First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Seahawks/Packers. Prediction: 16.9. Final rating: 17.0. Brett Favre and the Packers helped FOX to a strong rating Saturday afternoon. The 17.0 marks a 4% increase over the 16.4 Colts/Ravens drew in ’07, and is the highest rating for a Saturday afternoon Divisional game since ’05.
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Jaguars/Patriots. Prediction: 23.3. Final rating: 17.9. While the Patriots are still a huge draw, the Saturday night timeslot did them no favors. The 17.9 final rating for the Patriots’ victory over Jacksonville marks a 10% jump from Eagles/Saints in ’07, and is the highest rating for a Saturday Divisional game (afternoon or prime time) in two years. That being said, the 17.9 falls behind four regular season Patriots’ games, each of which drew ratings of 18 or higher.
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Chargers/Colts. Prediction: 15.6. Final rating: 20.2. The 20.2 for the Chargers’ victory over Peyton Manning and the Colts marked a 2% increase from Seahawks/Bears in ’07.
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Giants/Cowboys. Prediction: 24.7. Final rating: 23.6. Giants/Cowboys saw the biggest rating, and the biggest year-to-year increase, of the weekend. The 23.6 for the Giants’ close victory over Dallas marks a 15% increase from Patriots/Chargers last year. The game drew over 40 million viewers, the most for a television program since the ’07 Academy Awards. The 23.6 rating is the highest for a Divisional round game since 1997.
- College basketball on CBS, regional. Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 2.2. An unusually high rating for regular season college basketball is almost 100% a product of a huge NFL lead-in. The 2.2 marks a 214% increase over the 0.7 for the game on the comparable date last year. Keep in mind CBS aired its college basketball game at 1:00 PM last year, as its NFL telecast had the 4:30 PM timeslot.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Chargers/Patriots, 3:00 PM Sunday — If this were Colts/Patriots, a 30 rating would not be out of the question. Still, with the Patriots going for an 18-0 record, expect the rating for the AFC Championship Game to stay somewhat competitive with the 26.4 Patriots/Colts drew last year. Prediction: 24.1.
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Giants/Packers, 6:30 PM Sunday — While Packers/Cowboys would have been ratings gold, FOX can be satisfied with the #1 media market in the country and one of the most storied teams in the history of sports. Brett Favre and the Packers are a big draw, and if it snows on Sunday night, casual fans may find themselves drawn to the game. Prediction: 28.5.
- College basketball on ABC, Maryland/North Carolina, 3:30 PM Saturday — ABC begins its limited college basketball slate with two well-known programs. With North Carolina #1 in the nation, look for a decent audience for ABC’s season debut. Prediction: 1.6.
- College basketball on CBS, regional, 3:30 PM Saturday — CBS is hoping USC standout O.J. Mayo is a big draw, and certainly the #2 market in the U.S., Los Angeles, should contribute relatively large numbers to the USC/UCLA showdown. Without an NFL lead-in, however, do not expect CBS to quite keep up the pace it set last week. Prediction: 1.4.
- NHL on NBC, Bruins/Rangers, 12:30 PM Sunday — The excitement generated by the solid rating for the NHL Winter Classic is beginning to fade, and the NHL is headed back to reality. For the first time since gaining rights to the NHL in 2004, NBC will air a game on NFL Championship Sunday. Even though the game involves New York and Boston, both markets will be otherwise occupied, which could seriously dent the numbers. Prediction: 1.0.
