Ratings predictions for the College Football Playoff semifinals, a big Monday Night Football game and the NHL Winter Classic. Will viewership for the CFP semifinals bounce back from last year’s low?
Will College Football Playoff ratings bounce back from last year?
For the first time, the College Football Playoff features neither Alabama nor Clemson, though it is certainly not bereft of familiar faces. This year’s field includes defending champion Georgia, last year’s semifinalist Michigan and perennial contender Ohio State. Joining the three bluebloods is newcomer TCU, a program that has been knocking on the door of title contention for years.
When it comes to the playoff semifinals, what matters more than anything is competitive games. Of the 16 total, only three have been decided by single-digits. Those three games — Ohio State-Alabama in the 2014 season, Georgia-Oklahoma in the 2017 season and Clemson-Ohio State in 2019 — rank among the five most-watched semifinals. While that is not entirely because of the quality of the games (two of the three aired on New Year’s Day), it is not exactly a coincidence either.
The six least-watched semifinals were decided by at least three touchdowns, including last year’s pair — Alabama over Cincinnati by 21 (16.65M) and Georgia over Michigan by 23 (17.19M). Georgia and Michigan enter this year’s games favored by just a touchdown, and if the oddsmakers are onto something it stands to reason viewership will increase.
Game quality is the biggest factor but not the only one. Helping matters is the fact that New Year’s Eve falls on a Saturday, as opposed to last year (Friday). As New Year’s Eve is not a federal holiday, it is essentially an ordinary workday if it falls during the week. This year likely marks the final time that the playoff semifinals will take place on New Year’s Eve, presumably a relief to ESPN and the CFP. (Next year’s semifinals are set for New Year’s Day, then the playoff expands to 12 teams in subsequent years.)
As for the field, the absence of Alabama figures to hurt the ratings, but that should be mitigated somewhat by the presence of Ohio State. TCU is not a great draw on paper, but their Big 12 Championship thriller against Kansas State averaged an audience not far off of what Michigan and Georgia drew in their respective conference championship games (albeit both blowouts). TCU can draw well if the game is compelling, which brings the conversation back to the original point — the games have to be good.
— CFP semifinal at the Peach Bowl: #4 Ohio State-#1 Georgia (8p Sat ESPN Megacast). Prediction: 10.2 rating, 20.82M viewers.
— CFP semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl: #3 TCU-#2 Michigan (4p Sat ESPN Megacast). Prediction: 8.6, 17.03M.
Sugar Bowl: #9 Kansas State-#5 Alabama (Noon Sat ESPN). Noon on New Year’s Eve is simply no match for primetime on New Year’s Day, but a top-ten matchup featuring Alabama should nonetheless draw well. Last year’s Sugar Bowl averaged 9.88 million viewers, a mark that is probably out of reach even with the Tide involved. Nonetheless, expect a better number than this timeslot would usually produce. Prediction: 8.63M.
Rose Bowl: #11 Penn State-#8 Utah (5p Mon ESPN). Swapping Ohio State for Penn State almost certainly means a decline is in store for the Rose Bowl, but a good game should keep the numbers respectable. Last year’s audience of 16.6 million was the highest for a non-semifinal Rose Bowl in the playoff era. Prediction: 15.98M.
Will Bills-Bengals be the most-watched Monday night game in 20 years?
Whenever New Year’s Day falls on a Sunday, the NFL pushes college football’s New Year’s Day bowls to Monday, January 2. Fair enough. This year, the league has taken things a step further by scheduling a game on that date – bumping the Sugar Bowl out of its traditional timeslot and drafting off of one of the best lead-ins in sports, the Rose Bowl. Given the growing ire toward the NFL in the college ranks (the league next season is adding a game on another traditional college football day, Black Friday), one imagines few in the sport are pleased. (In fairness to the NFL, Week 17 used to be the final week of the season and feature no Monday night game. Now that it is the penultimate week, the league is simply maintaining its usual schedule.)
The NFL stopped deferring to other sports many years ago, from scheduling games opposite the World Series to its Christmas Day tripleheader last week. So far, it has paid no price – and nobody should expect that to change any time soon. This week’s Bills-Bengals game has the potential to be the most-watched edition of Monday Night Football since the series moved to ESPN in 2006, benefiting from the aforementioned Rose Bowl lead-in, the three-network presentation on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, and most importantly the high quality of the matchup — 12-3 Buffalo against the 11-4 defending AFC champions in Cincinnati. ESPN has rarely had as good a matchup in any week of MNF.
The largest Monday night audience since ESPN acquired rights was 21.84 million for Packers-Vikings in 2009, Brett Favre’s first game against his former team (the second-place game happened less than two months later, Patriots-Saints at 21.40 million). Monday’s game has a good shot at that mark, and perhaps more. Dating back to 2001, the largest MNF audience is 22.64 million for Steelers-Colts on ABC in Week 12 of the 2005 season.
— NFL Monday Night Football: Bills-Bengals (8:30p Mon ABC, ESPN). Prediction: 22.85M viewers.
Expect a big jump for the NHL Winter Classic
Last year, the NHL Winter Classic took place amidst a slew of postponements and featured a solid, if unspectacular matchup of St. Louis and Minnesota. This year’s game occurs in a more normal context (though a handful of games have been postponed due to weather lately) and features one of the league’s best matchups – Pittsburgh and Boston, the latter a league-leading 28-4-3. Expect a substantial increase over last year’s 1.36 million, and in the out-of-home era, do not be surprised if viewership beats the last NBC-era Winter Classic as well (1.96M).
— NHL Winter Classic: Penguins-Bruins (2p Mon TNT). Prediction: 2.00M viewers.
Previous predictions
— NFL: Eagles-Cowboys. Prediction: 23.8M; result: 27.8M
— NFL: Packers-Dolphins. Prediction: 26.4M; result: 25.9M
— NFL: Broncos-Rams. Prediction: 22.5M; result: 22.6M
— NFL: Buccaneers-Cardinals. Prediction: 20.2M; result: 17.1M
— NBA: Sixers-Knicks. Prediction: 3.86M; result: 4.07M
— NBA: Lakers-Mavericks. Prediction: 4.01M; result: 4.38M
— NBA: Bucks-Celtics. Prediction: 4.76M; result: 6.08M
— NBA: Grizzlies-Warriors. Prediction: 4.97M; result: 4.75M
— NBA: Suns-Nuggets. Prediction: 2.93M; result: 2.52M
— MCBB: DePaul-Creighton. Prediction: 3.03M; result: 2.99M
