First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- College basketball on ESPN, UNC/Duke. Prediction: 2.5. Final rating: 3.4. The rivalry between Duke and UNC gave ESPN its most watched college basketball game ever.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Suns. Prediction: 2.4. Final rating: 2.1. The 2.1 for the Suns close victory over the Spurs is disappointing, considering the rivalry between the teams and the addition of Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix. Still, the 2.1 rating is a 62% increase over the 1.3 for Nuggets/Kings last season.
- NHL on NBC, Penguins/Capitals. Prediction: 1.2. Final rating: 0.8. Despite the presence of Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, the NHL on NBC yet again finished with a 0.8 rating. So far this season, no game except for the Winter Classic has even drawn a 0.9.
- NASCAR on FOX, Kobalt Tools 500. Prediction: 6.6. Final rating: 6.4. NASCAR is in good company; the only other sport that can draw ratings above a 6.0 on a weekly basis is the NFL. The 6.4 for the Kobalt Tools 500 on Sunday marks a 23% jump from the 5.2 for the same event last year, when it aired opposite the NCAA Tournament.
- NBA on ABC, Bulls/Cavaliers (3/2). Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 2.1. ABC drew surprisingly strong ratings for this match-up of mediocre Eastern Conference teams two weeks ago.
- NBA on ABC, Mavericks/Lakers (3/2). Prediction: 3.1. Final rating: 3.0. The 3.0 for the Lakers’ overtime victory over the Mavericks is the highest rating for a non-Christmas NBA regular season game in three years. Perhaps even more impressive, the 3.0 also marked a 58% increase over the comparable Lakers/Suns game last year.
- AFL on ABC, Desperados/Force (3/2). Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 0.6. The general assumption is that going to ESPN will help any sport. However, having a weekly broadcast presence on NBC was far more beneficial to the AFL than being buried each week on ESPN2. Take note, NHL.
This week’s predictions.
- NCAA Tournament Selection Show on CBS, 6 PM Sunday — While the Selection Show always draws big numbers, ratings have been declining in recent years. Last year’s show drew a 4.3, down from a 4.6 in ’06 and a 4.9 in ’05. While the show figures to be the second-highest rated sporting event of the weekend (behind NASCAR), look for the trend to continue. Prediction: 4.1.
- ACC Championship Game on ESPN, TBA, 1 PM Sunday — ESPN has to be rooting for Duke. Last year, ratings for the ACC Championship Game fell 26% without the Blue Devils. Prediction: 1.7.
- NBA on ABC, Hornets/Pistons, 1 PM Sunday — This is a match-up of one of the best in the West versus a beast from the East. Unfortunately for ABC, the Hornets are not mainstream enough to draw huge numbers, and the Pistons have never been much of an individual draw. Opposite the ACC Championship Game, look for mediocre numbers. Prediction: 1.7.
- NBA on ABC, Lakers/Rockets, 3:30 PM Sunday — Everything depends on the Charlotte Bobcats. If Houston beats Charlotte, and has a 21 game winning streak heading into Sunday, Lakers/Rockets could draw huge numbers. If the Rockets lose, the game still figures to draw a decent audience, but not one close to what could have been. Regardless, with college basketball ruling the airwaves, the ratings for this game would have been far better on almost any other Sunday. Prediction: 2.4.
- NASCAR on FOX, Food City 500, 1:30 PM Sunday — NASCAR ratings are on the rise this season, and that trend figures to continue this Sunday. Ratings for the Food City 500 are a lock to improve from last year’s 5.1, as the ’07 edition of the race aired during the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Prediction: 5.9.
- PGA Tour on NBC, Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2:30 PM Sunday — So far this season, ratings for events in which Tiger Woods plays are 52% higher than ratings for events he skips. With that in mind, one would imagine NBC has to ecstatic about Woods’ participation in the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. However, when Woods played in the event last year, the final round drew a mere 2.1 opposite college basketball. Prediction: 2.7.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Penguins, 12 PM Sunday — NBC did not do this game any favors by handing it a noon start time. That being said, even a prime-time slot may not be able to help the NHL on NBC this season. Only the Winter Classic on January 1 has drawn a rating higher than 0.8. Prediction: 0.7.
