Ratings predictions for Labor Day weekend sporting events, from Serena Williams’ last dance at the US Open to college football and the WNBA.
On Serena Williams’ last dance (and the ratings)
It has been a long road with the Williams sisters and the end could come Friday night. Serena Williams has already defied expectations to last this long in the US Open, pulling an upset of the #2 seed Wednesday night that will rank among her greatest career victories. Just two wins in and her run is already drawing comparisons to Jimmy Connors’ late-career flourish that was once a staple of rain delays (in the days before the retractable roof). If ESPN has all of its wishes answered, perhaps it will draw comparisons to Tiger Woods at the 2019 Masters.
Is it a touch overdone? ESPN could have overdone the moon landing. The presence of a countdown clock for a primetime doubles match is perhaps the essence of doing too much. Yet whatever discomfort there may be among some in tennis — and some have been uncomfortable with the Williams sisters since the days they wore beads in their hair — the extra attention is far from unwarranted. Williams’ first two matches averaged 2.7 and 3.6 million viewers, the kind of figures one typically sees for a Grand Slam final. The three nights Williams has played in primetime, including Thursday’s doubles match with Venus, viewership has been at least 50 percent higher than on the one night she did not play.
To borrow again from an old Sports Illustrated cover, “love her, hate her, they still watch her.” Despite it all — spurious accusations of match-fixing; complaints about the aforementioned beads, their dad, their perceived arrogance, their play against each other; criticism for not caring enough about tennis and not giving enough credit to their opponents; jokes about their appearance and their gender; nasty caricatures in tabloid newspapers; and outsized scrutiny of their behavior in a sport where meltdowns are not uncommon — it is hard to look at the atmosphere at the Open this past week and not conclude that the Williams sisters are, at least in the U.S., the most loved players in the sport.
Make no mistake, even amidst all the tributes, there are people in the sport (and who cover the sport) who will be glad when Serena’s run ends. Nonetheless, the true mark of a polarizing athlete is that they generate hate and love in equal measure. There may be no other tennis player who could have generated the kind of viscerally negative reaction Serena did for clashing with umpires in the 2009 and 2018 US Opens (McEnroe being the only other contender; Kyrgios simply is not famous enough). At the same time, there is no other tennis player who could generate the kind of outpouring seen so far this week, the kind of final-level atmosphere, the kind of media attention and the kind of audience (maybe Federer — but not in the U.S.).
Tennis will survive without Serena, just as every sport has survived without its biggest stars, but it is hard to imagine the sport ever mattering quite as much again in this country — at least until the next time a pair of siblings come out of nowhere to combine for 30 Grand Slam singles titles in 18 years. So it should not be long.
As for the match, it will be hard to live up to Wednesday’s three-set thriller against Kontaveit, both on the court and in the viewership. ESPN moving the match up to ESPN2 should help (and the match should easily top what Western Michigan-Michigan State would have drawn), but the football competition should result in a smaller audience.
US Open third round: Serena Williams – Ajla Tomljanovich (7p Fri ESPN). Prediction: 2.9M viewers.
How will the big college football games fare this weekend?
College football returns with a top-five matchup involving two of the biggest programs in the sport. Notre Dame and Ohio State have not met in the regular season since 1996, with two Fiesta Bowl matchups in the years since. The Buckeyes are favored by two touchdowns, but if the game is reasonably close the potential for historically strong viewership is high. Five years ago, a similarly high-profile Alabama-Florida State opener delivered more than 12 million viewers on ABC in an era before out-of-home viewing. Expect a similar number.
CFB: #5 Notre Dame – #2 Ohio State (8p Sat ABC). Prediction: 12.71M viewers.
The defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs open their season with a high-quality non-conference matchup against Oregon. Like Ohio State, the Dawgs are favored by two-touchdowns. A reasonably close game should do well, though not nearly as well as Notre Dame-Ohio State. Last year, an Alabama-Miami rout drew fewer than six million.
CFB: #11 Oregon – #3 Georgia (3:30p Sat ABC). Prediction: 6.20M.
Florida State is back on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend for a second-straight year, but with LSU a lower-profile opponent than Notre Dame last year, expect a decent drop in viewership. Last year’s game neared the eight million mark.
CFB: FSU – LSU (7:30p Sun ABC). Prediction: 5.94M.
After a down season last year, Clemson does not have the cachet entering this season that it once did. With Monday’s game expected to be lopsided (the Tigers are a 24.5-point favorite), expect nondescript numbers. Louisville-Mississippi had around three million last year.
CFB: #4 Clemson – Georgia Tech (8p Mon ESPN). Prediction: 3.33M.
Can the WNBA crack the million viewer mark for the first time in 14 years?
The last time a WNBA game averaged at least one million viewers, the Great Recession had yet to begin and Hillary Clinton was still battling Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. It was May 2008 and Candace Parker’s first career game. While the WNBA has had some positive ratings stories of late, a 14-year drought between million-viewer games is less than ideal — especially given that most other sports, and most other women’s sports, have gotten to that level in the decade-plus since.
Can the drought end this weekend? The Sunday of Labor Day weekend is largely untapped space. The PGA Tour ended last week, so there is no golf. College football is only in primetime. There is tennis, and if Serena Williams wins Friday, she would likely play Sunday afternoon. Other than that, the WNBA has Sunday largely to itself with one of its best matchups – top seed Las Vegas versus recent champion Seattle and the retiring Sue Bird. If there is any WNBA game to crack the million viewer mark, it will be this one.
WNBA: Las Vegas – Seattle Game 3 (3p Sun ABC). Prediction: 958K.
Previous predictions
— British Open, final round. Predictions: 2.9, 5.22M; results: 2.8, 4.55M.
— MLB All-Star Game. Prediction: 4.2, 7.91M; result: 4.2, 7.51M.
— MLB Home Run Derby. Prediction: 2.9, 5.87M; result: 3.6, 6.88M.
— MLB Draft, first round. Prediction: 918K; result: 780K.
— NBA Summer League, Trail Blazers-Knicks. Prediction: 465K; result: 297K.
— ESPY Awards: Prediction: 2.97M; result: 2.50M.
