First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Bulls/Heat Game 4. Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 2.4. The 2.4 is down 14% from the comparable Game 4 between the same two teams in the same timeslot last year. Yet another steep drop from the overnight, which was a 3.2, to the final rating. Has the NBA lost Middle America? Likely. Should it care? That’s debatable.
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Suns/Lakers Game 4. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 3.3. Down 23% from the comparable Game 4 between the same two teams in the same timeslot last year. Amazingly, the Lakers flew under the radar during their short playoff run. And just like the Bulls/Heat game, this one sees an amazing drop from the overnight, which was a 4.3, to the final rating. The small markets have completely tuned out, and are dragging down the numbers.
- MLB on FOX, Red Sox/Yankees. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 2.9. On par with what was predicted; Boston and New York are major draws, but the interest does not just lie in those two big cities. By comparison to the NBA games, which saw differences of .8 and 1.0 between the overnight rating and the final rating, baseball only saw a .4 drop in the numbers — from a 3.3 overnight to a 2.9 final. Middle America digs its pastime and reviles the more edgy roundball.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Sharks/Red Wings Game 2. Prediction: 0.6. Final rating: 0.8. As bad as the numbers for the NBA are, the numbers for hockey are infinitely worse.
- NHL Playoffs on NBC, Sabres/Rangers Game 3. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.0. Everything fell into place for Bettman and company; a big hockey market (Buffalo) versus the biggest television market (New York) in a game that went two overtimes and bled briefly into the evening news. Still, the game draws only 1% of the audience.
NFL Draft final rating currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Nets at Raptors Game 7 or Nets/Cavaliers Game 1, 1:00 PM Sunday — Ratings are so bad that ABC would likely not see any difference in numbers for a game involving Toronto (a city whose television ratings do not count in the U.S.) and a game involving star player LeBron James. No matter what, the numbers should be fairly entrenched in the basement. Whether its a Game 7 or a Game 1, expect this to be the most embarrassing weekend ratings-wise of this entire ABC/ESPN debacle. Prediction: 2.0.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs at Suns Game 1, 3:30 PM Sunday — The comparable game last year, between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons, drew a 3.7 rating — a number that may be impossible for the NBA on ABC to attain this postseason. Still, Tim Duncan and Steve Nash are recognizable names, and this series has been talked about for several months. Time for some cautious optimism. The rating for this game, the first of the second round, will be indicative as to whether or not the league can expect record lows for the rest of the playoffs. Prediction: 4.0.
- NBA on TNT, Jazz at Rockets Game 7, 9:30 PM Saturday — The comparable game last year featured the Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns, which drew a large-for-cable 3.1 rating. While the Utah/Houston series has been intense, it has also been well under the radar. With the De La Hoya/Mayweather fight to compete with, do not expect big numbers for this game. Prediction: 2.1.
- NHL on NBC, Sharks at Red Wings Game 5, 2:00 PM Saturday — Hockey fans and Barbaro bashers had to be pleased that the multiple overtime game on Sunday preempted the wholly unnecessary documentary “Barbaro: A Nation’s Horse“. This week, hockey fans must hope and pray that Sharks/Red Wings does not go overtime, otherwise the league may face its most embarrassing moment of all time — having the overtime portion of a game on broadcast TV moved to cable, in favor of a Kentucky Derby pregame show. Prediction: 0.9.
- NHL on NBC, Sabres at Rangers Game 6, 2:00 PM Sunday — If a multiple overtime game between these same two teams last week could not even draw a rating higher than 1.0, do not expect big numbers for Game 6 this Sunday. Prediction: 1.2.
- Kentucky Derby on NBC, 4:30 PM Saturday — While there is little buzz for horse racing, NBC Universal is doing everything it can on multiple platforms to get people interested. Prediction: 8.5.
