The final game of the NFL regular season featured the New England Patriots going for a perfect regular season against the New York Giants, in a game that turned out to be the most watched regular season game in 12 years.
The final game of the NFL postseason features the Patriots going for a championship against the Giants, in a game that could be the most watched Super Bowl in 12 years — and potentially the most watched television program ever.
Sunday’s Super Bowl XLII between the Patriots and Giants does not quite have the drawing power a Patriots/Packers or Patriots/Cowboys match-up would have had. Still, there is no question Patriots/Giants could easily be the most watched Super Bowl ever — and the game has the potential to be the most watched television program in history.
Currently, the most watched Super Bowl is the 1996 game between the Steelers and Cowboys, which drew 94 million viewers. So far this season, the NFL has seen its four highest rated regular season games since ’96, its most viewed Divisional Round since ’96, and its biggest Conference Championship audience since ’96. If the Super Bowl continues that trend, the NFL is looking at its most watched game ever.
If Super Bowl XLII does draw over 94 million viewers, the game will become the second most watched television program in television history, behind only the series finale of M*A*S*H, which drew 106 million viewers in 1983. While 106 million viewers seems out of the realm of possibility even for the Super Bowl, some believe the game can cross the 100 million threshold.
The high expectations led to FOX Sports President Ed Goren being asked during a conference call this week if he would be disappointed with anything lower than a 50 rating. No Super Bowl has ever drawn a 50 rating, and the highest rated Super Bowl occurred in 1982, when 49ers/Bengals drew a 49.1. Goren tempered the talk of a 50 rating with a realistic take, saying “[i]n today?s world I don?t think you can get a rating of 50. But I think if the game is competitive it will be one of the most-watched television shows ever.”
With talk of ratings of 50+ and hundreds of millions of viewers, it would not be surprising if FOX is somewhat disappointed with the results of Super Bowl XLII. While the game could easily be the most watched Super Bowl ever, drawing 100 million viewers would be an almost unthinkable feat. Viewership for the Super Bowl is so high already, there would appear to be a ceiling effect that would make such a high number seemingly improbable.
Even if the game falls short of a 50 rating and 100 million viewers, there is no question Patriots/Giants is a strong candidate to knock off Steelers/Cowboys as the most watched Super Bowl ever. Last year’s Colts/Bears game came closest to Super Bowl XXX, drawing 93.2 million viewers; it will not take much for a game with far more intrigue than last year’s battle to improve on those numbers. Houston Chronicle writer David Barron seems to have the most accurate prediction, forecasting a 44 rating and 98 million viewers for the game.
No matter what, the biggest winners on Sunday night will not be the Patriots or the Giants. Instead, the NFL, FOX, and all of the advertisers who ponied up over $2.7 million dollars for a 30 second spot will biggest beneficiaries of what figures to be a Super Sunday of superb ratings.
