First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NFL Playoffs on CBS, Chargers/Patriots. Prediction: 24.1. Final rating: 25.7. The Patriots pursuit of perfection continues to be a big draw. The 25.7 for the AFC title game is the second largest rating for the early Conference Championship game in the past ten years. Only Falcons/Eagles in 2005 drew a bigger rating. The 25.7 also marks a 2% increase over Saints/Bears last year.
- NFL Playoffs on FOX, Giants/Packers. Prediction: 28.5. Final rating: 29.0. Giants/Packers was a mammoth of a game, drawing the most viewers for a non-Super Bowl program since the series finale of Seinfeld, and drawing the largest rating for an NFL Conference Championship game since 1997. When Lawrence Tynes hit the game winning field goal for the Giants, over 60 million viewers were watching.
- College basketball on ABC, Maryland/North Carolina. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.7. A major upset gave ABC a major ratings bump last Saturday. The 1.7 for Maryland toppling previously undefeated North Carolina marks a 42% increase over the 1.2 for NC State/Duke on the comparable date in ’07.
- College basketball on CBS, regional. Prediction: 1.4. Final rating: 1.3. The battle of L.A. did not give CBS huge ratings last week. The 1.3 for regional coverage featuring USC and UCLA marks a 7% decline from comparable coverage last year, when CBS averaged a 1.4 for a college basketball doubleheader.
- NHL on NBC, Bruins/Rangers. Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 0.8. The NHL got off to a less than ideal start on NBC. The 0.8 rating for Bruins/Rangers partly reflects its 12:30 PM timeslot, and the fact that it aired on NFL Conference Championship Sunday. The next NHL on NBC telecast will be on Super Bowl Sunday, meaning there may not be a truly accurate gauge of NHL ratings on broadcast until mid-February.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Celtics/Magic, 1 PM Sunday — The drawing power of the Boston Celtics will finally be tested this Sunday. Can Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce pull in enough viewers for this game to surpass the 2.1 for Suns/Cavaliers last year? Prediction: 2.2.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Lakers, 3:30 PM Sunday — Kobe versus LeBron is always a big draw, and the Sunday before the Super Bowl is usually on the of the highest rated, if not the highest rated, regular season Sunday of the year for ABC. Last year, a close Spurs/Lakers game drew an unusually high 2.8. Could Cavs/Lakers do the unheard of and be the first non-Christmas regular season NBA game to draw a 3.0 in nearly three years? Prediction: 2.7.
- NHL All Star Game on Versus, 6:30 PM Sunday — The NHL All Star Game figures to put up a better number than it did last year, when it drew a mere 0.7 on a Wednesday night. With so much positive momentum for the NHL this season, look for Versus to draw its biggest NHL rating. Prediction: 1.0.
- Winter X Games on ABC, 3:30 PM Saturday — Last year, the Winter X Games drew a 1.2 on ABC, in an earlier timeslot. With a 3.30 start, look for slightly better numbers. Prediction: 1.5.
- U.S. Figure Skating Championships on NBC, Women’s Final, 8 PM Saturday — Thanks to the ongoing writer’s strike, the U.S. Figure Skating Championships gets prime time exposure. Last year, the Women’s Final drew a mere 1.9 in a late afternoon slot on ABC. While a prime time timeslot could conceivably lead to more viewers, do not expect the overall trend of falling ratings for this event to end. Prediction: 1.7.
- PGA on CBS, Buick Invitational, Final Round, 3 PM Sunday — This will easily be the highest rated event on a crowded sports weekend. Tiger Woods equals big ratings, no matter what the event. Depending on how well he does, the Buick Invitational could draw as high as a 6.0 rating. Last year, the final round drew a 5.3. Prediction: 5.5.
