First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- Golf on CBS, The Masters, Third Round. Prediction: 6.7. Final rating: 5.6. Final ratings for The Masters fell slightly on both Saturday and Sunday. Third round coverage dropped 5% from a 5.9 last year.
- Golf on CBS, The Masters, Final Round. Prediction: 9.5. Final rating: 8.6. Final round coverage of The Masters drew an 8.6 rating on Sunday, down 5% from a 9.1 in ’07. The 8.6 is the lowest final round rating for The Masters since 2006.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox. Prediction: 3.2. Final rating: 2.7. FOX may have earned the ire of New York and Boston area sports fans when it cut away from Yankees/Red Sox in favor of NASCAR, but the network was vindicated in the ratings. Yankees/Red Sox drew a 2.7 — down 16% from the 3.2 their first meeting on FOX drew last year. Meanwhile, the NASCAR race drew a 4.4.
- MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Red Sox. Prediction: 3.6. Final rating: 2.6. Fans are tiring of Yankees/Red Sox. The 2.6 rating for the Sunday Night Baseball game featuring the rivals marks a 26% drop from the 3.5 for the first Sunday night meeting between the teams last year.
- NBA on ABC, Raptors/Pistons. Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 1.6. Surprisingly, Raptors/Pistons finished with a better rating than Warriors/Hornets a week earlier. The 1.6 rating for Toronto/Detroit marked a 14% increase over the comparable Bulls/Wizards game in ’07.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Lakers. Prediction: 3.0. Final rating: 2.4. While the 2.4 for Spurs/Lakers is disappointing, considering how well other Laker games have performed in the ratings, the game still gave ABC a 9% bump over the comparable Spurs/Mavericks game a year earlier.
- NHL on NBC, Predators/Red Wings. Prediction: 1.1. Final rating: 0.8. Amazingly, NHL ratings have not improved with the start of the playoffs. The 0.8 for Game 2 between the Predators and Red Wings marks a 20% drop from Penguins/Senators and Rangers/Thrashers in ’07.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Capitals. Prediction: 1.4. Final rating: 0.8. Alex Ovechkin could not help NBC’s NHL ratings. Game 2 between the Flyers and Captials drew a mere 0.8 rating on Sunday, down 20% from the comparable Flames/Red Wings game last year.
- MLB on TBS, Red Sox/Blue Jays (4/6). Prediction: 1.4. Final rating: 0.6. TBS got off to a terrible start for its new Sunday afternoon baseball package. Boston/Toronto drew a 0.6 rating two weeks ago — by comparison, Braves games averaged a 0.8 on the network last season.
- College basketball on CBS, UCLA/Memphis (4/5). Prediction: 8.0. Final rating: 7.2. The 2008 Men’s NCAA Tournament was the second lowest rated in history. The 7.2 rating for UCLA/Memphis marked a 14% decline from the 8.4 for Georgetown/Ohio State a year earlier. The other Final Four game, Kansas/UNC, was down only 1%.
- College basketball on ESPN, Stanford/Connecticut (4/6). Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.8. The 2008 Women’s NCAA Tournament was the most viewed ever on ESPN. The 1.8 for Stanford/Connecticut marked a 38% jump over the 1.3 for Rutgers/LSU in ’07.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Suns/Spurs, 3:00 PM Saturday — The 2008 NBA Playoffs begin on ABC with a heavyweight battle between Phoenix and San Antonio. While this series drew strong ratings last year, the fact that the rivals are playing in the first round should have some negative impact on the numbers. Since 2005, ABC has drawn ratings of 2.1, 2.4 and 2.2 for games on the first Saturday of the playoffs. Prediction: 2.7.
- NBA on ABC, Nuggets/Lakers, 3:00 PM Sunday — The Lakers are a big draw, and even more so when they have a legitimate chance of winning the NBA Finals. Facing Allen Iverson and the Nuggets, look for L.A. to help ABC to a decent rating on Sunday. Last year, Lakers/Suns drew a disappointing 3.0 rating. Prediction: 3.4.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Captials, 1:00 PM Saturday — The NHL is tantalizingly close to a Crosby/Ovechkin second round series. Unfortunately for the league, the Flyers are about to knock Alex the Great right out of the playoffs. Amazingly, NBC has yet to draw a 1.0 rating for an NHL game since the Winter Classic, regular season or otherwise. Prediction: 0.8.
- NHL on NBC, Red Wings/Predators, 3:00 PM Sunday — This game would have been more interesting had Nashville won in overtime last night. As it is, the Red Wings are going for a 4-2 series victory. Prediction: 0.8.
- MLB on FOX, Mets/Phillies or other regional action, 3:30 PM Saturday — Last year, MLB on FOX actually drew a better rating than the NBA Playoffs on ABC. Of course, the baseball game on FOX that weekend was Yankees/Red Sox. Do not look for a repeat of last year. Prediction: 2.3.
