Ratings predictions for the NFL playoffs as the Divisional Round gets underway, plus a couple of other events. Viewership mostly declined for the Wild Card weekend, the lone exception being the games involving the Cowboys and Bills. Dallas and Buffalo take center stage on Sunday in what figures to be a potent Divisional Round doubleheader.
Expect big numbers for Sunday’s Divisional Round games
Just three weeks ago, the Bengals and Bills met on Monday Night Football in one of the most anticipated NFL regular season games in recent memory. Just minutes into the first quarter, Bills S Damar Hamlin collapsed of cardiac arrest in one of the more shocking events in the history of televised sports. The game was called off and eventually canceled. Hamlin’s recovery — the speed of which is itself shocking — has evaporated the considerable pall the incident cast over the NFL and made the Bills a sentimental favorite in this postseason. Now the Bills and Bengals meet again in a Divisional Round matchup that would have been eagerly-awaited no matter the circumstances, but now carries extra weight.
On most days, a game like Bengals-Bills would be the main event. This year, it is the undercard on a night when the Cowboys-49ers rivalry takes center stage.
Nobody can seriously dispute that the Cowboys are the biggest draw in football. Dallas played in five of the six most-watched games during the regular season and attracted a Sunday-sized audience to the Monday night Wild Card game. Facing one of their traditional rivals in the same early evening timeslot occupied by the Super Bowl, the Cowboys figure to attract their largest audience yet this season – surpassing the 42 million who watched them defeat the Giants on Thanksgiving Day. The only real question is how high the numbers will go. The all-time record for a Divisional Round game is 48.52 million viewers for the Cowboys’ 2017 loss to the Packers. Even in the out-of-home era, that will be a tough number to reach. Then again, just one year ago these same two teams combined to deliver 41 million in the Wild Card round.
Record or not, expect viewership to outpace last year’s all-time classic Bills-Chiefs game on CBS, which drew 42.7 million in the same late window. Also expect Bengals-Bills to surpass last year’s comparable Rams-Buccaneers game on NBC, which clocked in at 38.1 million.
AFC Divisional Round: Bengals-Bills (3p Sun CBS). Prediction: 41.2M.
NFC Divisional Round: Cowboys-49ers (6:30p Sun FOX). Prediction: 45.3M.
Predictions for Saturday’s games
The Saturday Divisional Round games feature a pair of teams few would have expected at the start of the season, the Jaguars and Giants.
Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence have yet to catch on in the Nielsens, if last week is any indication. A 27-0 deficit no doubt had something to do with it, but the Jaguars’ comeback win over the Chargers was the least-watched primetime NFL playoff game on record — no small feat in the out-of-home era. The Chiefs’ presence should keep the ratings strong, but Saturday’s game will have to be competitive throughout if viewership is to keep pace with Bengals-Titans last year (30.75M).
In primetime Saturday night, FOX gets a big market, NFC East clash as the Giants face the Eagles. Last year’s 49ers-Packers game set a high bar with nearly 37 million viewers, a number that is unlikely to be matched even if the game is close. Nonetheless, expect a strong number.
AFC Divisional Round: Jaguars-Chiefs. Prediction: 28.8M viewers.
NFC Divisional Round: Giants-Eagles. Prediction: 33.7M viewers.
Additional predictions
UFC returns to broadcast television Saturday night as ABC carries UFC 283 prelims. ABC simulcast two prelims alongside ESPN last season, with the first averaging 1.80 million and the second 1.36 million. Neither of those windows faced the NFL. Expect a lesser tune-in this time around.
UFC 283 prelims (8p Sat ABC & ESPN). Prediction: 1.25M viewers.
College gymnastics gets a rare Sunday night slot on the ESPN flagship as perennial title contenders Utah and Oklahoma square off. There is not much ratings upside in counterprogramming the NFL playoffs, but the bar is fairly low for this sport. The most-watched meet of the season thus far had just 154,000 viewers.
Women’s college gymnastics: Utah-Oklahoma (7:45p Sun ESPN). Prediction: 182K.
Last week’s predictions
— NFC Wild Card: Cowboys-Buccaneers. Prediction: 33.7M; result: 31.2M
— NFC Wild Card: Giants-Vikings. Prediction: 32.6M; result: 33.2M
— AFC Wild Card: Chargers-Jaguars. Prediction: 25.0M; result: 20.6M
— AFC Wild Card: Dolphins-Bills. Prediction: 26.6M; result: 30.9M
— AFC Wild Card: Ravens-Bengals. Prediction: 23.9M; result: 26.9M
— NFC Wild Card: Seahawks-49ers. Prediction: 22.1M; result: 27.5M
— NBA: Bucks-Heat. Prediction: 0.6, 979K; result: 0.8, 1.35M
— NBA: Heat-Hawks. Prediction: 681K; result: 604K
— NBA: Suns-Grizzlies. Prediction: 715K; result: 805K
