First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- NBA Playoffs on ABC, Utah at San Antonio Game 1. Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 3.1. The Sports Business Daily reports that Jazz/Spurs Game 1 drew a 3.1 rating, while other reports say that the game drew a 3.0 rating — and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the game drew a 2.9 rating. No matter what, Game 1 was down at least 49% from the game in the comparable timeslot last year.
- NHL on NBC, Ottawa at Buffalo Game 5. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 0.9. Many complained about NBC leaving this game to cover the Preakness Stakes, but the network was justified economically. The Preakness pre-race drew a 3.7 final rating, 12% higher than the rating for Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals last year (3.3). The 0.9 for Senators/Sabres is down 10% from Game 1 of the Hurricanes/Sabres series which aired on the comparable date last year.
- NHL on NBC, Anaheim at Detroit Game 5. Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 1.4. A 100% increase from the comparable Arena Football League game NBC aired in that timeslot last year.
- MLB on FOX, NY Yankees at NY Mets. Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 2.9. Another huge rating for a baseball game on FOX; unlike the NBA and NHL, baseball has the luxury of having several prominent large-market teams playing relatively well.
- NBA on ESPN, Phoenix at San Antonio Game 6. Prediction: 4.0. Final rating: 3.2. Despite all the hype for the series, Game 6 ends up down 18% from the 3.9 Spurs/Mavericks Game 6 drew last year. Game 5 of the series drew a higher rating (3.4), but that game was also down from the comparable Game 5 of Mavs/Spurs in 2006.
- NASCAR on Speed Channel, Nextel All-Star Challenge. Prediction: 2.8. Final rating: 2.3. A decent rating, though less than half the number the NBA All-Star Game and the Pro Bowl put up this year.
This week’s predictions:
- Indianapolis 500 on ABC, 12:00 PM Sunday — Very little buzz for the crown jewel of the Indy Racing League. With ESPN/ABC having shifted its focus to NASCAR, there is far less incentive than in previous years to hype the Indy 500. Prediction: 4.6.
- NASCAR on FOX, Coca-Cola 600, 5:00 PM Sunday — The Coca Cola 600 has not beaten the Indianapolis 500 in the ratings since 2004; last year, both races drew a 5.1 rating, and in 2005, the Indy 500 drew a 6.5 rating while the Coca-Cola 600 drew a 6.1. This year, expect NASCAR to come out on top. Prediction: 5.3.
- NBA on ABC, San Antonio at Utah Game 3, 8:00 PM Saturday — With the Spurs up 2-0, many basketball fans uninterested in the series, two very small markets and a Saturday night timeslot, expect some comically low ratings for this Conference Final game. Prediction: 2.3.
- NBA on TNT, Detroit at Cleveland Game 3, 8:00 PM Sunday — Detroit may be up 2-0, but the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals were close enough to possibly attract some fans who may have otherwise passed on the game. Game 1 of the series drew a 2.7 rating, down 27% from Game 1 of last year’s East Final between the Heat and Pistons. Prediction: 3.0.
- NHL on Versus, Ottawa at Anaheim Game 1, 8:00 PM Monday — NHL executives must be far from excited about a series that pits a Canadian team against a secondary team in its own market. With the game airing on Versus and competition from the NBA Playoffs (as bad as the ratings are for the NBA, they still far exceed the numbers for the NHL), this game will struggle to even match 0.9 cable rating that Game 1 of last year’s Stanley Cup Final drew. Prediction: 0.8 cable rating.
Edited to add ratings for Suns/Spurs Game 6 on ESPN and Nextel All-Star Challenge on Speed Channel.
