Ratings predictions for Aaron Judge’s pursuit of 61 home runs, Week 3 of the NFL season and more. After delivering a season-high audience on Thursday, how well can the Judge chase hold up against Sunday Night Football this weekend?
How many viewers will tune in to watch Judge go for #61?
The Aaron Judge home run chase lifted FOX to an MLB season-high 3.23 million viewers Thursday night, no small feat given the NFL competition. With Judge still stuck on 60 home runs, the AL record-tying 61st could come during ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
In two head-to-head meetings with Sunday Night Football, Sunday Night Baseball has drawn just 787,000 and 634,000 viewers — low even by football season standards. There is little doubt that Sunday’s game will cruise past those levels, but how high can the numbers go? In the past ten seasons, no Sunday night game has averaged even two million viewers during the NFL season. Facing Sunday Night Football last season, Yankees-Red Sox drew in the neighborhood of 1.5 million viewers, though that was with no meaningful subplot.
It seems likely that the Judge factor should push the numbers comfortably past that mark — particularly with the ESPN2 “KayRod” cast adding to the audience — but with MLB dipping down from broadcast to cable and the NFL moving up from streaming to broadcast, do not expect a repeat of the Thursday night performance on FOX.
Even so, it seems a virtual lock that Sunday will mark the seventh Yankees-Red Sox game to rank among the ten most-watched MLB windows this season. The #10 spot is currently held by a Yankees-Mets game in July that averaged 2.12 million on ESPN.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox-Yankees (7p Sun ESPN/ESPN2). Prediction: 2.24M viewers.
Predicting Week 3 NFL viewership
Aaron Judge could peel a few viewers away from NBC’s Sunday Night Football this week, but the bigger drag figures to be an all-West Coast matchup. Both the 49ers and Broncos are traditional teams and Denver boasts star Russell Wilson, but both teams enter Week 3 on the shaky side — Denver after a pair of unimpressive games and San Francisco after losing their young quarterback for the season. It will be tough for the game to match last year’s 10.8 rating and around 20 million viewers for Packers-49ers.
NFL Sunday Night Football: 49ers-Broncos (8:20p Sun NBC). Prediction: 9.4, 17.6M.
The quarterback matchup of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers takes center stage for potentially the final time Sunday. The previous regular season meeting between these players two years ago averaged an 11.9 rating and north of 22 million viewers, not bad for the mostly fanless slog of that season. With NFL ratings on the rise the past two seasons, one would expect better numbers this time around.
It seems pretty likely that ratings and viewership will surpass last year’s 11.7 and around 23 million for coverage featuring Buccaneers-Rams. Matching last week’s impressive 14.1 and 27.4 million on CBS will be tougher.
NFL: mostly Packers-Buccaneers (4:25p Sun FOX). Prediction: 13.6, 25.2M.
There was once a time when Giants-Cowboys was the NFL’s highest-profile rivalry. Those days are gone with New York having been largely irrelevant in recent years, but the Giants start this season 2-0 — giving Monday’s matchup a little more pop than the past few years, at least on paper. The addition of an ABC simulcast should help Monday’s game surge past last year’s equivalent Eagles-Cowboys game, which aired on ESPN and ESPN2 alone and averaged an 8.1 with around 15 million viewers.
NFL Monday Night Football: Cowboys-Giants (8:15p Mon ABC/ESPN/ESPN2). Prediction: 10.4, 18.32M.
Additional predictions
CFB: Wisconsin – #3 Ohio State (7:30p Sat ABC): In what will soon be a thing of the past, ABC features a Big Ten conference matchup in its Saturday Night Football window this week as Ohio State hosts Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are making their second ABC appearance this season, with their first – against Notre Dame in week one – still ranking as the second-most watched game of the season with more than ten million viewers. This week’s game will not repeat that performance, but should pull in a solid number nonetheless. Prediction: 2.9, 5.43M.
NASCAR Cup Series: Texas (3:30p Sun USA): NASCAR barely eked out a victory over the NFL-fueled NHRA last weekend with a mere 1.1 and 1.78 million viewers — not exactly a performance that the sport will be bragging about for its marquee Bristol race. Expect better numbers for Texas this week, as even an NFL Sunday is better than a Saturday night. Prediction: 1.2, 1.98M.
Last week’s predictions
— NFL: Chargers-Chiefs. Prediction: 6.3M viewers (Amazon Prime only); result: 11.8M.
— NFL: mostly Bengals-Cowboys. Prediction: 11.9, 22.7M; result: 14.1, 27.4M.
— NFL: Bears-Packers. Prediction: 11.6, 21.9M; result: 10.6, 19.5M.
— NFL: Bills-Titans. Prediction: 5.0, 9.21M; result: 4.25, 7.92M.
— NFL: Vikings-Eagles. Prediction: 7.5, 13.92M; result: 7.0, 12.86M.
— WNBA Finals Game 3. Prediction: 600K; result: 579K.
— CFB: Oklahoma-Nebraska. Prediction: 4.53M; result: 3.41M.
— MLB on FOX (9/15). Prediction: 1.24M; result: 1.60M.
