday afternoon, one imagines that the league’s media partners will have a particularly good story to tell when the ratings come out on Tuesday.

Recall that last year’s Wild Card games were played in front of reduced — or even zero — capacity and included a pair of games in which one of the announcers had to call a game remotely. It was the least-watched Wild Card weekend in recent memory.

49ers-Cowboys (4:30p Sun CBS, NICK): The late Sunday afternoon window is almost always the most-watched of any NFL weekend, regular season or playoffs. This year, it features a reprise of one of the league’s traditional rivalries, 49ers-Cowboys. The last time these teams met in the playoffs was 1994 and it would be fair to wonder if their rivalry still resonates after so many years. Nonetheless, the presence of the Cowboys alone should be enough to ensure massive viewership.

The last time Dallas played in the late Sunday Wild Card window — 2015 against Detroit — was also the last time any Wild Card game topped the 40 million viewer mark (42.32M). In the era of out-of-home, Sunday’s game should have no problem repeating that feat. Last year, Bears-Saints averaged a 16.4 and 30.65 million across CBS and Nickelodeon, marking the least-watched Wild Card game in the window since 2009. Prediction: 20.2, 44.3M.

Steelers-Chiefs (8:15p Sun NBC): The Chiefs routed the Steelers on the day after Christmas in one of the least compelling national games all season. Nonetheless, more than 24 million viewers tuned in (some of that was surely due to elevated out-of-home viewing over the Christmas holiday) – putting it just outside the top ten audiences of the season. Simply attracting as many viewers as that Week 16 game would put Steelers-Chiefs just shy of last year’s comparable Browns-Steelers Wild Card game (24.78M). Assuming a playoff bump and perhaps a closer game (Kansas City is favored by two touchdowns), viewership should comfortably surpass last year’s mark. Prediction: 14.2, 26.1M.

Eagles-Buccaneers (1p Sun FOX): Tom Brady faces one of the only two teams to ever defeat him in a Super Bowl as the Buccaneers host the Eagles Sunday afternoon. The combination of Brady and a top-five media market in Philadelphia should help FOX cruise past last year’s comparable 24.82 million for Ravens-Titans on the ESPN family of networks. Prediction: 15.0, 27.31M.

Cardinals-Rams (8:15p Mon ESPN, ABC, ESPN2): The NFL’s first ever Monday night playoff game closes out Wild Card weekend as the Cardinals face the Rams on the ESPN family of networks. There is of course no precedent for Monday Night Football in the postseason. The NFL had difficulty last season maintaining its usual Wild Card weekend audience across six, rather than four games. Will stretching the weekend from two to three days have a similar drag on the numbers?

The Cardinals-Rams matchup is not exactly an ideal test of the Monday night window, especially given Arizona’s weak play down the stretch. Even so, the Monday night Wild Card game should post much better numbers than the early Saturday afternoon window it replaces (Colts-Bills drew just 20.08 million on CBS last year).

Of note, college football’s national championship drew a 12.1 and 22.6 million in the same Monday night window last week (with no ABC simulcast). Prediction: 12.8, 23.3M.

Patriots-Bills (8:15p Sat CBS): The Patriots return to the playoffs in an AFC East rivalry game against Buffalo. Both of the teams’ matchups this season posted an increase in viewership, including the most-watched Monday Night Football game of the season that did not air on ABC. Expect ratings and viewership to comfortably top Tampa Bay-Washington in an empty stadium on NBC last year (21.37M). Prediction: 12.6, 23.9M.

With the NFL expanding Wild Card weekend to Monday night, the NBA has had to scale back its usual Martin Luther King Day marathon. Instead of a tripleheader that includes the usual primetime games, TNT will present an afternoon doubleheader. In the first game, Chicago faces Memphis in a matchup that looked a lot better a few days ago – before Chicago got smoked in consecutive nationally televised games and Memphis saw its ten-game winning streak snapped by Dallas. As it is, simply cracking the one million mark will be an accomplishment for a game that starts at 3:30 PM ET on a Monday. TNT’s afternoon game on MLK Day last year (Suns-Grizzlies at 5 PM) drew a 0.5 and 727,000. Prediction: 0.75, 1.31M.