First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- U.S. Open on CBS (Saturday and Sunday). Predictions: 2.1 and 2.3. Final ratings: 1.2 and 1.5. Ratings for coverage on Labor Day are unavailable. The combined 1.4 average from Saturday and Sunday coverage this year is poor to say the least. The Open did prove to be a huge draw for USA last week, as the Andy Roddick/Roger Federer quarterfinal drew a 2.2 cable rating.
- College football on ABC, Regional coverage. Prediction: 4.2. Final rating: 2.4. The 2.4 rating is up 14% from a 2.1 overnight, though it is still unusually low for a college football telecast. Final ratings from last year’s comparable game are unavailable. The 2.1 overnight for the game was down 45% from last year.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Tennessee/Cal. Prediction: 4.8. Final rating: 3.3. A huge drop from last year for the debut of Saturday Night Football. The 3.3 rating is off 39% from a 5.4 rating for the comparable Notre Dame/Georgia Tech telecast last year.
- Notre Dame Football on NBC, Georgia Tech/Notre Dame. Prediction: 4.9. Final rating: 2.4. NBC’s first Notre Dame telecast of the season was down 49% from the network’s first Irish broadcast last year, a game against Penn State. The 2.4 is also down 56% from the Irish/Yellow Jackets game last year, though that telecast aired in prime time nationally on ABC.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action. Prediction: 1.9. Final rating: 1.4. Airing baseball opposite college football led to the lowest ratings of the season for FOX. The 1.4/3 is the lowest rating for a baseball game on FOX in at least the past two seasons.
- NASCAR on ESPN, Sharp Aquos 400. Prediction: 4.4. Final rating: 3.7. ESPN finishes its NASCAR slate with its third-highest rated race of the season. Despite relatively strong ratings, ESPN’s five telecasts finished down “15.6% in ratings and 15.2% in viewers from last year“. Still, the 3.7 average for the five NASCAR races on ESPN is 85% higher than the 2.0 average for regular season NBA games on ABC this year, and 48% higher than the 2.5 average for regular season baseball games on FOX in 2006.
Ratings for “WNBA Playoffs on ABC: Fever/Shock”, “IRL on ABC, Detroit Grand Prix” and “College Football on ESPN, Florida State/Clemson” are unavailable. Blame Labor Day weekend.
This week’s predictions:
- U.S. Open on CBS, Women’s Final, Henin/Kusnetzova, 8:00 PM Sunday — Two former champions will vie for the U.S. Open title, though both are essentially nobodies to most of America. The last time Justine Henin played in the U.S. Open final was last year, when her loss to Maria Sharapova drew a 2.4 rating. When Svetlana Kusnetzova won the U.S. Open in 2004, the final averaged a record low 2.2 rating. Opposite NASCAR on ABC, look for a new record low. Prediction: 1.7.
- U.S. Open on CBS, Men’s Final, Federer/whoever, 4:00 PM Sunday — Once Roger Federer dusts off Nikolay Davydenko tomorrow, look for his match against the winner of Djokovic/Ferrer to be a ratings bust. In the last two years, Federer has played an American in the final, and the ratings have been decent (a 4.8 versus Andre Agassi in 2005, and a 4.1 versus Andy Roddick last year). Playing someone not born on American soil (and not named Rafael Nadal) means Federer will likely win his twelfth Grand Slam in front of a very small television audience. Prediction: 2.6.
- NASCAR on ABC, Chevy Rock & Roll 400, 7:30 PM Saturday — Displacing Saturday Night Football on ABC, NASCAR makes its first appearance on network television since the Monday before the NBA Finals. Coming off of decent, though disappointing, numbers on cable, look for NASCAR to do well in its return to ABC. Prediction: 4.7.
- MLB on FOX, Regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — FOX might be in “not caring” mode, as the three games on the slate this Saturday are less than inspiring. White Sox/Twins, Marlins/Phillies and Dodgers/Giants each involve at least one team that does not have a chance at the playoffs. Luckily for FOX, the game is opposite a shallow line-up of college football games. ABC has a battle of unranked teams, while CBS, NBC and ESPN have nothing. Prediction: 2.1.
- College football on ABC, Miami at Oklahoma, 12:00 PM Saturday — Three or four years ago, this game would have drawn at least a 5 rating in any timeslot. However, with both teams having fallen on relatively hard times in recent years, and with a high noon start, look for a mediocre number for ABC. Prediction: 3.1.
- College football on ABC, Oregon at Michigan, 3:30 PM Saturday — It remains to be seen if Michigan will become a curiosity of sorts, at least for this week. Casual fans may tune in to see how the Wolverines react after their humiliating defeat to Appalachian State, or they may be turned off by the fact that neither team is in the Top 25. Prediction: 3.5.
- NFL on FOX and CBS, Regional action, 1:00 PM Sunday — The start of the NFL season should draw numbers that will put most other sporting events to shame. Prediction: 7.6 and 8.5.
- NFL on FOX, Bears at Chargers, 4:00 PM Sunday — The #3 media market in the U.S. versus LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers should equal a relatively huge rating. However, look for the number for this game to fall short of the 14.3 for Cowboys/Jaguars last season. Prediction: 13.5.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Giants at Cowboys, 8:00 PM Sunday — The #1 and #5 media markets meet in a battle of huge NFL personalities — Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. The teams met on FOX last year, and the game drew a 17.8 rating with 27 million viewers. While NBC should fall short of that lofty goal on Sunday night, look for a huge number. Prediction: 15.9.
- IRL on ABC, Peak Antifreeze IndyCar 300, 4:00 PM Sunday — The final race of the IRL season will easily be buried by the start of the NFL season. Last year, the race could only muster a 0.7 on ABC; do not expect much to change this time around. Prediction: 0.8.
