First, the results of last week’s predictions.
- MLB on FOX, Phillies/Dodgers (Game 3). Prediction: 7.3. Final rating: 5.6. The Dodgers’ lone win in the NLCS was the highest rated game of the series. The 5.6 for Game 3 last Sunday night was down 15% from a 6.6 for Red Sox/Indians Game 3 last year, which aired on FOX, but up 75% from Game 3 of last year’s NLCS, which aired on TBS. Overall, not a single game of the NLCS drew a rating of 6 or higher, making it the first League Championship Series in at least the past six years to hold that distinction.
- MLB on TBS, Red Sox/Rays (Game 2). Prediction: 4.0. Final rating: 3.8. Cable network TBS beat its broadcast competition last Saturday, as the extra inning classic between the Rays and Red Sox edged a NASCAR race on ABC and LSU/Florida on CBS in total viewers.
- NBA on TNT, Nuggets/Suns. Prediction: 0.8. Final rating: N/A.
- NASCAR on ABC, Bank of America 500. Prediction: 4.1. Final rating: 3.8. Ratings for the Bank of America 500 were off 10% from last year, and 19% from 2006.
- College football on ABC, Oklahoma/Texas. Prediction: 6.1. Final rating: 5.4. The 5.4 for last week’s heavyweight matchup between then #1 Oklahoma and then #5 Texas was the second best for a college football game this season, behind Ohio State/USC in September.
- College football on ABC, regional. Prediction: 4.9. Final rating: 4.6. Thanks to a lead-in from Oklahoma/Texas, regional action on ABC last Saturday saw a 31% increase in ratings from ’07. The 4.6 also marks the third-highest rating for a college football game this year.
- SEC on CBS, LSU/Florida. Prediction: 5.1. Final rating: 3.8. Not surprisingly, Florida’s beat down of LSU last Saturday drew far fewer eyeballs than their tightly-contested battle a year ago. The 3.8 for the game on CBS was down 28% from a 5.3 for the same prime time match-up in ’07.
- NFL on FOX, Cowboys/Cardinals. Prediction: 13.3. Final rating: 14.7. Win or lose, the Cowboys’ continue to reel in viewers. The 14.7 for their matchup against the Cardinals last Sunday was the best of the season for an NFL game, though it was actually down 18% from an 18.0 for the comparable game last year — which also involved the Cowboys.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Patriots/Chargers. Prediction: 9.0. Final rating: 8.2. Without Tom Brady and no longer pursuing perfection, the New England Patriots are not the draw they used to be. The 8.2 for their loss to the Chargers last Sunday was the lowest rating of the year so far on NBC.
This week’s predictions:
- MLB on TBS, Red Sox/Rays, 8 PM Saturday — Steve Harvey Show aside, TBS should draw strong numbers Game 6 of the ALCS. That being said, airing on a low-rated Saturday night should put a damper on the numbers. Last year, Game 6 between the Red Sox and Indians drew a 6.6 rating on a Saturday night on FOX, down 22% from Game 5 the previous Thursday. Prediction: 4.4.
- MLB on TBS, Red Sox/Rays, 8 PM Sunday — The deciding game of the ALCS could be the most viewed baseball game ever on cable. Last year, Game 7 between the Red Sox and Indians drew an 11.7 rating on FOX. In 2005, TNT drew a 6.2 rating and 9.1 million viewers for Game 7 of the Pistons/Heat NBA Conference Final, the only other time Game 7 of an MLB LCS or NBA Conference Final has aired on cable. Prediction: 7.1.
- Saturday Night Football on ABC, Missouri/Texas, 8 PM Saturday — Opposite baseball on TBS, look for this college football battle to hold its own in the ratings. Last year, a less interesting Michigan/Illinois matchup drew a 3.0 opposite Indians/Red Sox Game 6. Prediction: 4.7.
- NASCAR on ABC, Tums QuikPak 500, 1:30 PM Sunday — Considering that races air opposite the NFL every Sunday during the fall, NASCAR is not doing horribly in the ratings. Still, for a sport that only has one telecast per week, too many races are drawing less than 4% of TV households. The race on the comparable date last year, the Subway 500, drew a 3.7 rating.Prediction: 3.8.
- NFL on CBS, Colts/Packers, 4:15 PM Sunday — Peyton Manning playing at Lambeau Field should be enough of a draw to give CBS strong ratings on Sunday, though it may be too much to ask for this game to beat the 14.8 for last year’s Vikings/Cowboys matchup. Prediction: 14.2.
- Sunday Night Football on NBC, Seahawks/Buccaneers, 8:15 PM Sunday — This less-than-sexy matchup figures to get swamped by a potential Game 7 of the ALCS, despite the latter airing on cable. Last year, Steelers/Broncos drew an 8.3 opposite Indians/Red Sox Game 7. Prediction: 7.6 (Game 7), 8.4 (no Game 7).
