First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- NBA on ABC, Cavaliers/Celtics. Prediction: 5.7. Final rating: 5.7. Game 7 between the Cavaliers and Celtics drew a strong 5.7 rating on ABC last Sunday, up 84% from a 3.1 for Jazz/Spurs Game 1 last year. Compared to Cavaliers/Pistons Game 7 two years ago, however, the rating was down 6%. The game finished as the highest rated, most watched sporting event of the weekend, averaging nearly 800,000 more viewers than The Preakness Stakes on NBC.
- Horse racing on NBC, The Preakness Stakes. Prediction: 6.7. Final rating: 5.5. Ratings for The Preakness were down 4% from last year, despite the presence of Triple Crown hopeful Big Brown.
- NHL on NBC, Stars/Red Wings. Prediction: 1.0. Final rating: 1.1. Game 5 between the Red Wings and Stars drew a relatively decent audience on NBC. The 1.1 rating marks a 22% increase from a 0.9 for Senators/Sabres last year.
- NHL on NBC, Flyers/Penguins. Prediction: 1.6. Final rating: 1.4. The 1.4 rating for the Penguins series clinching win over the Flyers is even with Ducks/Red Wings Game 5 last year, but the 2.5 million viewers is the most for a non-Finals NHL Playoff game since 2002.
- WNBA on ABC, Sparks/Mercury. Prediction: 0.9. Final rating: 0.8. Candace Parker and the big market Los Angeles Sparks helped the WNBA to a big increase in ratings. The 0.8 final rating for Sparks/Mercury last Saturday was up 60% from a 0.5 for Monarchs/Shock last year. In New York, the game outdrew the competing Stars/Red Wings game on NBC.
- MLB on ESPN, Yankees/Mets. Prediction: 2.7. Final rating: 2.3. ESPN drew a solid audience for the Subway Series last Sunday night, but the Mets’ win over the Yankees was down 4% in ratings and total viewers, and off 12% in the key men 18-34 demographic.
This week’s predictions:
- NBA on ABC, Celtics/Pistons, 8:30 PM Saturday — Saturday night is not very conducive to good ratings. ABC has averaged a mere 3.2 rating for the five Saturday night NBA games it has aired in the past six years. Last year, Game 3 between the Spurs and Jazz drew a 3.1, tied as lowest rating ever for a Conference Final game on broadcast. While Celtics/Pistons figures to fare better, do not expect huge numbers.Prediction: 3.8.
- NHL on Versus, Penguins/Red Wings, 8 PM Saturday — Arguably, this match-up is more important to the NHL than Celtics/Lakers would be to the NBA. Sidney Crosby and the Penguins versus the perennial contenders in Detroit. While this game should get blown out by Celtics/Pistons nationally, look for Game 1 to draw the biggest audience in Versus history. Prediction: 1.7.
- IRL on ABC, Indianapolis 500, 1 PM Sunday — Open wheel racing is having a good year. The IRL and Champ Car finally unified, and Danica Patrick has been in the news after she finally won a race. Now comes the true test of the IRL’s popularity: can the Indy 500 reverse the trend of declining ratings? Last year’s rain soaked race drew a 4.3 final rating. Prediction: 4.9.
- NASCAR on FOX, Coca Cola 600, 5 PM Sunday — Last year, the Coca Cola 600 beat the Indy 500 head to head for the first time in three years. While there is little question NASCAR is far more popular than the IRL, look for the Coca Cola 600 to settle for second place this weekend. Last year, the race drew a 4.5 rating. Prediction: 4.7.
- NBA on TNT, Lakers/Spurs, 8:30 PM Sunday — The Lakers are always a big draw. Game 1 of their series against the San Antonio Spurs was the highest rated Western Conference Final game since Game 6 of the Mavericks/Suns series two years ago. Expect Game 5 to put up impressive numbers on Sunday night. Prediction: 4.3.
