First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- U.S. Open on CBS, Women’s Final, Henin/Kuznetsova. Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 2.1. Ratings for Justine Henin‘s win over Svetlana Kuznetsova were down 13% from last year and were the lowest ever for the Women’s Final. The previous record low was a 2.2 final rating for the 2004 final, which featured Kuznetsova versus Elena Dementieva.
- U.S. Open on CBS, Men’s Final, Federer/Djokovic. Prediction: 2.6. Final rating: 3.7. Roger Federer is officially a draw. Despite facing off against a still relatively unknown Novak Djokovic, Federer’s still pulled in a decent audience for his twelfth Grand Slam victory. While the 3.7 is off 10% from a 4.1 last year, the match was the sixth-highest rated sporting event on broadcast during the stacked weekend, falling behind only college football, the NFL and NASCAR.
- NASCAR on ABC, Chevy Rock & Roll 400. Prediction: 4.7. Final rating: 4.2. While nobody can be quarrel with a 4.2 rating on a Saturday night, one wonders if ABC expected better numbers for the first NASCAR race on broadcast since June.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action. Prediction: 2.1. Final rating: 1.2. After a strong start to the season, FOX has seen nothing but disappointing ratings since the All Star Break. The 1.2 rating is the lowest of the season and likely the lowest ever for a Major League Baseball game on network television. The rating for the Men’s Semifinal at the U.S. Open between Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer outdrew FOX by 33%.
- College football on ABC, Miami/Oklahoma. Prediction: 3.1. Final rating: 2.7. Considering the timeslot, a 2.7 rating is solid. Still, anything under a 3.0 is mediocre for a college football telecast on network television.
- College football on ABC, Oregon/Michigan. Prediction: 3.5. Final rating: 4.4. ABC sees a 22% jump for a battle of unranked teams that turned into a blowout. So far this season, ABC is averaging a 3.5 metered market average for four college football games, down 35% from a 5.4 metered market average for four games last year.
- College football on ESPN, Florida St./Clemson (9/3). Prediction: 4.8. Final rating: 4.3. The Bowden Bowl is no FSU/Miami; the 4.3 rating, while huge for cable, is off 25% from a 5.7 rating for the comparable Seminoles/Hurricanes last year.
- NFL on FOX and CBS, Regional action. Predictions: 7.6 and 8.5. Final ratings: 6.5 and 9.4. Mixed ratings for the early games; the 6.5 final rating for FOX is down 13% from the comparable 7.5 rating last year, while the 9.4 rating for CBS is up 16% over the 8.1 rating posted in 2006.
- NFL on FOX, Bears/Chargers. Prediction: 13.5. Final rating: 13.6. Not the best NFL Sunday for FOX; in addition to the 13% drop for the early game, Bears/Chargers fell 6% from last year.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Giants/Cowboys. Prediction: 15.9. Final rating: 11.6. While an 11.6 rating is impressive, NBC has to be disappointed. Last year, two games between the Giants and Cowboys were the highest rated of the year on broadcast and cable, with their match-up on FOX in December of ’06 drawing a 17.8 rating, and their game on ESPN in October setting a then-record on cable. The 11.6 is off 19% from a 14.3 for Colts/Giants last year.
- IRL on ABC, Peak Antifreeze 400. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 0.9. The IRL ends its season with a significant ratings increase; the 0.9 rating for its season finale is up 29% over the 0.7 rating for the same event last year.
- IRL on ABC, Detroit Grand Prix (9/2). Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 1.0. The Detroit Grand Prix came to within 462,000 viewers of the MLB on FOX during the week of September 2.
- WNBA on ABC, Fever/Shock (9/2). Prediction: 0.5. Final rating: 0.7. The 0.7 for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals tied the All Star Game as the highest rated WNBA game of the season. During the regular season, ABC was down 14% in television ratings and 19% in total viewers.
This week’s predictions:
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox, 3:30 PM Saturday — This will be a litmus test for Major League Baseball heading into its postseason. Since June 30, no baseball game on FOX has seen an increase over last year, and in the past two weeks, MLB on FOX has posted ratings of 1.4 and 1.2, respectively. Opposite college football, the rating for this crucial battle between heated rivals will be indicative of baseball’s status versus its football rivals. So far this season, Yankees/Red Sox games have been the highest rated on FOX, averaging a 3.1. Prediction: 3.4.
- MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Red Sox, 8:00 PM Sunday — Yankees/Red Sox games have brought ESPN extremely high ratings; this year alone, two games between the teams on Sunday Night Baseball have been the two highest rated MLB telecasts on ESPN since 1998. Opposite Sunday Night Football on NBC, look for less spectacular numbers. Prediction: 2.5.
- College football on ABC, Notre Dame/Michigan, 3:30 PM Saturday — Three rivalry games air opposite each other; Yankees/Red Sox on FOX, Irish/Wolverines on ABC, and Vols/Gators on CBS. With Notre Dame and Michigan struggling significantly, look for this game to be the lowest rated of the three. Prediction: 3.0.
- College football on CBS, Tennessee/Florida, 3:30 PM Saturday — Are there enough viewers to go around? CBS certainly hopes so; the season-opening battle between the defending champion Gators and high-profile Tennessee should draw some decent numbers. Prediction: 3.8.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, USC/Nebraska, 8:00 PM Saturday — The last time these two teams met, the ratings were relatively unimpressive, as only 3.6% of households tuned into watch a USC victory. Look for another disappointing number. Prediction: 3.2.
- NASCAR on ABC, Sylvania 300, 2:00 PM Sunday — Last year, the Sylvania 300 drew a 3.0 rating on TNT; with the race moving to broadcast, look for larger numbers. However, opposite the NFL, do not expect those numbers to approach the levels from earlier in the season. Prediction: 4.2.
- NFL on CBS, Chiefs/Bears, 4:00 PM Sunday — By virtue of being defending NFC Champions are being from the #3 market in the U.S., the Chicago Bears have become a major television draw. Look for CBS to draw close to the same numbers it put up for the comparable Patriots/Jets game last year. Prediction: 11.0.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Chargers/Patriots, 8:00 PM — With all the furor circulating around the New England Patriots in wake of their cheating scandal, expect an even bigger audience for a game that would likely have drawn a huge rating anyway. Prediction: 14.5.
- Monday Night Football on ESPN, Washington/Eagles, 8:30 PM — The second season of Monday Night Football will likely pale in comparison to the first, in regards to television ratings. Last year, the comparable Jaguars/Steelers game posted an 8.8 rating. Prediction: 7.6.
