The NBA and NHL are in the midst of a ratings renaissance.
Both leagues have seen major increases for playoff ratings. Versus recently aired its highest rated, most viewed NHL telecast. ESPN is coming off of its highest rated, most viewed first round of the NBA Playoffs. TNT is seeing some of its best NBA Playoff ratings since 1994.
All of this seems to indicate that the NBA and NHL are finally back. After all, both leagues suffered through record low ratings last year, and the perception that neither league was very relevant on the sports landscape.
But just as that perception was incorrect last year, there is also something wrong with the thought that both leagues are ‘back’ this year. Judging any league on the basis of one year usually results in faulty analysis.
The NBA has been ‘back’ several times this decade. The league was ‘back’ in 2004, when the Lakers/Pistons Finals drew the best numbers in years. Then it died again in 2005, thanks to the Ron Artest brawl, a low rated finals, and a near-lockout. It was resurrected again in 2006, with one of the best playoffs ever, and died again in 2007 with one of the worst playoffs ever. And now, the league is back yet again in 2008.
Perhaps it makes more sense not to view the league as Lazarus, coming back from the dead every other year, but instead as an entity that has good years and bad years. 2007 was a bad year, and 2008 — thus far — has been a good year. And the same way the success of 2008 does not necessarily mean the league is on its way to a major, long lasting revival, the failures of 2007 did not mean the league was on its way to ruin.
The same can be said of the NHL, though that league has had more bad years than good years recently. Certainly, a lockout that cancels an entire season is cause to worry about the league’s future. However, judging the Stanley Cup Finals based on the ratings for three series involving teams from Canada — which does not count in U.S. television ratings — lends itself to a potentially skewed analysis of the league’s actual popularity.
There is little doubt that had Red Wings played the Sabres in the finals last year, ratings would have been far better than the 1.6 for Ducks/Senators. Similarly, there is little doubt that if the Montreal Canadiens had gone to the Stanley Cup Finals this year, ratings would have been poor yet again.
Match-ups often have more of an impact on ratings than a league’s popularity. The NBA may be back so far, but there is still the possibility of a Spurs/Pistons NBA Finals — which could lead to more talk of the league being ‘dead’ come June.
If one is going to use television ratings to judge a league’s popularity, perhaps using data from a single season — or worse, a single series — is not the best way to go about it.
Related: “Their demise is greatly exaggerated.” and “Why rock bottom can be a good thing.”
