First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox. Prediction: 3.4. Final rating: 2.6. The 2.6 marks a 117% increase over the 1.2 for MLB on FOX the prior week. This year, four Yankees-Red Sox games on FOX averaged a 3.0 rating, 36% higher than the 2.2 rating for games in which the teams did not play each other.
- MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Red Sox. Prediction: 2.5. Final rating: 3.0. Interest in Yankees-Red Sox is apparently way up from last year. The 3.0 rating for the rivals’ Sunday night contest on ESPN is a 67% increase over the 1.8 rating for the same match-up last year.
- College football on ABC, Notre Dame/Michigan. Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 2.5. Notre Dame and Michigan may be marquee teams, but their play turned viewers off. The 2.5 rating for the Wolverines’ stomping of the Irish was a 26% decline from the comparable coverage on ABC last year. The 2.5 was also a 42% decline from the 4.3 rating for last year’s game between the two rivals, which aired on NBC.
- College football on CBS, Tennessee/Florida. Prediction: 3.8. Final rating: 2.6. The Yankees and Red Sox put a serious dent in the ratings for college football games in that timeslot; in addition to the major declines for Michigan/Notre Dame, Tennessee/Florida fell a steep 30% from last season.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, USC/Nebraska. Prediction: 3.2. Final rating: 4.5. While afternoon college football took a hit, Saturday Night Football was a hit for ABC. The 4.5 rating for USC’s victory is a 25% increase over the 3.6 rating for the same match-up in the same timeslot last year.
- NASCAR on ABC, Sylvania 300. Prediction: 4.2. Final rating: 3.3. Not a good week for NASCAR by any stretch. The 3.3 rating for the first race of the Chase for the Nextel Cup is a 10% increase over the 3.0 rating for the same race last year. However, the 2006 race aired on cable, which accounts for the increase. The 3.3 is tied for the second-lowest rating of the year for NASCAR (broadcast or cable) and is the lowest rating for a Chase for the Cup race on broadcast television.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Chargers/Patriots. Prediction: 14.5. Final rating: 9.8. Despite all the attention paid to the New England Patriots during the week, the Bill Belichick spying controversy was not much of a draw for viewers. While a 9.8 rating is superb by any stretch, it marks an 18% decrease from last year’s Washington/Cowboys game.
- Monday Night Football on ESPN, Washington/Eagles. Prediction: 7.6. Final rating: 7.7. For the third straight game, Monday Night Football sees declining ratings. The 7.7 is down 13% from an 8.8 rating for the comparable Steelers/Jaguars game last year. Still, the game marks the highest rated event on ESPN this year.
Ratings for “NFL on CBS: Chiefs/Bears” currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX, Mets/Marlins, Brewers/Braves or Mariners/Angels, 3:30 PM Saturday — Usually, any game involving the moribund Marlins would be a turn off. However, with the Mets currently in the midst of a potentially comical choke job, look for a Marlins home game with fewer than 500 in attendance to be less of a ratings nightmare. Prediction: 2.0.
- College football on ABC, Penn State/Michigan, 3:30 PM Saturday — With Michigan struggling, do not expect big numbers for this Big 10 battle. ABC will have some big ratings to live up to; last year, regional coverage during the 3:30 PM timeslot drew a huge 5.2 rating. Prediction: 2.6.
- College football on CBS, South Carolina/LSU, 3:30 PM Saturday — A huge inter conference Top 25 battle should lure the eyeballs that were not watching last week’s regular season debut of SEC football on CBS; expect the rating to easily top the 2.2 Alabama/Arkansas pulled in the same timeslot last year. Prediction: 4.1.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Washington State/USC or Iowa/Wisconsin, 8:00 PM Saturday — Neither of ABC’s regional match-ups should spark widespread national interest. Look for decent to mediocre ratings that will assuredly be far lower than the 5.6 for the Notre Dame/Michigan State Saturday night game last year. Prediction: 3.7.
- Notre Dame football on NBC, Michigan State/Notre Dame, 3:30 PM Saturday — NBC is in for major ratings declines all season, as Notre Dame is on pace for a terrible year. Last year, ND/Mich St drew a 5.6 rating on ABC in prime time. Prediction: 2.3.
- NASCAR on ABC, Dodge Dealers 400, 1:30 PM Sunday — Coming off of a terrible 3.3 rating to start the Chase for the Cup, ABC is hoping that the fans who tuned out last Sunday return this week. The race on the comparable date last year drew a 3.0 rating on TNT. Prediction: 3.9.
- NFL on FOX, Giants/Washington, 4:00 PM Sunday — With Washington a surprising 2-0 and the Giants a — relatively — surprising 0-2, there may be enough intrigue in this game to pull the rating close to the 12.3 Giants/Seahawks drew last year. Prediction: 12.0.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Cowboys/Bears, 8:00 PM Sunday — The #3 and #5 media markets in the country, two of the most famed teams in all of the NFL, with one of those teams the reigning NFC champion and the other branded as “America’s team”. All the factors are in play for a huge rating this Sunday. Prediction: 14.7.
- Monday Night Football on ESPN, Titans/Saints, 8:30 PM Monday — Two of the young stars in the NFL, Vince Young and Reggie Bush, square off in a game that should draw decent numbers. Prediction: 8.0.
