First, the results of last week’s predictions:
- College basketball on ESPN, Tennessee/LSU. Prediction: 1.8. Final rating: 2.4. Excluding NASCAR and the Men’s NCAA Tournament, Tennessee/LSU was the highest rated sporting event of the entire weekend — beating baseball and NBA games that aired on broadcast. The 2.4 for Tennessee/LSU marks a 20% jump over the 2.0 for Tennessee/UNC last year.
- MLB on FOX, Mets/Braves or other regional action. Prediction: 2.5. Final rating: 2.2. Ratings for the season debut of baseball on FOX fell 8% from last year. Last season, MLB on FOX drew the lowest average rating ever for baseball on network TV.
- NBA on ABC, Warriors/Hornets. Prediction: 1.7. Final rating: 1.4. Despite leading the Western Conference and having a star, MVP-caliber point guard, the Hornets are not much of a draw yet. A long playoff run may help their box office appeal.
- NBA on ABC, Mavericks/Suns. Prediction: 2.0. Final rating: 2.2. Shaquille O’Neal and Jason Kidd could not help the ratings for this Western showdown. Mavericks/Suns dropped 8% from a 2.4 rating for the same match-up last year, when the teams were the best in the NBA. The final rating fell a whopping .7 ratings points from the overnight.
- NHL on NBC, Blackhawks/Red Wings. Prediction: 0.7. Final rating: 0.6. Excluding the Winter Classic and the Flyers/Penguins game on March 16 — final national ratings for that game are unavailable — NBC did not draw a 1.0 rating even once during the NHL season. The 0.6 for Chicago/Detroit marks a 14% drop from the 0.7 for comparable regional action last year.
- NASCAR on FOX, Samsung 500. Prediction: 5.8. Final rating: 5.4. NASCAR drew mixed ratings for the Samsung 500. The 5.4 marks a 4% drop from the 5.6 for the same race last year, when it aired on April 15. However, the 5.4 also marks a 2% increase over the 5.3 for the race on the comparable date last year, the Goody’s Cool Orange 500.
Ratings for Memphis/UCLA on CBS, Stanford/Connecticut on ESPN and Red Sox/Blue Jays on TBS currently unavailable.
This week’s predictions:
- Golf on CBS, The Masters, Third Round, 3:30 PM Saturday — The ESPN hype machine is giving The Masters more attention than ever before. Will that translate to better numbers on CBS? Last year, the third round drew a 5.9 rating. Prediction: 6.7.
- Golf on CBS, The Masters, Final Round, 2:30 PM Sunday — Last year, the final round of The Masters drew a 9.1. The last time Tiger Woods won the event, it drew a 9.8. Look for a rating in that range for the ’08 version. Prediction: 9.5.
- MLB on FOX, Yankees/Red Sox, 3:30 PM Saturday — While some of the hype may be due to East Coast Bias, there is no question the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is the biggest draw in baseball. Last year, ratings for games between the teams were 36% higher than ratings for other games on FOX. Prediction: 3.2.
- MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Red Sox, 8 PM Sunday — Last year, ESPN averaged a 4.0 cable rating for Sunday night Yankees/Red Sox games, up 82% from the season average of 2.2. Expect another big rating this Sunday. Prediction: 3.6.
- NBA on ABC, Raptors/Pistons, 1:00 PM Sunday — Ratings for NBA games on ABC are up 15% this year, but match-ups like Toronto/Detroit certainly do not help. With Toronto not counting in U.S. television ratings and the Pistons essentially shutting down for the playoffs, even the most ardent NBA fan will be hard pressed to tune in. Prediction: 1.0.
- NBA on ABC, Spurs/Lakers, 3:30 PM Sunday — The Lakers are the NBA’s Yankees/Red Sox. With playoff positioning on the line, their battle against the defending champion Spurs figures to be a ratings hit. Prediction: 3.0.
- NHL on NBC, Predators/Red Wings, 2 PM Saturday — The Stanley Cup Playoffs are underway, and the ratings figure to be far better than in the regular season. Last year, the comparable Penguins/Senators game drew a 1.0 rating. Prediction: 1.1.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Capitals, 2 PM Sunday — Alex Ovechkin gets the national spotlight all to himself. Look for the Capitals’ superstar to give NBC’s ratings a major boost. This game has the potential to draw a bigger rating than the Raptors/Pistons game on ABC. Prediction: 1.4.
