Much has been made of the record low ratings for the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals. Several have used the numbers as an excuse to say that both sports are now irrelevant. Nevermind the fact that the World Series set a record low rating last October, or the fact that ratings for the Daytona 500, Indianapolis 500, Bowl Championship Series and Final Four National Semifinal games have declined as well. To many, the NBA and NHL are in worse shape than any of their competitors.
Is this opinion possibly shaped by the fact that both leagues are essentially the black sheep of the four major sports? The NHL has been constantly derided among many corners, especially in mainstream sports media. Shows like Around the Horn take perverse pleasure in mocking the league. The NBA, meanwhile, is hated by many due to the preponderance of ‘hip-hop’ culture, and its players are judged harshly and unfairly by many elements in the mainstream media — the latest example of this being the silence of the mainstream media regarding a fairly violent Major League Baseball brawl over the weekend, by comparison to the furor over a Knicks/Nuggets fight last December.
While it may be true that the NHL and NBA are generally the most criticized of the four major sports, and while that may play a role in the fact that both leagues are perceived as fading fast, it should be pointed out that numbers do not lie. The NBA Finals drew a record low 6.2 rating for four games, while the Stanley Cup Finals drew a 1.6 rating on NBC for three games. Those results are far from acceptable for either league.
Still, the prevailing opinion that these leagues are in dire shape is misinformed.
NHL.
How would the NHL have performed had the Sabres and Red Wings advanced to the Stanley Cup Final? Considering the huge ratings from the Buffalo market over the season and the playoffs, one would imagine that a Stanley Cup Final series involving the Sabres would draw almost astronomical numbers locally. The Sabres’ clinching victory over the New York Rangers in the second round drew a 32 rating in Buffalo, in the afternoon on NBC.
Combine that with a market like Detroit, the self-proclaimed ‘Hockeytown’, and the likelihood is that the ratings would have been significantly higher than the 1.6 average NBC drew for its three games. Certainly, the series would not have drawn an extremely high average; the NHL will be hard pressed to ever again average a 3.0 rating for its championship series. Still, had Buffalo and Detroit advanced, the NHL would likely not have had to deal with setting all-time record lows for its prime-time broadcasts.
One major factor in the terrible ratings for the NHL in recent years is the fact that a Canadian team has made the Stanley Cup Finals each of the past three seasons. There has not been an all-American Stanley Cup Final since 2002. Canadian cities do not count in U.S. television ratings, meaning that in each of the past three years, the NHL has had only one U.S. market with a vested interest in its championship. As the 2000 World Series showed, having only one market involved in a series is not good for television ratings.
NBA.
The NBA, meanwhile, was cursed with small markets and uncompetitive series. The champion San Antonio Spurs came from the #37 market in the U.S., and have been involved in three of the six lowest-rated NBA Finals in history. The Cleveland Cavaliers hailed from the #17 market in the U.S., though their small market size was presumed to be a small factor due to their superstar, LeBron James. Unfortunately for the NBA, James was unable to perform even remotely well during the series against the Spurs, an uninspiring and unwatchable sweep.
The fact that the Finals came on the heels of a relatively uninspiring playoffs did not help; only one series in the entire 2007 NBA Playoffs went seven games (as opposed to four series in 2006), NBA finalists Dallas and Miami were eliminated in the first round, and the casual fan-pleasing Phoenix Suns were eliminated prior to the Conference Finals. Ratings for the Conference Finals were down significantly for both Spurs/Utah Jazz and Cavaliers/Detroit Pistons, as most observers assumed that the Spurs and Pistons would win quite easily. It was not until James and the Cavaliers tied their series against Detroit that the ratings improved to last year’s levels.
The sharp increase in ratings for the Eastern Conference Finals from Game 2 to Game 6 might be the best indicator of the health of the NBA on television. Through the first four games of the series between the Cavaliers and Pistons, and especially following the first two games, most viewers assumed the series was going according to plan, and the Pistons would win. Ratings reflected the seeming predictability of the series, as the numbers were down sharply from 2006. Once the series became competitive, the numbers went up significantly, including a 5.3 cable rating for Game 6. Had the NBA seen more competitive series, such as the several close match-ups last season, there is a strong probability that ratings would have at the very least approached last year’s numbers.
Conclusion.
Both the NHL and NBA were the victims of uncompetitive series and small markets. The World Series faced the same symptoms as well. The NBA Finals finished in a sweep for the first time since 2002, while the World Series and Stanley Cup Finals ended in five games. The teams involved in the three series hailed from the #2 (Anaheim), #7 (Detroit), #17 (Cleveland), #21 (St. Louis) and #37 (San Antonio) media markets.
Ottawa is a Canadian city that does not count in U.S. television ratings. Additionally, keep in mind that while Anaheim is the Los Angeles market, the Ducks are essentially second-banana to the Los Angeles Kings. The Ducks’ championship run had essentially the same effect as the Chicago White Sox run in 2005 (which set a record low rating for the World Series at the time).
While no league can expect to count on the success of large markets every year (though baseball is fortunate thanks to the success of both New York teams, both L.A. teams and Boston), having teams from such small markets succeed in relatively boring series can only add up to disaster.
Save the NFL, no league can draw big ratings, or even decent ratings, when faced with small markets squaring off in uncompetitive, lifeless series. The NBA and NHL will be in trouble when an exciting, seven-game series between two large markets draws a record low rating. Until then, both leagues can simply look back at 2007 as a bad year, and look forward to making changes for 2008.
