First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Suns/Spurs. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 3.2. Game 1 of what was supposed to be a heavyweight match-up did not disappoint in the ratings. The 3.2 rating for the Spurs apparently series-clinching Game 1 victory over the Suns marks a 45% increase over a 2.2 for Heat/Bulls last year.
- NBA on ABC, Nuggets/Lakers. Prediction: 3.4. Final rating: 3.5. The Lakers are always a big draw. The 3.5 for the Lakers’ Game 1 win over the Nuggets is a 17% increase over the 3.0 for their loss last year against the Suns. More importantly, the 3.5 is the highest rating for an playoff game on opening weekend since 2003, when Lakers/Timberwolves drew a 4.1.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Capitals. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 0.9. The 0.9 for the Capitals’ Game 5 win over Philadelphia marks a 13% increase over the comparable Flames/Red Wings game last year.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Predators. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: 1.0. NBC drew a 1.0 rating for likely the first time since the Winter Classic, thanks to the Red Wings’ series clinching Game 6 win over the Predators. The 1.0 rating marks a 43% increase over the 0.7 for Devils/Lightning a year ago.
- MLB on FOX, Mets/Phillies or other regional action. Prediction: 2.3. Final rating: 1.9. No Yankees plus no Red Sox equals big declines. The 1.9 for regional action on FOX last Saturday marks an unsurprising 41% plummet from a 3.2 for Yankees/Red Sox last year. Through three weeks, MLB on FOX is averaging a 2.3 rating, down 15% from a 2.7 through the same point last season.
This week’s predictions:
- NFL Draft on ESPN, 3 PM Saturday — The NFL Draft is almost entirely a creature of television promotion. After months of previews and hype, the big event is here. With a later start time and coverage cut down from eight hours to five hours, look for ratings to improve by default. Last year, the draft drew a 3.6. Prediction: 3.9.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Wizards, 1 PM Sunday — This series has lost some of its luster, thanks to back-to-back 30 point blowouts. Will there be enough buzz surrounding Game 4 to generate higher ratings? Last year, the comparable Bulls/Heat Game 4 drew a 2.4 rating. Prediction: 2.6.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Suns, 3:30 PM Sunday — A series that got off to such a great start on the court and in the ratings now looks like a major dud. With the Suns down 3-0, interest in this series will almost certainly diminish. It may be tough for Game 4 to even match the rating from Game 1. Prediction: 3.1.
- NHL on NBC, Avalanche/Red Wings, 3 PM Saturday — At one point, this was the most high profile match-up in the NHL. Avalanche/Red Wings was usually the only NHL game ESPN would promote each year. With the teams now meeting in the playoffs, NBC has to hope casual fans still have residual memories of the rivalry. Prediction: 0.9.
- NHL on NBC, Rangers/Penguins, 2 PM Sunday — While there is little doubt NBC would have preferred a Crosby/Ovechkin series, the network can breathe easily with the Penguins taking on the team from the largest market in the nation. Can Penguins/Rangers give NBC some of its highest ever playoff ratings? Prediction: 1.1.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Indians or other regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — The Yankees are the biggest draw in baseball, and no other team (including the Red Sox) is even close. With New York battling the team that bumped them from the playoffs last year, look for a solid rating. Prediction: 2.7.
- NASCAR on FOX, Aaron’s 499, 1:30 PM Sunday — On a weekend featuring the NBA Playoffs and the NFL Draft, NASCAR will easily be the highest rated sporting event. Last year’s Aaron’s 499 drew a 5.4. Prediction: 5.7.









